Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

Buying before this qtr numbers are released is risky.

Since this is the Investors' Roundtable I don't think it's very risky to buy at these prices.

Over there ---> at the Traders' Roundtable they might feel differently.

 

[Mengy]

Buying before this qtr numbers are released is risky.
After that risk is out of the way, more likely FSD buying
Will emerge.

I would agree TSLA will likely go a bit lower after the Q1 ER, but if someone wanted to buy shares to hold long term, like several years out, then I'd say buying now or right after the ER won't make a huge difference, not in the long term.

 

[Dutchie]

I believe this as well. FSD could get to Level 5 tomorrow and I don't think the stock would budge one bit, not until sales of FSD markedly went up, or until physical robotaxis were on the streets earning revenues.

TSLA has immense downward pressure on it, and I think the company is going to have to prove itself in the fundamentals in order to reverse that.

In short, I think we have a long time to go until FSD is helping out TSLA.

Or when indeed another OEM starts to take the license

 

[Thekiwi]

Yes, fewer unneeded and perhaps OT shifts. Production line remains unchanged. So this is a COGs reduction masked as a bad thing.

Moving to a 5 day work week from 6 1/2 day week makes the overall cost per vehicle from Shanghai HIGHER, not lower. The factory will be sitting idle for 2 days instead of producing cars, which means the fixed factory costs are considerably higher per unit than they would be if producing cars for 6.5 days.

 

[Thekiwi]

Seems like only yesterday when people were explaining Teslas post end of quarter price increase as a sign of increased demand, rather than the obvious end of quarter tactic to goose Q1 sales that it is.

 

[Singuy]

Moving to a 5 day work week from 6 1/2 day week makes the overall cost per vehicle from Shanghai HIGHER, not lower. The factory will be sitting idle for 2 days instead of producing cars, which means the fixed factory costs are considerably higher per unit than they would be if producing cars for 6.5 days.

No individual employees are moving to a 5 day work week...as they used to work 6.5 days a week. I know, mind blowing that Chinese workers work 70hr weeks but that's what they do.

The article said production line uptime hours are NOT affected so nothing is sitting idle.

 

[Thekiwi]

No individual employees are moving to a 5 day work week...as they used to work 6.5 days a week. I know, mind blowing that Chinese workers work 70hr weeks but that's what they do.

The article said production line uptime hours are NOT affected so nothing is sitting idle.

Regardless if it’s actual idle days or if it is less workers working on each shift, the financial impact is the same.

Workers are working 23% less hours. Unless Tesla has somehow made an amazingly huge overnight efficiency gain, then cars produced will also drop a considerable amount (~23%) from somewhere around 19k-20k per week to 15k-16k per week.

 

[larmor]

Workers are working 23% less hours. Unless Tesla has somehow made an amazingly huge overnight efficiency gain, then cars produced will also drop a considerable amount (~23%) from somewhere around 19k-20k per week to 15k-16k per week.

Optimus? (Optimi)

 

[Singuy]

Workers are working 23% less hours. Unless Tesla has somehow made an amazingly huge overnight efficiency gain, then cars produced will also drop a considerable amount (~23%) from somewhere around 19k-20k per week to 15k-16k per week.

They could be short staffed due to the holidays and + just short staffed internally due to expansion/ramp. You automatically assumed it's 23% less hours when it could just be the same hours with 23% more staff.

 

[AndrewZ]

Analysts have been voicing concerns about China overbuilding EV production capacity for some time now, so there's an easy obvious implication here.

Shanghai as of Q4 had >950,000 production capacity. Of course it's hard to extrapolate based on just Jan + Feb data, with New Year thrown in there and such, but wholesale numbers of 131,812 for those two months trend out to less than 800,000 for the year.

Clarity will arrive soon enough I'm sure

 

[Stretch2727]

Buying before this qtr numbers are released is risky.
After that risk is out of the way, more likely FSD buying
Will emerge.

If you believe FSD will have "step change" impact on the stock , not holding the stock is risky.

I don't think anyone can predict when the stock will be affected from FSD. Not even Elon.

Any variations in the stock price now due to P & D, earnings, etc will look small compared to the future when the market realizes FSD is real and will allow autonomy.

 

[MC3OZ]

If you hadn't said "SMR" I'd be a lot more excited.

I think other car companies will eventually license FSD, but it will take demonstrated L5 with regulatory approval before they do,

A late rush to license FSD should obtain the highest price.

For the sensor suite, we will find out if that is adequate for L5, if there are issues, Tesla will find a solution.

 

[MC3OZ]

Analysts have been voicing concerns about China overbuilding EV production capacity for some time now, so there's an easy obvious implication here.

Shanghai as of Q4 had >950,000 production capacity. Of course it's hard to extrapolate based on just Jan + Feb data, with New Year thrown in there and such, but wholesale numbers of 131,812 for those two months trend out to less than 800,000 for the year.

Clarity will arrive soon enough I'm sure

China has been designated an "export hub" for sometime...

What is most important for sales outside of China is the shipping capacity to move the cars to market with sufficient demand in a timely fashion.

 

[LuckyManX]

Moving to a 5 day work week from 6 1/2 day week makes the overall cost per vehicle from Shanghai HIGHER, not lower. The factory will be sitting idle for 2 days instead of producing cars, which means the fixed factory costs are considerably higher per unit than they would be if producing cars for 6.5 days.

No idle time if they schedule staggered shifts.

 

[Musskiah]

Wow... I bought some after @Artful Dodger (missing?) and someone else here said how the NVDA Fourth Extension was possible to $1,091 as I recall vaguely, It sounded really cool, like a move prequel to the Fifth Element, so I went for it.

NVDA Fourth Fibonacci Extension...though I told ya like...

I hope @Artful Dodger is okay

 

[cab]

While I agree with the general sentiment here on this sub that the short term looks a bit bleak for TSLA stock, I continue to "encourage" myself by checking out the drone videos over GigaTexas. As I've said before, the shear volume and variety of ongoing construction there is staggering. Most companies in a somewhat challenging environment with a declining stock price would immediately put a hold on spending. Indeed, the rest of the auto industry is doing just that when it comes to EVs. Instead, what I see is Tesla doing everything possible to "accelerate the transition to sustainable energy"...the daily spend must be enormous and ultimately, coming out of this they will likely be positioned to crank out materially more cars and the gap between them and their competition will likely take a stepwise leap. At that point, other U.S. automakers will likely start trying to "partner" with Tesla (who may, or may not be interested...not because of spite, but because they will have their hands full!). As I posted previously....the work at GigaTexas continues to look like URGENCY to me.

The next "signal" I am looking for will be when they really start working on GigaMexico. That will mean they are far enough along on Texas to trust they won't have to throttle and slow down Mexico construction after it gets underway. I am hopeful that is well before the first "next gen" car rolls off the assembly line in Texas. It may also come down to capital deployment conservation relative to the their confidence in the next gen ramp rate, etc. We'll see.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

While I agree with the general sentiment here on this sub that the short term looks a bit bleak for TSLA stock, I continue to "encourage" myself by checking out the drone videos over GigaTexas. As I've said before, the shear volume and variety of ongoing construction there is staggering. Most companies in a somewhat challenging environment with a declining stock price would immediately put a hold on spending. Indeed, the rest of the auto industry is doing just that when it comes to EVs. Instead, what I see is Tesla doing everything possible to "accelerate the transition to sustainable energy"...the daily spend must be enormous and ultimately, coming out of this they will likely be positioned to crank out materially more cars and the gap between them and their competition will likely take a stepwise leap. At that point, other U.S. automakers will likely start trying to "partner" with Tesla (who may, or may not be interested...not because of spite, but because they will have their hands full!). As I posted previously....the work at GigaTexas continues to look like URGENCY to me.

The next "signal" I am looking for will be when they really start working on GigaMexico. That will mean they are far enough along on Texas to trust they won't have to throttle and slow down Mexico construction after it gets underway. I am hopeful that is well before the first "next gen" car rolls off the assembly line in Texas. It may also come down to capital deployment conservation relative to the their confidence in the next gen ramp rate, etc. We'll see.

A Mexican factory opens up a whole new market as well. The model 2 would probably do well in many Latin American markets. But they will have to get serious about building out the supercharger network in at least Mexico to start with. Right now it’s very patchy…at best.

 

[EVMeister]

What happened to the Europe Model Y price increase that was due today (March 22nd 2024)?

 

[Stormy24]

What happened to the Europe Model Y price increase that was due today (22/03/2024)?

Postponed due to higher sales.

 

[Fred42]

The next "signal" I am looking for will be when they really start working on GigaMexico.

Well, remember Elon's advice to Rivian: get the first plant working before you start on the second. The unboxed Model 2 is sufficiently new and different that this might apply. Hopefully they are moving forward with supporting infrastructure for the Monterrey factory.