Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

Don't look at the 24 hour market for $TSLA as of this moment

Shortzes are working hard this evening!
wait no
Elon is selling the shares he just bought with the money he didn't have!
wait no...

never mind, just the regular programming. From a bottom, TSLA has almost always pulled back and consolidated for a few days shortly before or right at the 50 line on the daily RSI the first time it reaches this line (bottom panel).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Don't look at the 24 hour market for $TSLA as of this moment

Meh... looks like 197? Seems normal to me.

 

[Singuy]

Don't look at the 24 hour market for $TSLA as of this moment

I find a slight red premarket is usually followed up by a green day while we typically get a red day if we have a green pre market or a deep red premarket.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Looks like on TeslaFi there's about 40 in cue or installed for V12, all California (and one in Nevada).
Makes sense. No Az yet.

 

[spacerfc]

Tesla employees continue the fight against MSM FUD on X:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1759782863858491492

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1759885178166505595

 

[Mengy]

He was calling chartists who said the trend was bearish on TSLA all kinds of names from $300 down to $100. Granted, a lot of chartists are clueless, but $300 to $100? Come on man. SMR's acted like he's been right all along. I'm all in on TSLA but he's not someone I'd listen to for financial advice. That's not to say I think any more highly of Gerber.

SMR has a very long term outlook on TSLA, like a decade out horizon. So he isn't concerned with TSLA going from $300 down to $100 in one year's time as long as the fundamentals for Tesla are still strong and improving in positive directions, which they are.

I agree with SMR when he calls out the chartist's short term vision; TSLA's price today will look like a massive bargain 5-10 years from now when it's $1000+/share.

 

[mongo]

SMR has a very long term outlook on TSLA, like a decade out horizon. So he isn't concerned with TSLA going from $300 down to $100 in one year's time as long as the fundamentals for Tesla are still strong and improving in positive directions, which they are.

That's a company viability/ success point of view.

I agree with SMR when he calls out the chartist's short term vision; TSLA's price today will look like a massive bargain 5-10 years from now when it's $1000+/share.

That's a trading (investing for gain) point of view. And "bargain" is relative. There can be two bargains one of which is clearly superior.

$400 to $1,000 is 2.5x
$300 to $1,000 is 3.3x
$200 to $1,000 is 5x
$100 to $1,000 is 10x
Let's not get into presplit ratios...

For an oracle, Selling at $400, buying at $100, then $1,000 would have been 40x

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1759885178166505595

Confusing they are combining two weeks... Is that the average over two weeks or the sum? Some historical context in this plot:

Insurance registrations for major EV makers in China have dropped significantly over the past two weeks as people celebrate the traditional Chinese New Year holiday.

China EV insurance registrations in Feb 5-18: Nio 1,500, Xpeng 1,000, Li Auto 7,000, Tesla 8,200

Insurance registrations for major EV makers in China have dropped significantly over the past two weeks as people celebrate the traditional Chinese New Year holiday.

cnevpost.com

 

[AnbaricBike]

I'm late to the climate change party but I'm surprised nobody mentioned Elon's frequent advocacy for a carbon tax and his, correct, opinion that it an unpriced negative externality. I sure wish this idea would get some traction. In fact I think I prefer that approach to handing people cash to buy an EV.

 

[dl003]

SMR has a very long term outlook on TSLA, like a decade out horizon. So he isn't concerned with TSLA going from $300 down to $100 in one year's time as long as the fundamentals for Tesla are still strong and improving in positive directions, which they are.

I agree with SMR when he calls out the chartist's short term vision; TSLA's price today will look like a massive bargain 5-10 years from now when it's $1000+/share.

That's called moving the goal post. Acknowledge that:

1. There is a world outside of our obsession with Tesla
2. Not all people who say the stock will go down wish the company to fail
3. Being bullish on TSLA does not make you right in everything you say and everyone else wrong who disagrees with you

I have a very long term outlook on the Earth, about 5 billion years long to be exact. However, there is a group of people whose job is to predict whether it will rain in my city tomorrow. They're called meteorologists. They can be bad or good at their job. Their prediction may be well-founded or simply lucky guesses; that's not the point. The point there's an easy and definitive way to tell if they're right or wrong. If they say tomorrow it's going to rain and I call them idiots and it actually rains, then I will have been wrong. That has nothing to do with my conviction on life. You're investing in a company whose CEO is a feverish practitioner of the First Principle: “The only rules are the ones dictated by the laws of physics. Everything else is a recommendation.” 100 is 66.66666...6% less than 300 and SMR was wrong. Stop moving the goal post. That's Gordon Johnson's job.

It easy to say "but I wasn't concerned with..." after you've been proven wrong. If he was not concerned, then why insult them in the first place?

 

[Mengy]

That's called moving the goal post. Acknowledge that:

1. There is a world outside of our obsession with Tesla
2. Not all people who say the stock will go down wish the company to fail
3. Being bullish on TSLA does not make you right in everything you say and everyone else wrong who disagrees with you

I have a very long term outlook on the Earth, about 5 billion years long to be exact. However, there is a group of people whose job is to predict whether it will rain in my city tomorrow. They're called meteorologists. They can be bad or good at their job. Their prediction may be well-founded or simply lucky guesses; that's not the point. The point there's an easy and definitive way to tell if they're right or wrong. If they say tomorrow it's going to rain tonight and I call them idiots and it actually rains, then I will have been wrong. That has nothing to do with my conviction on life. You're investing in a company whose CEO is a feverish practitioner of the First Principle: “The only rules are the ones dictated by the laws of physics. Everything else is a recommendation.” 100 is 66.66666...6% less than 300 and SMR was wrong. Stop moving the goal post. That's Gordon Johnson's job.

So, are you saying you believe TSLA will be lower than it is today in 5-10 years? Or do you also agree with SMR and myself about that?

 

[dl003]

So, are you saying you believe TSLA will be lower than it is today in 5-10 years? Or do you also agree with SMR and myself about that?

I have addressed this in my numerous posts. Not gonna repeat it until you bring something more well thought out into the discussion. Read the post that you just quoted. It's all in there.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yup, picked up 25 @ 193.5
Guess we can count on FSD tricks to drag the stock artificially low... such nonsense.

Edit: Was a bargain.

 

[2daMoon]

SMR has a good analytical mind. His perspective can be very first principles oriented. Only, he's set himself a goal of putting out a video every day on YT (plus making content for his subscription channels).

This goal complicates things and often he doesn't have anything worthwhile to offer, but puts something out anyway. So, he tears into folks spreading FUD when he has spare time on his hands. These videos are boring to me. Not much in the way of useful information to be gleaned from them.

Those episodes I usually pass on. Watching someone nitpick a news channel's interview with GJ or others of that ilk is a time sink for me. Particularly when he gets repetitive, maybe to stretch the length of the video. This isn't the sort of high quality content that I've come to expect from him. I'm sure many of the viewers thrive on that sort of thing, but I think those who thrive on emotional content are there more for entertainment than knowledge.

Granted, these perspectives might serve some purpose for someone new to Tesla, who are learning the various players in the media. Though, I think his thick sarcasm ladled on using a bucket can be misunderstood by someone who is not "in the know" already. In this way his style has changed over the years, and I miss the SMR from way back when. Maybe he is trying to be "smart funny" and his autism results in his missing the mark. If he must make anti-FUD videos, I wish he'd just present the rebuttal with the facts in a humorous way, and tone down the theatrics.

It seems more and more that Steven is churning out content without the due diligence for quality that I know he is capable of. He does offer up good stuff often enough for me to take a gander every day to see what he's put out. Yesterday's episode "A Very Tangled Web" that explored collaboration possibilities between legacy OEMs and various EV companies was interesting.

Hopefully he can step back a few paces and take a view from a distance in order to see how the ratio between these two styles might better serve his audience by limiting the FUD bashing in order to increase the First Principles analysis content that he does so well.

I suspect that he has simply moved a lot of new content from "the good stuff" bucket to his Patreon page and his YT channel has suffered because of that. But, he's probably done the numbers and knows what brings the most income and puts more shares in his portfolio.

 

[dl003]

SMR has a good analytical mind. His perspective can be very first principles oriented. Only, he's set himself a goal of putting out a video every day on YT (plus making content for his subscription channels).

This goal complicates things and often he doesn't have anything worthwhile to offer, but puts something out anyway. So, he tears into folks spreading FUD when he has spare time on his hands. These videos are boring to me. Not much in the way of useful information to be gleaned from them.

Those episodes I usually pass on. Watching someone nitpick a news channel's interview with GJ or others of that ilk is a time sink for me. Particularly when he gets repetitive, maybe to stretch the length of the video. This isn't the sort of high quality content that I've come to expect from him. I'm sure many of the viewers thrive on that sort of thing, but I think those who thrive on emotional content are there more for entertainment than knowledge.

Granted, these perspectives might serve some purpose for someone new to Tesla, who are learning the various players in the media. Though, I think his thick sarcasm ladled on using a bucket can be misunderstood by someone who is not "in the know" already. In this way his style has changed over the years, and I miss the SMR from way back when. Maybe he is trying to be "smart funny" and his autism results in his missing the mark. If he must make anti-FUD videos, I wish he'd just present the rebuttal with the facts in a humorous way, and tone down the theatrics.

It seems more and more that Steven is churning out content without the due diligence for quality that I know he is capable of. He does offer up good stuff often enough for me to take a gander every day to see what he's put out. Yesterday's episode "A Very Tangled Web" that explored collaboration possibilities between legacy OEMs and various EV companies was interesting.

Hopefully he can step back a few paces and take a view from a distance in order to see how the ratio between these two styles might better serve his audience by limiting the FUD bashing in order to increase the First Principles analysis content that he does so well.

I suspect that he has simply moved a lot of new content from "the good stuff" bucket to his Patreon page and his YT channel has suffered because of that. But, he's probably done the numbers and knows what brings the most income and puts more shares in his portfolio.

He's made "Number 1 Tesla Cheerleader" his identity and that, despite his best effort to mask it, has put him in a corner through 3 full years and counting of pathetic stock performance. People have different ways to deal with this slump. Some like that economist guy revealed himself to have always been full of *sugar* all along. Some like SMR get defensive and strike out everyday, much like what an animal does when cornered. Some like Ross Gerber decide to join the madness and just say provocative *sugar* for attention.

I'm as big a bull as anyone else and whenever there's FUD you can count on me ripping it to shreds, but even I feel ashamed when I get associated with the above personalities. Yes, we on the other thread might be picking up pennies in front of the steamroller. We might be gamblers. Well heck, we might even be "short term thinkers." But we're surprisingly much more level-headed than the people who think they're the only thing that stands between Tesla and bankruptcy.

 

[SOULPEDL]

SMR has a good analytical mind. His perspective can be very first principles oriented. Only, he's set himself a goal of putting out a video every day on YT (plus making content for his subscription channels).

This goal complicates things and often he doesn't have anything worthwhile to offer, but puts something out anyway. So, he tears into folks spreading FUD when he has spare time on his hands. These videos are boring to me. Not much in the way of useful information to be gleaned from them.

Those episodes I usually pass on. Watching someone nitpick a news channel's interview with GJ or others of that ilk is a time sink for me. Particularly when he gets repetitive, maybe to stretch the length of the video. This isn't the sort of high quality content that I've come to expect from him. I'm sure many of the viewers thrive on that sort of thing, but I think those who thrive on emotional content are there more for entertainment than knowledge.

Granted, these perspectives might serve some purpose for someone new to Tesla, who are learning the various players in the media. Though, I think his thick sarcasm ladled on using a bucket can be misunderstood by someone who is not "in the know" already. In this way his style has changed over the years, and I miss the SMR from way back when. Maybe he is trying to be "smart funny" and his autism results in his missing the mark. If he must make anti-FUD videos, I wish he'd just present the rebuttal with the facts in a humorous way, and tone down the theatrics.

It seems more and more that Steven is churning out content without the due diligence for quality that I know he is capable of. He does offer up good stuff often enough for me to take a gander every day to see what he's put out. Yesterday's episode "A Very Tangled Web" that explored collaboration possibilities between legacy OEMs and various EV companies was interesting.

Hopefully he can step back a few paces and take a view from a distance in order to see how the ratio between these two styles might better serve his audience by limiting the FUD bashing in order to increase the First Principles analysis content that he does so well.

I suspect that he has simply moved a lot of new content from "the good stuff" bucket to his Patreon page and his YT channel has suffered because of that. But, he's probably done the numbers and knows what brings the most income and puts more shares in his portfolio.

I hear ya, and sometimes he's beating a dead horse, but I know I couldn't do that everyday.

To his credit, about 3 yrs ago I showed some friends of mine just one spicy SMR clip. He sold it and my friends started buying TSLA as a result.
They're still my friends, but always wondering what's going on with Elon or the stock. It can be challenge to explain it. So I like SMRs jump right into ridiculous news of the day. There's no lack of that! (Edit to make the point that he may sound like a broken record to us vets, not necessarily to a newcomer. He's like a gateway drug.)

 

[Krugerrand]

That's called moving the goal post. Acknowledge that:

1. There is a world outside of our obsession with Tesla
2. Not all people who say the stock will go down wish the company to fail
3. Being bullish on TSLA does not make you right in everything you say and everyone else wrong who disagrees with you

I have a very long term outlook on the Earth, about 5 billion years long to be exact. However, there is a group of people whose job is to predict whether it will rain in my city tomorrow. They're called meteorologists. They can be bad or good at their job. Their prediction may be well-founded or simply lucky guesses; that's not the point. The point there's an easy and definitive way to tell if they're right or wrong. If they say tomorrow it's going to rain and I call them idiots and it actually rains, then I will have been wrong. That has nothing to do with my conviction on life. You're investing in a company whose CEO is a feverish practitioner of the First Principle: “The only rules are the ones dictated by the laws of physics. Everything else is a recommendation.” 100 is 66.66666...6% less than 300 and SMR was wrong. Stop moving the goal post. That's Gordon Johnson's job.

It easy to say "but I wasn't concerned with..." after you've been proven wrong. If he was not concerned, then why insult them in the first place?

I understand you’re not getting as much love as you think you deserve in the options thread, but leave it there, tyvm.

He’s not your cup of tea. Understood and acknowledged.

 

[Drax7]

Nvidia gets hit and tesla breaks in sympathy.
The nonsense we have to go through.

 

[Krugerrand]

Nvidia gets hit and tesla breaks in sympathy.
The nonsense we have to go through.

Everything is red on my ticker list. Looks like widespread nonsense.