Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

Make of this what you will.

Reuters has a piece discussing multiple different consumer surveys showing dropping consumer consideration for purchasing a Tesla vehicle: https://www.reuters.com/business/au...nub-company-musks-reputation-dips-2024-04-01/

One particular tracker shops a drop of 70% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down to 31% consideration in Feb 2024.

View attachment 1034392

The last time I checked 70-31=39 not 70.

So the corrected statement if you aren't trying to mislead could be

One particular tracker shows a drop from 70% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down to 31% consideration in Feb 2024.

or

One particular tracker shows a drop of 39% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down to 31% consideration in Feb 2024.

or even

One particular tracker shows a drop of 39% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down from 70% to 31% consideration in Feb 2024.

pick one, but saying it dropped by 70% is very wrong.

 

[Musskiah]

SMR shares JDouma's Robotaxi model.

Cut to the chase: using Chicago as a model...Yearly Profit $108,900 yielding Present Value $840,900 per robotaxi. Video worth a looksee. The 40x doesn't refer to the stock price. I'll leave it hanging to compel views...

The punchline: Chicago alone garners $1B in profit from $1.25B in revenue. NVDA margins. Sweet dreams folks...

 

[Musskiah]

I think you are batting close to 1000 on negativity today. What led you to post this?

Dare I suggest it may have been due to a feeling of fear, uncertainty, and perhaps a tinge of doubt that influenced getting this out to TMC as some sort of public service?

Does Reuters' well-defined track record with their news about Tesla ever figure into influencing your trust of anything they publish regarding the company?

If you have access to the article (paywalled for me) please let us know how many people were polled to come up with this chart, and, what was the exact wording of the questions being answered by those taking the poll?

I did find this tidbit to chew on from someone running the article, (to help spread the FUD)

"Caliber's "consideration score" for Tesla, provided exclusively to Reuters,..."​

Beyond that, there were no details or links to reference who "Caliber" is, nor any details behind this "score" provided exclusively to Reuters.

Meanwhile, I'll sit quaking in my boots, perched on the edge of my seat, waiting patiently for you to actually make some effort to verify sources from such "entertainment" outlets as Reuters before going off half-cocked and posting another example of useless Pablum for the masses masquerading as actual data.

Do remember the wisdom of Mark Twain and his definition for the three types of lies.

Tell Winnie hello next time you see them.

Can the mods please add "" to the "" reaction list?

 

[Musskiah]

Well as I mentioned I haven’t seen it disengage due to sun glare at all lately. Maybe someone else has.

Never

 

[ThisStockGood]

Security cameras have an auto-iris to deal with the sun by limiting the amount of light that gets in. I'm sure Tesla cameras do the same. No need for a physical shade

Stepping the iris down will expose the picture better, but it won’t enhance the contrast. The better the contrast, the better the FSD will be able to see. A sun shade would make a big difference, especially in the winter season in the northern part of the globe where we have A LOT of very low incoming sunshine.

 

[Quesder]

SMR shares JDouma's Robotaxi model.

Cut to the chase: using Chicago as a model...Yearly Profit $108,900 yielding Present Value $840,900 per robotaxi. Video worth a looksee. The 40x doesn't refer to the stock price. I'll leave it hanging to compel views...

The punchline: Chicago alone garners $1B in profit from $1.25B in revenue. NVDA margins. Sweet dreams folks...

I always have a question:
if Robotaxi becomes so successful, wouldn't that mean a great decline in personal-owned car sales? Wouldn't that hurt Tesla's delivery number?
How could that be good to TESLA in the future? (Though we all know that Q1 delivery is not good and Q2 cannot be expected too much...)

 

[spacerfc]

Make of this what you will.

Reuters has a piece discussing multiple different consumer surveys showing dropping consumer consideration for purchasing a Tesla vehicle: https://www.reuters.com/business/au...nub-company-musks-reputation-dips-2024-04-01/

One particular tracker shops a drop of 70% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down to 31% consideration in Feb 2024.

View attachment 1034392

The plot shows the biggest drop happened in Q1 and Q2 2023, consideration dropped from 70% to ~40%. Yet the US delivery numbers in Q1 and Q2 2023 (from Troy's post 1 and 2) shows no drop at all. Conclusion: This plot is meaningless.

Also the article claims Elon's unfavorable rating is 42% in February and their chart shows his favorable rating is only ~37%, yet the public YouGov rating shows his popularity rating in the US is 47% and dislike rating is 36%. Conclusion: The numbers quoted in this article is questionable at best.

Finally my own tracking of YouGov rating (unfortunately they no longer provide rating history) between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 shows Musk's popularity rating in the US jumped from 41% to 47%, Tesla's brand popularity rating in the US is mostly unchanged (45% to 46%) and dislike rating decreased slightly (25% to 23%)

 

[WattsHappening]

Good numbers for final week of Q1 in China.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775037052947677428

 

[Thekiwi]

The last time I checked 70-31=39 not 70.

So the corrected statement if you aren't trying to mislead could be

One particular tracker shows a drop from 70% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down to 31% consideration in Feb 2024.

or

One particular tracker shows a drop of 39% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down to 31% consideration in Feb 2024.

or even

One particular tracker shows a drop of 39% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down from 70% to 31% consideration in Feb 2024.

pick one, but saying it dropped by 70% is very wrong.

Yes - typo. Was supposed to be dropped FROM 70% to 31%, was too late to edit. I also got the date wrong, was from end of 2021, not end of 2022.

Regardless the result is the same: for that survey only 31% of respondents in Feb 2024 said they would consider a tesla when buying a vehicle.

 

[MC3OZ]

Regardless the result is the same: for that survey only 31% of respondents in Feb 2024 said they would consider a tesla when buying a vehicle.

We don't know what % of those respondents were well informed, or put much thought into their response...

• Were they intending to buy an EV?
• Have they researched EV options?
• Have they test driven a Tesla or some other EV?

We also don't know how the question was framed... how many people were surveyed, and where the survey was done..

 

[Thekiwi]

We don't know what % of those respondents were well informed, or put much thought into their response...

• Were they intending to buy an EV?
• Have they researched EV options?
• Have they test driven a Tesla or some other EV?

We also don't know how the question was framed... how many people were surveyed, and where the survey was done..

All good questions. But then they were measuring the same answers a couple of years earlier and the consideration was 70%. Have people become less informed about Tesla during that timeframe? Should be the opppsite with so many more Teslas on the road, and vehicles at much cheaper prices.

I’m sure there will be plenty of debate once the P&D numbers land, but we have seen a pretty stark change in Tesla sales over the last 12 months - going from strong year over year growth by way of increasing marketshare by rapidly conquering other brands customers, to all of a sudden being seen as a “normal auto company” type of growth profile this quarter, subject to seasonality etc, even with a drop in vehicle prices.

 

[MC3OZ]

All good questions. But then they were measuring the same answers a couple of years earlier and the consideration was 70%. Have people become less informed about Tesla during that timeframe? Should be the opppsite with so many more Teslas on the road, and vehicles at much cheaper prices.

Many of those surveyed may think Tesla cars are expensive, they might not be aware of price reductions, or IRA credits.

Interest rates have increased, and they may assume that they can't afford a Tesla.

There is plenty of FUD flying around, the number of people surveyed, and the survey location may have changed.

Even if the survey location was California both times, attitudes may have changed, or they may have just stumbled on a group of people with a different opinion.

We also don't know if the survey included respondents who already own a Tesla.

Most of the time, those conducting a survey can get the result they want, if they are inclined to want a particular result.

 

[Thekiwi]

Many of those surveyed may think Tesla cars are expensive, they might not be aware of price reductions, or IRA credits.

Interest rates have increased, and they may assume that they can't afford a Tesla.

There is plenty of FUD flying around, the number of people surveyed, and the survey location may have changed.

Even if the survey location was California both times, attitudes may have changed, or they may have just stumbled on a group of people with a different opinion.

We also don't know if the survey included respondents who already own a Tesla.

Most of the time, those conducting a survey can get the result they want, if they are inclined to want a particular result.

All possible.

But also another possibility:

1) There have been plenty of anecdotes from many members here that they have acquaintances that have changed their view on Tesla, and due to one factor in particular, they don’t wish to drive a tesla.
2) We are starting to see surveys covering longer timeframes that say that same “factor” is impacting consumer purchase decisions away from buying a Tesla
3) Sales in some of Tesla’s markets where that “factor” might be more impactful (like California) are soft (decreased in dec quarter), despite lower prices AND the IRA subsidy.

Not concrete of course, but it is possible there is something to sales being impacted from non economic factors.

=====

The thing is its very hard to measure outside of surveys, as there will always be buyers for Teslas if the price is low enough. Even with todays surveys talking about a “31% consideration” number - that is still tens of millions of US adults keen to drive a Tesla! But its many tens of millions less than what there would be at there “70% consideration” number from late 2021. What that means in economic reality is a different D line on the classic supply vs demand chart, and where the $ level sits at the intersection of the D & S lines for Tesla to move its relatively fixed quarterly supply of US produced vehicles.

 

[NicoV]

Tesla didn’t want to give guidance anymore in the conference call at the end of Januari 2024.
Tesla didn’t want to lower the prices anymore after that. On the contrary, prices are going up again.
A couple of weeks later Tesla releases FSD 12.3, and practically everyone who tries it gets convinced that FSD is near, or at least feasible.
Tesla knew exactly what it had in it’s hands in the conference call of Januari. No coincidence.
The days of trying to increase sales by lowering prices are over. FSD will now become the power that drives sales (or at least EPS).

 

[jerry33]

Well as I mentioned I haven’t seen it disengage due to sun glare at all lately. Maybe someone else has.

Not for the last two or three releases. (V11).

 

[2daMoon]

Not concrete of course,

Not even a watered down pudding.

What if the survey was only of Reuters' employees who cover Tesla? We don't know, and they aren't providing references.

We do know that it was an "exclusive" survey done for Reuters, which in and of itself should raise suspicions.

There isn't any information provided from which to study the survey parameters, such as; how the questions were asked; the number of takers; or their demographic in order to justify giving any credence at all to this chart.

A little self-policing for FUD and motivation, simply based upon the fact that Reuters' reputation for Tesla hit pieces with no basis in what most would call reality should have put you off the scent immediately.

Yet, you are now stooping to defend Reuters with anecdotal evidence, rather than accepting how you have become their willing stooge and a purveyor of their FUD.


In case you are unaware, Nicola Tesla's friend, Sam Clements, said there are three types of lies.

Lies

Damned Lies

and Statistics​

 

[Usain]

FSD will now become the power that drives sales (or at least EPS).

I'm not convinced of the "now" part. I would say, "FSD will soon become the power that drives sales."

I'm coming around to the idea that FSD will eventually start to drive sales because, "Who wants a car that you have to drive manually?"

It will be like manual versus automatic transmissions. Almost everyone wants automatic.

 

[willow_hiller]

Not even a watered down pudding.

What if the survey was only of Reuters' employees who cover Tesla? We don't know.

We do know that it was an "exclusive" survey done for Reuters, which in and of itself should raise suspicions.

There isn't any information provided from which to study the survey parameters, such as; how the questions were asked; the number of takers; or their demographic, in order to justify giving any credence at all to this chart.

A little self-policing for FUD and motivation, simply based upon the fact that Reuters reputation for Tesla hit pieces with no basis in what most would call reality should have put you off the scent immediately.

Yet, you are now stooping to defend Reuters with anecdotal evidence, rather than accepting how you have become their willing stooge and a purveyor of their FUD.


In case you are unaware, Nicola Tesla's friend, Sam Clements, said there are three types of lies.

Lies

Damned Lies

and Statistics​

I like YouGov as a source of regularly collected data on approval ratings. They're nationally representative, and updated weekly.

The fact of the matter is that all business people are somewhat unpopular in the current political environment. But among famous business people, Elon is the second most popular; second only to Bill Gates. He ranks above Buffet, Mark Cuban, Richard Branson. And despite their low approval ratings, you don't see it affecting the general public's purchasing or investing behavior for the other famous business people:

The most famous business figures in America | Politics | YouGov Ratings

The most famous business figures in America according to YouGov Ratings. Fame is based on millions of responses from the American public and YouGov's innovative survey methodology.

today.yougov.com

 

[H Mak]

I always have a question:
if Robotaxi becomes so successful, wouldn't that mean a great decline in personal-owned car sales? Wouldn't that hurt Tesla's delivery number?
How could that be good to TESLA in the future? (Though we all know that Q1 delivery is not good and Q2 cannot be expected too much...)

Because at that point it's game, set and match Tesla

 

[Snerruc]

Never

If there’s heavy dew on mine, some of the cameras will be blocked. Also, at night, if a car pulls next to me at a stoplight or passes, it causes some of the cameras to go blind.