Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

Rivian is currently producing about 194 vehicles per day. It will be interesting to see how fast Tesla Cybertruck catches up to and exceeds that number. My completely unqualified guess is August this year.

Jmho.

 

[Mengy]

James from InvestAnswers puts TLSA fair value at $517 by the end of 2025: (via Cyberbulls)

• $249 for Auto
• $154 for Megapack
• $75 for FSD
• $24 for Autobidder
• others

View attachment 1019248

The big "other" is Optimus Bot, which James has at just 1.7% of TSLA value by end of 2025, but ballooning dramatically over the next 2 years. As always, timing is uncertain.

Cheers to the Longs!

I think this estimate is reasonable. I personally think TSLA will be slightly lower by EoY 2025, but the timing could easily go either direction, the trend is the important part. And I too believe TSLA will likely balloon a bit after 2025, I'm looking for that timeframe to be our next big rally upward. The financials and production timing all point to this IMHO.

 

[GhostSkater]

Rivian is currently producing about 194 vehicles per day. It will be interesting to see how fast Tesla Cybertruck catches up to and exceeds that number. My completely unqualified guess is August this year.

Jmho.

Seem too fay away with estimates between 50 and 80 a day currently, and also I think we should exclude the EDV from the comparison, and even more maybe consider just the R1T

I think a more interesting number to look is when Cybertruck production is more than R1T/R1S/Lightning/Silverado(lol)/Hummer combined

They don't break down by model right? Couldn't find it

 

[Artful Dodger]

To say that ship climbed like a homesick angel is not to trivialize the feat: it was breathtaking, visceral in the way only pilots ^and Tesla drivers^ can appreciate.

FTFM.

Cheers to the Long Weekenders!

 

[Artful Dodger]

My question is, how long until it gets at least autopilot.

The Tesla FSD team says the NN starts to get noticably good at the driving task after the training system is fed about a million clips. So the question becomes, how long until the CT fleet can amass that much video data? Also, keep in mind that Tesla does have some in-house video generation tools which also can produce clips for the training system. But as Elon said, CT is necessarily the lowest priority for FSD right now: v12 fsd for Europe + China, HW4 support are all higher.

Cheers!

 

[GOVA]

I wonder how much it would matter now since a huge variety of residential heat pumps (split, whole house, a/c+Heat, A/c +hot water, air, water, geothermal, etc) are available and rapidly improving.

Where I am Fujitsu alone has five variants of split, air, A/C +hot water all for immediate delivery, all plug replaceable with existing Fujitsu split a/c only needed change is hot water/heated pool connections. I cannot count all the others from multiple countries with many variants.

Were i to have Tesla Powerwalls and heat pump available I'd be strongly inclined to buy them, even if more expensive. But...they are not.

The opportunity globally for Tesla Energy, including heat pump, would be huge, albeit difficult to quantify as competition proliferates. Now that Huawei has entered residential solar and HVAC markets in many countries in addition to their commercial/utility level products we can expect even more virulent competition, and probably price competition beyond the already amazing solar panel/power controller/inverter competition.

All this is good for the world and for The Mission, but for TSLA there si serious incentive to grow much more readily and manufacture, especially TE, more widely.

Every time some fool argues that Tesla is demand limited and price reductions are inevitably margin limiting I cringe. These 'pundits' are truly clueless about the worldwide transitions to sustainable energy. In part that is because much of the progress is supporting new growth more than it is replacement, so the data seem less significant. Part of it is ignorance. Part of it is geocentric or ethnocentric bias. Together those all make it easy to dismiss what are sometimes politically motivated ignorant of major competitors such as Huawei in some countries and even Tesla in some circles even in the US.

When we then consider the astounding level of FUD and the restless onslaught of the classic opponents of renewables it becomes even more obvious how myopic many of us, even here on TMC can be. It is very difficult to ignore the many attacks on both Tesla and the CEO, especially when the subject of this ire begin to react in hostility.

It is highly desirable to look as dispassionately as possible at the world demand for BEV of every type and class. Even more it is desirable to look dispassionately at global demand for every single part of energy generation, storage and distribution everywhere! Even grid services are in massive demand, just as much as are speakers to help intermediate those flections in grid sources and uses. The grids themselves are obsolescent to obsolete is all the North America all of Europe and virtually everywhere else. Right now the only country that is mobilizing aggressively for all this is China.

In much of the world politicians and business people bemoan Chinese dominance. Rather than compete, the response is to restrict the competitors. Were the non-Chinese to aggressively develop more efficient high voltage grids, better distributed load management and all the rest the world would be better off.

Tesla, let us remember, talked about all this as long ago as 2011, when J B Straubel talking over and over about the need and Elon Musk echoed that with actual deliveries, most notable the Hornsdale Power Reserve. Tesla Energy, by developing and deploying the Autobidder, set off the present day rush to grid stability and energy source variations.

So, for all of us, please stop this idiotic and absurd notion of demand-limited. That is untrue! It is true that Tesla has supply and destination imbalances, both driven by distribution narrowness (even in California!) and logistics/production narrowness. The future of Tesla si unquestionably more diverse in product lines production and distribution.

In the meantime, every time we look at a drone video from China, Germany or the US we see continuous repaid expansion and evolution. Each time we examine a Tesla product we see the same rapid evolution.
Costs per unit keep going down while quality and features rise. From time to time something goes awry so there si some type of temporary setback in, for example, Autopilot/FSD.windshiled wipers. Even, sometimes, Tesla realizes they cannot do everything themselves so buy, say, batteries/cells from everyone competent, solar panels from those who do then better/cheaper.

I look at all that and am amazed and redouble on HODL. In the meantime, I'll take delivery on my fourth new Tesla car next week.

Without question I'm quite impressed with BYD, too, even though none of their vehicles appeal to me. OTOH, on my street alone there are already BYD cars, mostly Dolphins. a neighbor just replaced a BMW with one of those. That, I don't really understand, but...it seems certain that I'll become a stationary storage customer of BYD next month. That one is sad; I'd pay a serious premium for Tesla Powerwalls. Even my installer laments that Powerwalls are not here in Brazil, he wants them for his own projects too.

When people are making suboptimal choices because they cannot buy Tesla how can any rational person really think they are demand-limited?

HODL and beg for more factories in more countries to supply enormous pent-up demand where no official Tesla has gone before, although lots of TSLA has been going enthusiastically.

Post of merit. Love.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Seem too fay away with estimates between 50 and 80 a day currently, and also I think we should exclude the EDV from the comparison, and even more maybe consider just the R1T

I think a more interesting number to look is when Cybertruck production is more than R1T/R1S/Lightning/Silverado(lol)/Hummer combined

They don't break down by model right? Couldn't find it

Yah. I couldn’t find a breakout number for RIT and R1S. Although it’s really more about the R1T

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758920947023626330

 

[bpjod]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758920947023626330

This is what happens when you prioritize getting re-elected over saving the planet.

Ironically, I think this will hasten the demise of the laggards.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Megapack Connected! (25:03) | 16 Feb 2024 Giga Texas Update | Joe Tegtmeyer

Possible production line equipment amongst this (red/white) - taken away and then being restocked. Joe speculates that this "might be part of that next generation line"

 

[Atomsla]

This is what happens when you prioritize getting re-elected over saving the planet.

Ironically, I think this will hasten the demise of the laggards.

I agree completely. This is not in their best interests.

 

[Hiline]

This is what happens when you prioritize getting re-elected over saving the planet.

Ironically, I think this will hasten the demise of the laggards.

That is just one narrative. I think the reality is that the legacy manufacturers are struggling with the transition and slapping a penalty on them makes the financial burden on them even heavier. The auto workers also need to buy time in order to be able to retire before the tail end of the EV revolution, because at that point most of them will be out of work anyway; electric car manufacturing is much less labor-intensive than gas car manufacturing.

 

[Mengy]

This is what happens when you prioritize getting re-elected over saving the planet.

Ironically, I think this will hasten the demise of the laggards.

Sadly, it probably will. I almost feel bad for the Big Three, they need to be all in on EV's and they are not.

 

[AndrewZ]

What would Trump do to all these things if he’s elected? I don’t follow domestic politics, like at all, but it sounds as if he wouldn’t be overly supportive.

 

[scaesare]

That is just one narrative. I think the reality is that the legacy manufacturers are struggling with the transition and slapping a penalty on them makes the financial burden on them even heavier. The auto workers also need to buy time in order to be able to retire before the tail end of the EV revolution, because at that point most of them will be out of work anyway; electric manufacturing is much less labor-intensive than gas car manufacturing.

(emphasis mine)

No doubt they are... the issue is WHY?

Quite frankly the writing has been on the wall for some years now... and the possibilities were understood well before that. We are talking decades now for at least 2 separate issues spelling the demise of fossil-fuel vehicles: CO2 emission in the environment and diminishing oil reserves.

Now ask yourself, who is at fault for either failing to recognize these significant risks to your business or ignoring them? In the organizations I've been in, it's the management and leadership.

This is especially egregious in light of things like the EV-1 project, and their purchase of NiMH battery patents (and the subsequent selling of them to the petroleum industry), only to shelve them and encumber their use in EVs.

In my opinion this goes beyond simply failing to kill the sacred cow (as did Kodak and Xerox), but rather exposes them as being complicit in cooperating with Big Oil in perpetrating Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt in order to protect their financial interests... taking a chapter from the tobacco industry playbook.

So... is it a financial burden going to make harder on them at this point, given their lagging so far behind? Yup. Is there anybody to blame but themselves? Nope.

 

[scaesare]

Sadly, it probably will. I almost feel bad for the Big Three, they need to be all in on EV's and they are not.

If there wasn't a history of attempting to forestall the inevitable in order to protect profits regardless of the harm to the environment, I might as well.

But there's significant evidence this is of their own doing.

 

[SO16]

Overall fairly decent CNBC video about EVs in Norway.

But of course once again a journalist choosing a non-Tesla EV (for the first time of ever driving an EV) and then stating how difficult it is to charge and had range anxiety. I do agree that having multiple apps and accounts is a pain. That’s why I stick with Tesla 99.9% charging of the time (not counting destination chargers.)

But Tesla was extremely prevalent in the video and shown in an overall good light.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Overall fairly decent CNBC video about EVs in Norway.

But of course once again a journalist choosing a non-Tesla EV (for the first time of ever driving an EV)

... and yet they have a 'nose-cone' Model S in their thumbnail?

jolly jokers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If there wasn't a history of attempting to forestall the inevitable in order to protect profits regardless of the harm to the environment, I might as well. But there's significant evidence this is of their own doing.

Going back to at least 1938:

General Motors streetcar conspiracy - Wikipedia

Date	1938–1951
Location	United States
Accused	General Motors Firestone Standard Oil of California Phillips Petroleum Mack Trucks
Charges	Violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act
Verdict	GM fined $5,000

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758971457894224357