Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

@aronth5 I don’t want to simply argue with you, so here is an exercise for those ‘a lot’ of people that they may find enlightening.

Have them make a list of every ICEV they’ve owned. Beside each one have them list all the service appointments for each and indicate which had to be done at the brand dealership and which they went to a generic shop or could be done at a generic shop (ie. oil changes, windshield replacements).

Now I presume you own a Tesla or some other reliable EV and thusly have experience. Go through their list and put an X through everything not applicable to a Tesla.

Put a circle around everything that applies to a Tesla - ie., tires, new windshield.

Put a star beside anything circled that absolutely requires a Tesla SC.

 

[phantasms]

Yet when some nobody on Twitter says some pie in the sky bullish bull about Tesla it’ll be discussed here for pages as if it’s already solved, iterated on, and vastly profitable.

Per SMR video, Ford is about to jump on FSD bandwagon. If true, this will be a big thing.

Well that didn’t take long.

 

[Quesder]

The big plus with the 4680 is it's easier to mass manufacture at high volumes than other batteries, with a much smaller factory footprint.

not challenging, but I need more facts and explanations. Currently 4680 development is far behind schedule, and I've read articles saying it is not as good as 21700 in package level energy density, let alone "easier" mass production. Some updates for me are super welcome.

 

[Musskiah]

View attachment 1030624

Well, this was the slide they shared in 2020 at Battery Day. They also said it would help them produce the $25k robotaxi in three years but, alas, here we are.

Here we are, short of aspirational goals, yet again! I suppose the only valid conclusion is that 4680s will never be more energy dense and robotaxis will never come to fruition. We were also supposed to have humans on Mars by now! AND Roadster 2.0! AND Semi! AND what happened to solar roof....and on...and on...

 

[Usain]

Per SMR video, Ford is about to jump on FSD bandwagon. If true, this will be a big thing.

If you hadn't said "SMR" I'd be a lot more excited.

 

[Musskiah]

Personally, I've never subscribed to the market manipulation line of thinking, tbh. Mostly because I don't understand it. Maybe TSLA was range-bound between 2015-2019, but that's as far as I go in thinking that way.

Two things:
(1) For those who do not subscribe to market manipulation in general (not just TSLA), it's not really disputed in real life. It's a thing. As you say, maybe you just don't understand. If you wish to, you need look no further than exhibit A:

If you need further evidence, just search TMC site for "Maddoff exemption."
(2) When it comes to TSLA 2015-2019, you ought to look into which stock topped the short interest chart during those years, eventually becoming the most shorted stock of ALL TIME by total short $$ - and it's not even close. In case you missed the history of this...

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

I @Zaddy Daddy Using a graph of past prices does not convey a thing about future prices. MY prices will be on the rise in both Europe and US in weeks. This is a sign we are at a local bottom and near/at stabilization. I didn't mean to imply price cuts were only because of interest rates, so...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Musskiah]

Has any CEO in the history of the world endured as much endless scruitny as Elon? I ask this curiously because I am truly unaware.

@ShareLofty do you not approve of the question or...I'm confused?

 

[Quesder]

I made a call out many months ago thinking the stock was going to rebound to $300 for one reason: once supercharging rolls out for all the other EV's, the FUD would flip a switch and turn positive towards all things Tesla and Elon Musk.

Obviously, that's wrong now in the month of March. Anyone think there's a delayed reaction to this roll out into May/June for TSLA to rebound or is this new initiative a non-factor in the stock?

SP went from 190 to 210 when GM or FORD announced the adoption of NACS back in Feb 2023.
Now Wall Street and shorts are questioning the whole EV transition, saying it won't happen and Hybrid will be the way (which I am afraid to be true)

On top of that, other non-Chinese brands' EV sales are abysmal and miserable, some are even trying to slowdown the manufacturing. I don't see that will help TSLA SP.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I find it interesting that there are long time bulls here and everywhere who are in such a state of despair that they discount completed FSD as a nonstarter for the SP until revenues appear in a major way.

Hypothetical scenario: Tesla announces two months from now that FSD is complete and true self driving is achieved and only a matter of some last few extreme tests and also regulatory issues. Everyone using FSD and testing it outside of a few insane TSLAQs agree and there is near universal disbelief that a fleet of cars numbering in the millions can suddenly drive autonomously. The media and OEMs sputter and squirm but physical realities prevail and FSD is hailed by almost all objective observers as a monumental achievement for human civilization.

And yet there seems to be a prevailing opinion even among TSLA bulls that this would mean nothing for the stock price until it is monetized. And that even worse, it would transform into a money pit with high cost centers. And that we must seethe in quiet desperation until GigaMex and Tesla energy are ramped fully.

I find this outcome highly improbable. A couple of orders in magnitude more improbable than the achievement of autonomous driving. Which, btw, is going to happen. One way or another.

Great point! So often I hear from other companies of a breakthrough, stock pops, come to find out it was done in a lab and won't reach the shelves for another 3 yrs. New EVs included (Ultium, lol). But Tesla could invent anti-gravity and the stock would drop on pure fear that things would float away.

We had a bit of a bump from V12.3 release, but people still can't pivot their thinking, simply because they only hear the negatives. Plus they aren't close enough to the tech to understand what's different from Waymo or Cruise. And same goes with Optimus. (Figure 01 may be the exception TBD, but Boston Dynamics spoiled the fun with their pure eye-candy).

If there are any critical thinkers remaining, a test drive in an FSD Tesla should cause some serious shock and awe. And when Tesla lets everyone try it for 30 days free (hope so) the dissonance will kick in, reality smacked right in their faces. KA-POW!

Now consider there are folks here who did not believe it until they tried it themselves. So skeptics abound in the wild (as expected), unless they get invited for a ride in one. Most of mine in the past have come with excuses, so I can't wait for some good demos.

We can certainly help spread the reality - give more rides, explain how this is different. Shoot them updates with "now it reverses, now it parks, now I don't have the nag..." Sell it. Tell them they had better buy the stock at this low price before everyone finds out our little secret. It's too late when they turn it on, and that day is coming soon.

Ya, I'm gonna give some rides today. Maybe I'll sell one or two... on TSLA.

 

[ShareLofty]

@ShareLofty do you not approve of the question or...I'm confused?

I believe he brings alot of the criticism on himself. I not only wish he had never bought the bird, I wish he would have deleted his account three years ago. Not really the right place to discuss this though.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I made a call out many months ago thinking the stock was going to rebound to $300 for one reason: once supercharging rolls out for all the other EV's, the FUD would flip a switch and turn positive towards all things Tesla and Elon Musk.

Obviously, that's wrong now in the month of March. Anyone think there's a delayed reaction to this roll out into May/June for TSLA to rebound or is this new initiative a non-factor in the stock?

Limited-factor IMO because there are too few of the newbies plugging in. I get the feeling by next quarter there will be more Cybertrucks on the road than all of US BEV competition combined.

Some newbies to the SC world might share the joy online, but many might still be reluctant to use a Tesla Super Charger as it was the reason they did not get a Tesla in the first place. So I wouldn't expect them to say, "Hey, I can do long trips now thanks to Tesla!" out of embarrassment and shame. Even though relieved and grateful on the inside.

 

[larmor]

Four major reasons the stock has been drifting downward,IMO.

1. Hangover from 2021 bubble when TSLA went way too high too fast. Once at that level the only direction to go is down. We are in downward price discovery mode.

2. Narrative reversal on EVs - “nobody wants them.”

3. FSD still doesn’t work

4. Overall weak economy around the world. See China and EU, and to a lesser extent the US.

These can all change, but they are not going to change overnight. Holders should stop checking the price everyday and those looking to increase their position should wait for real signs of a reversal.

Jmho

Also other reasons for continued downward price pressure:
1. New factory construction
2. Refreshed M3, presumably easier to assemble
3. New product line CT
4. Rapid progress on FSD with use of AI to decrease injury and accidents instead of just making movies of dolphins riding bicycles.
5. Associated companies also not doing well with Starship making orbit, neuralink connection to a quadriplegic to a computer
6. Lets not forget the one week holiday for Chinese New Years which has apparently derailed tesla singlehandedly that in combo with the lunar calendar (which moves by 10 days every year)

 

[Musskiah]

I believe he brings alot of the criticism on himself. I not only wish he had never bought the bird, I wish he would have deleted his account three years ago. Not really the right place to discuss this though.

Truth!

 

[philw1776]

I believe he brings alot of the criticism on himself. I not only wish he had never bought the bird, I wish he would have deleted his account three years ago. Not really the right place to discuss this though.

Now that once again others have spoken, there are some of us here who feel the opposite about the purchase.
Short term stock price is far less important than many other issues. /end

 

[Drax7]

Great point! So often I hear from other companies of a breakthrough, stock pops, come to find out it was done in a lab and won't reach the shelves for another 3 yrs. New EVs included (Ultium, lol). But Tesla could invent anti-gravity and the stock would drop on pure fear that things would float away.

We had a bit of a bump from V12.3 release, but people still can't pivot their thinking, simply because they only hear the negatives. Plus they aren't close enough to the tech to understand what's different from Waymo or Cruise. And same goes with Optimus. (Figure 01 may be the exception TBD, but Boston Dynamics spoiled the fun with their pure eye-candy).

If there are any critical thinkers remaining, a test drive in an FSD Tesla should cause some serious shock and awe. And when Tesla lets everyone try it for 30 days free (hope so) the dissonance will kick in, reality smacked right in their faces. KA-POW!

Now consider there are folks here who did not believe it until they tried it themselves. So skeptics abound in the wild (as expected), unless they get invited for a ride in one. Most of mine in the past have come with excuses, so I can't wait for some good demos.

We can certainly help spread the reality - give more rides, explain how this is different. Shoot them updates with "now it reverses, now it parks, now I don't have the nag..." Sell it. Tell them they had better buy the stock at this low price before everyone finds out our little secret. It's too late when they turn it on, and that day is coming soon.

Ya, I'm gonna give some rides today. Maybe I'll sell one or two... on TSLA.

Wall Street Will believe when FSD starts generating revenues. After so many failed attempts
Tesla has to show them the money.

 

[CHGolferJim]

After spending the last week on the first half of a long road trip across the South in our new Cybertruck, perhaps the only thing more difficult than getting to see a new CT in the wild is trying to drive one on the interstate while every driver around you is taking pics and videos of a new CT in the wild. We drove 18 hours the first day, and at least half of that was in the lens of someone’s iPhone - one after another , after another…. Lane changes/passing was almost always complicated by vehicles shadowing us for pics and videos of the truck rolling through the south at a high rate of speed. And Supercharger stops - ha! Dozens of pics taken and questions from multiple people at each one - non-stop fascination with the truck. It was like a Twilight Zone episode. Anyone thinking there isn’t sufficient interest and demand for this truck is off their nut! It’s beyond comprehension how many people of every demographic want one. Oh yeah - almost forgot to mention that it is a complete dream to drive.

Marvelous post, thank you! How was the charging experience? Did you stick with 250s?

 

[Tiger]

My '23 Fremont Model Y was produced during a frantic last days rush of '22 (I took delivery at noon Dec 31). It was perfect.

An exception proves the rule.

 

[Mengy]

Wall Street Will believe when FSD starts generating revenues. After so many failed attempts
Tesla has to show them the money.

I believe this as well. FSD could get to Level 5 tomorrow and I don't think the stock would budge one bit, not until sales of FSD markedly went up, or until physical robotaxis were on the streets earning revenues.

TSLA has immense downward pressure on it, and I think the company is going to have to prove itself in the fundamentals in order to reverse that.

In short, I think we have a long time to go until FSD is helping out TSLA.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Per SMR video, Ford is about to jump on FSD bandwagon. If true, this will be a big thing.

It's not nothing, and it's not his idea either. There's something to this rumor, and I draw the same conclusion as SMR.

"The planned big electric cruisers were expected to go on sale in early 2025, however, sources said that resources have been shifted at Ford to create three models:

1. A small SUV,​

2. A pickup and​

3. A "ride-hailing vehicle" sitting on an all new small vehicle platform."​

​

Not anytime soon, but in the works it would seem by the "Skunk-works Team" at Ford. Others will likely have to either follow or vanish. There's simply no time to catch up now, (or even 2 yrs ago).

https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/ford-is-making-a-radical-shift-towards-cheaper-evs-for-americans-

It's been said for years, and many times on this forum: Due to the need for so much driving data, there's no way others can compete with FSD anymore than someone could compete with Google. So in my head, FSD has been game over for quite sometime on this key fact that data is king and growth is exponential.

 

[Singuy]

SP went from 190 to 210 when GM or FORD announced the adoption of NACS back in Feb 2023.
Now Wall Street and shorts are questioning the whole EV transition, saying it won't happen and Hybrid will be the way (which I am afraid to be true)

On top of that, other non-Chinese brands' EV sales are abysmal and miserable, some are even trying to slowdown the manufacturing. I don't see that will help TSLA SP.

Lol questioning the whole EV transition is like questioning getting rid of coal. The entire world does not revolve around the US. China and EU has mandates. Transition in China is near 50% of all new car sales.

Even if theres a doubt for the US, the question Wallstreet should be having is, can legacy auto survive building two different powertrain when China and EU only want EVs and perhaps 20-30% of the people in the US only want evs?

Transition is 100% happening, but fear mongers and perhaps dumb bean counters ay legacy auto are looking at it with a blind eye.