Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EQC_]

Zanegler Semi update Apr 6. His summary: New Semi build is large! Pace is slow, not as urgent as Texas seemed. Not worth watching.

On a related note:

is anybody on this forum connected to Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations ?

That site posts satellite imagery of the assorted Tesla factory sites, with updates as new images become available.

But, I've been unable to fill that side of my obsession lately -- the site says that it hasn't checked for new photo updates since December 7, 2023....so it's been over 4 months since the last update. There have been gaps in photo availablility before, but I think this is the longest I've seen....

 

[Usain]

Certainly one of the most challenging environments for FSD so will tell us a lot about how far it has come and how far it still has to go.

While that sounds interesting, I'm not sure it would help you reach your goal of finding out how far FSD has to go.

I greatly sympathize with you and I support your goal wholeheartedly. Now that Tesla is end-to-end with sufficient training compute, the race is on. We know with almost 100% certainty that FSD can now be trained for robotaxi. The question is "how fast"?

But looking at today's version and even comparing subsequent versions does not give you a good picture. Just knowing FSD's current imitations does not answer any questions about how hard it is to solve a particular problem.

The thing I would like is to have better insight into how Tesla trains the system. We know that Tesla is now using over 2 million real-world video clips and simulated clips. But what is the curation process like? And given a particular limitation, how does Tesla improve the system to make better decisions so that limitation goes away? How does Tesla prevent regressions? Etc.

I think we have a vague idea about the answers, but to even make an educated guess as to when the system will be ready for something like robotaxi, we need specifics. From what I've seen, the only ones who know the specifics are those on the development team.

So the best thing we really have to go on is Ashok's statement:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774673326583210476

 

[Skryll]

Sounds as if someone paid off someone.

Because level 2 like Tesla FSD supervised is allowed while RT (which doesn't exist yet) doesn't ?

I don't think this will prevent RT from happening eventually once it is proven safe enough, just a stop gap law to prevent Wild West like cruise

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Does this mean RT will never drive in cold weather?

No, of course not.

But it's an RT. It can decide when it's battery is too cold for safe regen based on how much regen MAY be needed for any given drive. High altitude pick up near a mountain west of Denver, for a drop off in Denver? A lot of regen may be needed.

Flat lands of Wichita? Not much regen needed.

Why is this conversation taking place here, in an INVESTOR forum?

Let's let it drop, but the reality is that there are some significant COGS savings available with the RT . . . and I'm pretty sure the sharp engineers at Tesla will find them.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777044223256093018

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Gotta love $TSLAQ logic:

 

[Usain]

Gotta love $TSLAQ logic:

View attachment 1037047

That's really funny since we all know "Delivery in 2025" just means that Tesla is sold out for 2024.

It means that so many buyers have put down their deposit, Tesla knows they won't be able to deliver all those orders until next year.

This is more bullish than $TSLAQ could possibly handle. Because it also seems to mean that all those sales will be the extra-expensive Foundation Series trims. Am I wrong about that?

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777762989312999716

 

[elasalle]

Gotta love $TSLAQ logic:

View attachment 1037047

Tesla - "CT sold out for 2024"
---> TSLAQ - "TSLA stopped Production" the TSLAQ LLM model must be interesting

 

[Krugerrand]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777044223256093018

He’s such a rocket scientist.

 

[Krugerrand]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777762989312999716

LIES!

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777762989312999716

BI expects US Battery EV penetration to reach 25% by 2030

25%?? That's really not so good.

If Wright's Law holds, the number will be a lot higher than 25% as ICE cars just won't be able to compete on price.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Eh? Inventory discounts are in place in many countries, and have been all year.

On all models outside of the CT and Highland.

That's really funny since we all know "Delivery in 2025" just means that Tesla is sold out for 2024.

It means that so many buyers have put down their deposit, Tesla knows they won't be able to deliver all those orders until next year.

This is more bullish than $TSLAQ could possibly handle. Because it also seems to mean that all those sales will be the extra-expensive Foundation Series trims. Am I wrong about that?

You were, seemingly incorrect about the deliveries in 2024 after launch on the page. They haven't even gone through half the list of pre-orders, yet.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777790074769285126

 

[geometro]

Anec-data.... co-worker bought a LR MY today because it was so cheap (mid-40s).
He is "upgrading" (my word, not his!) from his 911...

 

[Usain]

On all models outside of the CT and Highland.
You were, seemingly incorrect about the deliveries in 2024 after launch on the page. They haven't even gone through half the list of pre-orders, yet.

Yeah. I'm happy that I was wrong about that one. Though it is possible that anyone who ordered back then will have the opportunity to buy the Foundation Series in 2024.

It was misleading to say "Delivery in 2024" when they didn't tell you that the only way you had a hope of really getting delivery this year was to plunk down an extra $20K for the Foundation Series. Even then, I'm not sure all those willing to pay extra will get their Cybertruck in 2024.

It's also possible that even Tesla didn't know that the order conversion rate would be this high.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Yeah. I'm happy that I was wrong about that one. Though it is possible that anyone who ordered back then will have the opportunity to buy the Foundation Series in 2024.

It was misleading to say "Delivery in 2024" when they didn't tell you that the only way you had a hope of really getting delivery this year was to plunk down an extra $20K for the Foundation Series. Even then, I'm not sure all those willing to pay extra will get their Cybertruck in 2024.

It's also possible that even Tesla didn't know that the order conversion rate would be this high.

Saw an old gearhead friend today, first thing he says to me was "I just saw a Cyber Truck in person that you've been talking about for the last 3 years." Man, that thing is awesome!! I can't wait till you take delivery so i can sit in it.

Mind you, this guy is from Arkansas and drives a Dodge Hellcat.

 

[cliff harris]

Gotta love $TSLAQ logic:

View attachment 1037047

The sheer delusion and incompetence of these people baffles me on a daily basis. Every article about Tesla, every news item, every tweet, every financial 'story' is just littered with people who must by any possible metric, be in the low-IQ range.
Its quit exciting really, because given the sheer tonnage of FUD nonsense and irrational elon-hate, the complete and utter failure by these people to prevent the company growing is a sight to behold. We all know that once people experience a Tesla first hand they are often instant converts with no going back. Over time, we approach a tipping point where the FUD is so blatant it just stops working, and electrek and business insider go bankrupt...

Its also a MASSIVE opportunity. To be able to get the stock at this price, when we have a clear, huge informational advantage over the majority of retail investors is quite something.
Its a sign that when the SP starts to climb, it may get very high very fast. Expect a lot of 'Tesla's fortunes in shock reversal as FSD finally works' and 'The cybertruck shockingly seems to be popular as hell' articles in the usual clickbait swamps.

 

[hobbes]

Would still be curious on daily production. Curious how the ramp is going.

This is the best I´ve seen, it is a week old though but maybe @Troy will post an update

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774574335828603151

 

[uscbucsfan]

Yeah. I'm happy that I was wrong about that one. Though it is possible that anyone who ordered back then will have the opportunity to buy the Foundation Series in 2024.

It was misleading to say "Delivery in 2024" when they didn't tell you that the only way you had a hope of really getting delivery this year was to plunk down an extra $20K for the Foundation Series. Even then, I'm not sure all those willing to pay extra will get their Cybertruck in 2024.

It's also possible that even Tesla didn't know that the order conversion rate would be this high.

Considering how many more haven't been contacted on the preo-order list, I wouldn't be shocked if Foundation Series continued into next year.

Imagine thinking it's a bad thing that Tesla has a lot of order confirmations.