Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Can't restrain myself any longer.

Every time TSLA has had a significant move to the upside, there were multiple articles with numbers and graphs explaining why it should in fact go down. GOJO is an extreme example, but he is just one.

To say Wall Street expects...or the Analyst need to see....or models show....all indicate that somehow someway "we" can predict short term movement.
We can't. One example on November 13th 2020 TSLA closed at $136.17 on Jan 8th 2021 (less than 2 months later) it more than doubled to close at $293.34.

How many Seeking Alpha or Barron's...or business insider articles called that?

Another example. On August 20, 2021, it closed at $226.75 on Nov 5th 2021 it closed at $407.36
I bet I could find plenty of charts showing why TSLA would go down in August or September 2021

This is the investor's forum ...to me, that means investing in and holding a stock for long term gain.
Not day trading or option playing (although I am guilty of trying options)

I have no doubt Tesla will surprise all the "experts" again and the SP will behave .....surprisingly.

 

[Usain]

Optimus unlike FSD/Autonomous driving will have significant competition.
Plenty of companies in the U.S. and China will get into this field. Boston Dynamics is not the competition; it’s the startups backed by Amazon, Google, Huawei and Alibaba. Tesla will not have the data advantage it has in FSD. There are thousands of use cases for Optimus most of which are simpler than driving and less safety critical.
Tesla will be one of many winners but
I seriously doubt anyone will be able to maintain “staggering” margins in this area.

For the bot, Tesla will have a manufacturing and cost advantage.

And like you said, there are so many use cases that there is plenty of room in the market for several big players for quite awhile. I expect Tesla to be one of the big winners in this space. Just like in EVs, Tesla will be making big profits while others are burning huge piles of cash.

However, nobody knows when Optimus will be capable of useful work. That's the thing we are really waiting for.

 

[Linkmeup]

VIbe check response: still HODLing, still believing, and pulled some cash for a few more chairs just below 180 last week. Hoping for some upward action before end of 2025 for personal reasons, but will not have to sell if that time comes and goes.
Methinks our problem is timescale. We post and complain on a minutes-to-days timescale. Tesla achieves global milestones on a months-to-years timescale. There seems to be an order of magnitude gear ratio mismatch here

When in doubt, zoom out. We are all on an investment forum, for one stock, typing away with our keyboards hoping people read our content...all in the thin hopes that someone, out there and maybe at Tesla or someone that can change TSLA, is reading that piece of content in the vast ocean that is Internet traffic.

From 2017 -> now, what's changed while I've been here? The share price and our net worths. There's more pressure to earn / save something that we didn't necessarily have 6 years ago. Meanwhile, the world is burning and that new net worth may or may not be meaningless, unless the company this investment forum is supporting...builds an entire ecosystem to get rid of a global problem and drive towards a sustainable planet and civilization (whether its on this planet or not).

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Tesla because of Elon. Sure a certain smaller group might like Elon more but they're generally more inclined to think "EVs are a bad fix for a problem that doesn't exist and they're worse for the environment than ICE"
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a 3 because there are no stalks. I personally like the new controls but def not for everyone.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Y because there's obviously an update in the works.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy an S because it still somehow has a ton of design and manufacturing flaws.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Tesla because there's no USS.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy TSLA or will sell TSLA because of Elon.
and on
and on

All these small percentages add up to Tesla needlessly shooting itself in the foot during a time where there are finally other EVs that are starting to get interesting. I still hold a ton of TSLA but thinking everything is perfect and Elon is a god isn't going to fix things...or fix brokerage account balances.

A certain small percentage of people won't buy a Tesla because they don't have a vehicle with a form factor they want. (Me) Tesla can _really_ help with this globally with a smaller "Model 2".
A certain small percentage of people won't buy a Tesla because regen isn't configurable. (Me).
A certain small percentage of people won't buy a Tesla because there's no fallback to dumb cruise control. (Me).
A certain small percentage of people won't buy a Tesla because there's no nearby service center (a friend).
A certain small percentage of people won't buy a Tesla because their customer service is shockingly bad,
A significant percentage of people will buy Teslas because they're relatively cheap for the vehicle type.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Elon tweeted not that long ago that training compute was the limiting factor for FSD and they were on their way to resolving that.

Well, he would say that wouldn't he, given the current approach and that they don't have FSD.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Strong day in the markets. I think TSLA held up pretty well in the face of unseemly extracurricular machinations.

 

[gillfoto]

Nope, but I hear they're going to do another remake of Vanishing Point where Kowalski drives a Cybertruck. Totally different ending.

Vanishing Point is in my DVD collection, Barry Newman was no where near Steve McQueen as I never saw him at the 24 Hours of Le Mans.

 

[Drumheller]

Optimus unlike FSD/Autonomous driving will have significant competition.
Plenty of companies in the U.S. and China will get into this field. Boston Dynamics is not the competition; it’s the startups backed by Amazon, Google, Huawei and Alibaba. Tesla will not have the data advantage it has in FSD. There are thousands of use cases for Optimus most of which are simpler than driving and less safety critical.
Tesla will be one of many winners but
I seriously doubt anyone will be able to maintain “staggering” margins in this area.

I think the main success factor will be dependent on speed of training new skills.
If my Optimus has a new skill available for download / purchase each month while my competitor's bot only learns a new skill once per year, I'm going to keep my Optimus and sell the other bot. Tesla is building the training capability at large scale in house.

Other companies are putting fortunes into AI development now but their past history is less convincing than Tesla's. For instance, Amazon's Alexa is 9 years old. Underwhelming growth in that time, in my opinion.

 

[Knightshade]

Bullish for $TSLA if Elon is forced to sell X?

View attachment 1027154

Or...worthless fearmongering from an hilariously unreliable source.

Among other things he gets wrong in his claims, the bill in question:

Does not allow the government to "force" anyone to sell anything-- only to ban distribution of an app in the US if owned by a foreign adversary (see next item).

Does not apply to "any social media platform" but only to apps controlled by foreign adversaries (which currently are North Korea, China, Russia, and Iran)

Does not mention the word election at all in the bill.



You can read the bill here:

https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/Protecting%20Americans%20From%20Foriegn%20Adversary%20Controlled%20Applications_3.5.24.pdf

Further discussion (even though there's nothing to actually discuss) prob. belongs, I dunno, here?

X App Discussion

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[raffiniert]

I need a heavy amount of cash for a property I will buy soon. I will not sell a single share of TSLA for this, but I think of a short-term buy and sell with the whole amount to lower the price of the property, because TSLA is too low currently. Need advice if it will be higher in 2 weeks. Thanks.

 

[Tony73]

I think the main success factor will be dependent on speed of training new skills.
If my Optimus has a new skill available for download / purchase each month while my competitor's bot only learns a new skill once per year, I'm going to keep my Optimus and sell the other bot. Tesla is building the training capability at large scale in house.

Other companies are putting fortunes into AI development now but their past history is less convincing than Tesla's. For instance, Amazon's Alexa is 9 years old. Underwhelming growth in that time, in my opinion.

Alexa is not profit making. No one has figured how to monetize an AI virtual assistant. The path to monetizing an AI robot is obviously much clearer and the motivation to keep it updated will be far stronger. Google, Amazon, Microsoft do not lack training resources. They also have the deep pockets to buy the best of breed AI robotics startups and invest heavily in manufacturing at scale.

I can see Tesla having a manufacturing and cost advantage; They already know how to make stuff at scale. However it is unlikely to be a large or decisive advantage like it has been in autos. Everyone is starting from scratch; no one has decades of ingrained thinking to slow them down like incumbent auto did and assembling robots is far less complex than assembling cars.

 

[Drumheller]

Alexa is not profit making. No one has figured how to monetize an AI virtual assistant. The path to monetizing an AI robot is obviously much clearer and the motivation to keep it updated will be far stronger. Google, Amazon, Microsoft do not lack training resources. They also have the deep pockets to buy the best of breed AI robotics startups and invest heavily in manufacturing at scale.

I can see Tesla having a manufacturing and cost advantage; They already know how to make stuff at scale. However it is unlikely to be a large or decisive advantage like it has been in autos. Everyone is starting from scratch; no one has decades of ingrained thinking to slow them down like incumbent auto did and assembling robots is far less complex than assembling cars.

The entire purpose of buying an Echo is to get Alexa. Amazon uses it to spy on users and sell marketing data. How much more popular might the device be if Amazon had focused on actual AI growth with Alexa?

I believe there are companies intending to compete with Optimus. I don't believe those companies have the focus, drive, and agility of Tesla.

 

[2daMoon]

Optimus unlike FSD/Autonomous driving will have significant competition.
Plenty of companies in the U.S. and China will get into this field. Boston Dynamics is not the competition; it’s the startups backed by Amazon, Google, Huawei and Alibaba. Tesla will not have the data advantage it has in FSD. There are thousands of use cases for Optimus most of which are simpler than driving and less safety critical.
Tesla will be one of many winners but
I seriously doubt anyone will be able to maintain “staggering” margins in this area.

You do understand the TAM for humanoid robots is vast, right?
Mind-bogglingly huge.
Carl Sagan-ish Billions and Billions sized.

Competition?

Everyone in the game with a viable product will sell (lease) all they can produce for decades to come.

Brian White (FutureAZA) interviewed Cern Basher on this recently in a multi-part series Part 1, Part 2, Part 3. Worth a looksie.

 

[Tony73]

You do understand the TAM for humanoid robots is vast, right?
Mind-bogglingly huge.
Carl Sagan-ish Billions and Billions sized.

Competition?

Everyone in the game with a viable product will sell (lease) all they can produce for decades to come.

Brian White (FutureAZA) interviewed Cern Basher on this recently in a multi-part series on the Tube. Worth a looksie.

Never questioned the TAM. Was skeptical of “staggering” margins.

 

[2Pearls]

Here is a sample bear and bull case for 2025, which Ark Invest published in 2021:

View attachment 1027042

View attachment 1027043

Via - https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2

Please tell me how either the bull or bear cases are based in reality.

Here was their 2024 price target and scenarios, published in 2020:
View attachment 1027046

Via - https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target

In December 2021, she stated she expected 40% CAGR from her funds. Let's take a look:

View attachment 1027044

Looks very close!

View attachment 1027048
View attachment 1027049


Anyone taking this woman seriously does so at their own peril.

I like Cathy and her optimism, however, A lot has changed since then and I think she moved her projections to 2027-2030. Even Tesla during the last earnings call said growth this year would be less than in 2023...yet, there are some bulls on this forum who think TSLA could be sandbagging. I think we are moving sideways Or slightly down till Q3/Q4 2025 as we ARE in the middle of 2 growth segments...and, there is even discussions that EPS will be down this year. FSD is still 4-6 years away and Optimus is at least 2-3 years away. Ramping of CyberTruck is 2 years Away and the Model 2/Gen 3 car will still be ramping in 2026/2027 There is Energy, which should help the bottom line. Where else is growth coming from. If we get to $350 mid 2026, I will be happy.

 

[2daMoon]

Never questioned the TAM. Was skeptical of “staggering” margins.

What do you imagine the margins would be on BAAS leasing? (Bot As A Service)

See the videos linked above for some numbers Cern bats around to use as a starting point in evaluating the potential.

 

[bpjod]

I need a heavy amount of cash for a property I will buy soon. I will not sell a single share of TSLA for this, but I think of a short-term buy and sell with the whole amount to lower the price of the property, because TSLA is too low currently. Need advice if it will be higher in 2 weeks. Thanks.

I just bought a new home, deposit has been paid, balance of payment is due in a few months when we take possession. Don't want to take out a mortgage as I've got the cash on hand from recently selling a business. In the meantime I've set the cash aside in a high interest savings account as it's a substaintial amount of money and I do not want to risk losing any portion of it and having to cash in other investments (including maybe TSLA) and having to pay taxes on that (at a very high marginal tax rate) or else have to take out a mortgage with today's interest rates (I've really enjoyed being mortgage free these past 9 years).

TSLA is too volatile IMO to hold money in that you need in the short term. I do agree that it seems artificially supressed at this time, there is a chance it could spring back in a couple weeks (for your purposes) or a few months (for my purposes) but it might take years. I keep in mind the adage that the markets can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent and would never consider doing such a risky thing.

That's just me knowing my personal situation and risk profile though, you do you.

 

[Musskiah]

You do understand the TAM for humanoid robots is vast, right?
Mind-bogglingly huge.
Carl Sagan-ish Billions and Billions sized.

Competition?

Everyone in the game with a viable product will sell (lease) all they can produce for decades to come.

Brian White (FutureAZA) interviewed Cern Basher on this recently in a multi-part series Part 1, Part 2, Part 3. Worth a looksie.

Thanks for the links @2daMoon I am a fan of both Cern and Brian. Having a looksie as I typesie

 

[Ellec]

I like Cathy and her optimism, however, A lot has changed since then and I think she moved her projections to 2027-2030. Even Tesla during the last earnings call said growth this year would be less than in 2023...yet, there are some bulls on this forum who think TSLA could be sandbagging. I think we are moving sideways Or slightly down till Q3/Q4 2025 as we ARE in the middle of 2 growth segments...and, there is even discussions that EPS will be down this year. FSD is still 4-6 years away and Optimus is at least 2-3 years away. Ramping of CyberTruck is 2 years Away and the Model 2/Gen 3 car will still be ramping in 2026/2027 There is Energy, which should help the bottom line. Where else is growth coming from. If we get to $350 mid 2026, I will be happy.

I agree, it's good they explained this on the call. It also gives them time to work on the issues without worrying about pleasing the market short term and come out the other end stronger and more efficient. They are not in the days of Model 3 ramp or bust they have a lot of cash a lot of inertia and a great brand, with exciting product pipeline. The next two years is a great time to accumulate shares at a decent price if that's something available to you.

I am looking forward to the Model 2/Next Generation reveal and the design decisions they made, I hope they do another investor day as I love hearing from inside the company, it cuts through all the BS generated every day.

 

[carterm2]

The world's Li Ion batteries capacity world wide has grown 60% while the price is close to $60/kWh and CATL claims $30/kWh by the end of this year. Both Tesla Auto and Energy will benefit as one of the highest volume purchasers. This seems to be information the short sellers are simply ignoring. I wonder how this plays out given the lack of demand now expected from Ford and GM?