Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Would still be curious on daily production. Curious how the ramp is going.

It is hard to say because we don't 100% know what the bottleneck is ...

There are estimates that there were 500 Cybertrucks staged on site last week...

The bottleneck seems to be the new CT end-of-line building on the west side, one out of 3 doors currently seems to be working..

They seem to be processing/shipping at least 100 Cybertrucks per day...

This tallies with a 1,000 per week production run rate but they might not be fully catching up on the bottleneck over the weekend..

There was some talk about needing to ramp up 4680 battery production which we know is 1,000 packs per week,.,

So my best guess is 800-1,000 per week, with an aspiration to get to 3,000 per week by the end of the year.

 

[Joe F]

I've been trying that. It doesn't matter. End trip ends the trip but doesn't stop FSD. Any move to stop FSD (brake pedal, steering wheel, up-shift on the shift lever) results in that, "What did FSD do wrong?" prompt.

Ignore it. Only give feedback when it’s warranted.

I have been traveling roads in PA that are in a heavily populated Amish community. My biggest FSD complaint is its insistence on exact lane centering, as opposed to what every driver recognizes as the correct drivable space. Just as autopilot would dive to the right on highways when encountering an on ramp acceleration lane in order to “center” itself, FSD still does that on non highway roads.

My pet peeve? Horse and buggy’s in slightly wider roads, and FSD wants to center, blissfully unaware of horse manure on the right hand side of the road.

For years I’ve wanted control over where the car drives, you know, how a human drives. Instead I find I’m forced to disengage for everything that collects on the side of a street or road, from depressed storm drain grates, potholes, to just random stuff, including horse manure. And yes, I always give feedback for what happened.

Can’t wait for a release that recognizes drivable space instead of using a micrometer to divide a lane in half. Until then, V12 is light years ahead of every earlier version, so there’s hope.

 

[Musskiah]

Lol. You should learn to not make so many assumptions about strangers. Here I was thinking diversifying when I've made a lot of money in one area was a rational investment decision, but apparently I was "risking bankruptcy"... whatever you gotta tell yourself man. If you were truly confident you wouldn't be so triggered. It's pretty easy to tell who the insecure investors are on here.

Anyways, it's clear this place has become an echo chamber so I'll see myself out. Best of luck to the remaining level-headed ones who provide meaningful discussions! I'm sure you'll find continued success.

I always like to ask those selling out of TSLA as your previous posts state you are (congrats on the big win sincerely): what's your future investment strategy look like? Where will you invest if not TSLA? I ask because it's always wise to consider alternatives, and there are a lot of intelligent people on this forum who I could learn a thing or two from. Thanks in advance...

 

[Quesder]

I always like to ask those selling out of TSLA as your previous posts state you are (congrats on the big win sincerely): what's your future investment strategy look like? Where will you invest if not TSLA? I ask because it's always wise to consider alternatives, and there are a lot of intelligent people on this forum who I could learn a thing or two from. Thanks in advance...

Easy. Sell TSLA now at $160~$170 as it might be a local high.
Wait TSLA to drop after ER, Q2, Q3, and when CyberTruck ramp and RoboTaxi plan are clear, buy TSLA at 日 lower price. If everything goes as planned.

 

[MC3OZ]

Lol. You should learn to not make so many assumptions about strangers. Here I was thinking diversifying when I've made a lot of money in one area was a rational investment decision, but apparently I was "risking bankruptcy"... whatever you gotta tell yourself man. If you were truly confident you wouldn't be so triggered. It's pretty easy to tell who the insecure investors are on here.

Anyways, it's clear this place has become an echo chamber so I'll see myself out. Best of luck to the remaining level-headed ones who provide meaningful discussions! I'm sure you'll find continued success.

I think the point he was making was that prior to 2019 there was "production hell" which was a "bet the company proposition".

The risks were definitely higher for earlier investors.

 

[CitizenKane]

I always like to ask those selling out of TSLA as your previous posts state you are (congrats on the big win sincerely): what's your future investment strategy look like? Where will you invest if not TSLA? I ask because it's always wise to consider alternatives, and there are a lot of intelligent people on this forum who I could learn a thing or two from. Thanks in advance...

Tesla is part of my exposure to US Tech but it has been much too much. I still have a strong belief in Tesla long term, I think the ICE to EV shift is inevitable and I believe Tesla will capture a large part of that. Couple that with potential in other areas I want to keep having a lot of shares in Tesla. But the development of AI is also very exciting and I think Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Palantir are companies that may benefit greatly, so I increase in those to get a more diversified US tech portfolio. I'm also at an age and life situation where maximizing reward is much less important than limiting risks.

 

[jamaatta]

Which AI companies are gonna make profit in near future with their AI products? Others than Tesla? Just asking.

 

[CitizenKane]

Which AI companies are gonna make profit in near future with their AI products? Others than Tesla? Just asking.

I guess that depends on how you define AI companies. Microsoft should be able to make huge profits from its Co-Pilot. Google claims AI are already important for their profits, and Palantir's profits are growing steadily.

 

[jerry33]

Drum brakes are possible. Several EVs doing this. No brakes is not happening. Moving the brakes from the wheels to motor is unnecessary cost. Its not a performance vehicle.

Why would Tesla use a different style of brakes that is inferior? Emergency stopping will be required for a long time because most cars won't be automated and kids and animals will still run out in the street. Besides, a different type of brake will mean more parts and a new supply chain. Makes zero sense.

 

[lascavarian]

Besides, a different type of brake will mean more parts and a new supply chain. Makes zero sense.

If latency can be reduced sufficiently (big if), why not use steering instead. Enhance mobility and avoid the need to emergency brake at all. Steer out of the problem beyond the ability of biological reaction time.

The best emergency stop is….. well, you know.

 

[Fred42]

Ignore it. Only give feedback when it’s warranted.

I have been traveling roads in PA that are in a heavily populated Amish community. My biggest FSD complaint is its insistence on exact lane centering, as opposed to what every driver recognizes as the correct drivable space. Just as autopilot would dive to the right on highways when encountering an on ramp acceleration lane in order to “center” itself, FSD still does that on non highway roads.

My pet peeve? Horse and buggy’s in slightly wider roads, and FSD wants to center, blissfully unaware of horse manure on the right hand side of the road.

For years I’ve wanted control over where the car drives, you know, how a human drives. Instead I find I’m forced to disengage for everything that collects on the side of a street or road, from depressed storm drain grates, potholes, to just random stuff, including horse manure. And yes, I always give feedback for what happened.

Can’t wait for a release that recognizes drivable space instead of using a micrometer to divide a lane in half. Until then, V12 is light years ahead of every earlier version, so there’s hope.

I've wondered for a long time whether autopilot gives horse and buggies enough room when passing. And three lane roads with passing not allowed in either direction (common here): will autopilot use the center lane to pass a buggy? All human drivers do that even though it's not legal.

I've never tried autopilot. A self driving system that drives worse than I do is useless IMO.

 

[cliff harris]

Anyways, it's clear this place has become an echo chamber so I'll see myself out. Best of luck to the remaining level-headed ones who provide meaningful discussions! I'm sure you'll find continued success.

I would urge you to stay, hard though it can be. We definitely need a plurality of viewpoints here. People get emotional here, but thats to be expected. I'm currently several million dollars up overall, but am also several million dollars down from all-time-highs. Its never easy to navigate this level of rollercoaster, so people will often say things they don't mean during the highs and lows. Thats what makes investment so hard!

 

[ls7corvete]

Why would Tesla use a different style of brakes that is inferior? Emergency stopping will be required for a long time because most cars won't be automated and kids and animals will still run out in the street. Besides, a different type of brake will mean more parts and a new supply chain. Makes zero sense.

 

[nativewolf]

I'm not sure of anything at this point. The fact that Franz essentially gave a "wait and see" response isn't reassuring that there isn't at least some truth to the Reuters article. He could have easily said "yes, we are still planning to build the $25K consumer car", yet for some reason he did not.

I think anything is possible. We know we'll see the RT on 8/8, but whether or not we see the consumer version, or even if we'll get a confirmation that it's still being planned, well I'm not sure of any of it right now.

One thing I do know, FSD v12.3.3 is freaking impressive, and I'm dying to see how much v12.4 improves upon it. Tesla seems very confident in RT's today, more so than I've ever seen them before. That's extremely bullish no matter what happens to the consumer Gen3, IMHO.

Yes EM is bullish on it, they have not started any process in CA which will likely take 2-3 years just in approvals to begin any limited service. They also were bullish on the 4680 and solar roof and roadster 2 and Semi.

At this point I don't see how they get to 20million cars? I see the legal hurdles to widespread global RT deployment being gigantic.

 

[winfield100]

Redundancy is in the compute/software. It is fully compliant.

OT, perhaps way OT
@Discoducky
I have a question you may have insight into.
I have been experimenting with FSD(Supervised) by randomly just 'bopping around the neighborhood' (lots of dead ends, 'n such, 400 miles canals so lots of turns)
I turn on FSD(S) and cruise and it seems to take "the scenic route" with "no particular place to go" (nothing in 'navigate to ___')
I _try_ to steer by holding down, 2nd detent, turn signal, it _usually_ obeys but twice ignored, once "got confused & stopped"

_Can you steer with the turn signals with lots of notice at slow speeds?
(Is it a bug or a feature or nascent, glimmerings of emergent somewhat concerning behaviors?)

 

[Usain]

I see the legal hurdles to widespread global RT deployment being gigantic.

I don't. This is transformative technology. No government wants to miss out on the benefits.

As long as Tesla robotaxi is proven to be safe and reliable there will be no stopping it. "Safe and reliable" will be the challenge. If Tesla can accomplish that, regulation will fall in line.

 

[unk45]

"Use your car as a profit center" makes more sense in areas of medium-low population density where it's harder to make a robotaxi fleet economically viable. It's a good intermediate hybrid option. Owners can retain the benefits of having their own private car available on-demand, while also making money on the times they aren't using it.

This is a model that has been very effective with aircraft. Definitely not a profit center for those but can be a major cost reduction center. Just as with those, I think the Robotaxi model would have quite different demand patterns depending on location. It's quite reasonable to see people arriving in business oriented airports having huge differences in demand profiles than those in primarily tourist areas or dense city centers.

Just as with aircraft, boats, traditional car rental, and even Uber and 'limo' (US centric term to be sure) services the demand for specific vehicle types varies enormously. In general, the most expensive have lower frequency but higher margins and the less expensive higher frequency and lower margins.

Another quite plausible variant that certainly is on Elon's mind is that of proportional ownership, very common with aircraft, allowing people to buy into a common ownership market that gives the right to specific sue patterns. Business users have had great success with this model. A variant in one like American Airlines AirPass (just cancelled after 40 years! much of it with my membership, which prepaid for a specific use term with pre defined prices).

Nearly all the use models I can imagine call for a wide variety of available vehicles. Certainly Tesla could adapt most models to the RoboTaxi capabilities once those have been perfected.

The biggest question remaining IMHO, is the "last few meters and first few meters". Those are seldom accurately mapped or identified. In such attractive places for RoboTaxi as major hospital complexes, apartment blocks, business centers there are often not even easy to define specific places. In a few such places that I frequent even Taxi/Uber drivers are unaware of such locations and, even if they are they do not know how to go to a specific place. Unless there is a really innovative way to cope with such issues the Total Addressable Market will be quite small. Neither here nor elsewhere do I hear of any proposed consideration of solutions.
[for the record: I personally have had major problems in three such areas within the last year. All three are in areas I regularly visit, but in complexes with bizarrely confusing numbering/identification systems. Despite allegations to the contrary I think I am niether stupid nor senile. So, how quickly will there be a completely autonomous solution to such locations. These exist in every country I know, I suspect they exist everywhere. That specifically includes New York (all Bouroughs), London (where I lived on a Mews not even known by possessors of 'The Knowledge'), Paris and Tokyo among others.

Sorry for length of the example. Many of us are constrained to a specific geographical area in our thinking. For Robtaxi the targets are global. FedEx famously agonized over 'the last mile'. Every logistics model agonizes over localized exceptions...and so it is for Robotaxi.

 

[unk45]

OT, perhaps way OT
@Discoducky
I have a question you may have insight into.
I have been experimenting with FSD(Supervised) by randomly just 'bopping around the neighborhood' (lots of dead ends, 'n such, 400 miles canals so lots of turns)
I turn on FSD(S) and cruise and it seems to take "the scenic route" with "no particular place to go" (nothing in 'navigate to ___')
I _try_ to steer by holding down, 2nd detent, turn signal, it _usually_ obeys but twice ignored, once "got confused & stopped"

_Can you steer with the turn signals with lots of notice at slow speeds?
(Is it a bug or a feature or nascent, glimmerings of emergent somewhat concerning behaviors?)

This is a variant on 'the last mile' I just posted about, but in a respect I did not mention. Many areas in every country have such places, canals and other impediments. As I write this I am within 10 meters of a dead end street that shows on nearly all maps as one that crosses a small river which actually passes on the edge of my property. At least twenty times a day some Uber driver tries to drive into my wall.

So, who's going to help Robotaxi to avoid @winfield100 's "no particular place to go" problem? I know it will not hit my wall, and suspect it might even make a U turn without breaking my flower pots, a large advance, in my opinion.

 

[Ipcress]

Thank you, Gigapress. Your post make me to think and speculate a bit and I came to the conclusion that Robotaxi could be truly revolutionary. I think it could transform the world like the iPhone did, with the major difference that there is no Competitior/Android in sight.

Many in this forum could enjoy FSD V12.3. I think we are all bound to our experiences and when we try to predict the future we start with our own experiences.

But, in my opinion, this will be not only be a revolution of (low cost) personal transport, this will also be a revolution of (low cost) material transport. I think Tesla did not target the delivery segment so far because Elon thought the whole time L5 is just around the corner. Elon was wrong, but I personally don’t think Elon will be wrong forever.

I read in this forum that many disengagement of FSD 12.3 are at the very beginning or at the very end of a particular journey. When we think about material transport, the challenge is the same. The beginning and the end of the journey. Luckily Tesla has a solution for this in mind - Optimus.

My prediction is: Robotaxi will not only be a robotic taxi, it will also serve as a taxi for a robot to enable material transport.

When we think about the usage of a taxi service over the day there are clearly hours in the morning and in the evening with high demand in personal transport. During many other hours, there is low demand for personal transport and during the night the demand is very low. During these hours, Robotaxi and Optimus can be used to transport parcels and anything we can think of.

When we think of the requirements of the robotaxi service, hygiene will be important. The car will be easy to clean and kept clean. But also the air will be cleaned and it is not so difficult from a technical standpoint to offer an air quality similar to in an operation room at the beginnig of the drive (source: I have experience in designing pharmaceutical plants). I imagine that some will never use public transport again.

Also entertainment during the journey will be important. For this purpose, each passenger will have his own dispay.

Special needs will be important. For example you will be able to book a childs seat with your drive, a hassle when renting a car today in my experience.

Versatility will be important. The seats can be laid flat down (by Optimus) to expand the cargo space.

Now lets focus to how the car will be produced. The battery needs only to be about 25 kWh. Tax credits or manufacturing credits don‘t really matter. Cheap LFP batteries will be imported from China if no domestic supply is available. AWD, high performance and high speed are no requirement for Robotaxi. Also the charge rate is of less importance. The system will allocate the cars and the requested drives and ensure that the available battery capacity is sufficient in 95 % of the drives (and could offer a discount if charging is needed during a particular trip). So I don‘t expect that Tesla will be battery constrained. I am confident that Elon will do what it takes to start production of Robotaxi as soon there is a regulatory approval in one city. I don‘t think the speed of the production ramp will be of particular importance since many other challenges need to be solved concurrent to offer a robotaxi service.

I think the production cost for Robotaxi will be much lower than 25‘000 USD in mass production. I think it will not be possible to buy one for at least some years. So the whole responsibility is at Tesla and with the data aquired during use Tesla can optimize their efforts. I hope this reduces the complaints of unhappy owners for example if the battery degrades too fast. Tesla will earn money for every drive and the offered rates could be similar to the existing rates of competitors (eg. Uber, Fedex, UPS, Public Transport).

I think the low cost car plan (model 2) was not scrapped. But who will really care about model 2 as soon as robotaxi is established in the market?

While I don‘t know which of my predictions will turn out to be true, I think this post shows the potential of Robotaxi.

There were many critical posts in the last days, written by a long standing, now disappointed forum member. I can understand that. However, we are never able to change what happened in the past and therefore we need to look ahead. So, lets do a simple napkin scenario analysis regarding FSD/Robotaxi (put in your own numbers and outcomes):

• Worst Case Scenario: Tesla scraps all plans for Level 5 autonomy by End of 2025 => Let’s assume a shareprice of 100.
• Best Case Scenario: Robotaxi service incl. Optimus support is introduced in the major cities in the US by End of 2025 with a clear path to fast expand the service to other areas => Let’s assume a shareprice of 600.

It is possible to do this regarding other topics, e.g. how high is the risk that Elon writes stuipd posts on X and how would the shareprice react.

So it seems that there is some potential to the upside regarding FSD/Robotaxi. We are investing because we are willing to take risks and because we are willing to support the mission. Investing, particularly investing in TSLA, is not easy.

Hold on your butts!

Now, this post, and others like it are why I continue to participate in this forum. thank you GigaPress!

 

[jerry33]

If latency can be reduced sufficiently (big if), why not use steering instead. Enhance mobility and avoid the need to emergency brake at all. Steer out of the problem beyond the ability of biological reaction time.

The best emergency stop is….. well, you know.

That only solves some problems. Presumably you wouldn't want it to steer off a cliff, into the opposite lane, parked car, tree, or even a high curb. There is really no replacement for good brakes (VTOL might solve most though)