Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

FWIW, the India giga announcement is the largest SP catalyst I can see other than a large interest rate cut.

I'm hoping this happen prior to earnings or at earnings and I'm watching this closely as it will signal a massive shift for Tesla to autonomy

Can you explain how a Giga India announcement would have anything to do with autonomy?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Mine too, my electricity costs have been going down over the past year here in PA. Currently locked at $0.058/kWh for the next half year or so. Makes driving the Model Y super affordable!

??? We pay 14 cents in PA. What area are you in? I'm in Lancaster.

 

[Musskiah]

LG 4680 production kicks in Aug... Tesla 4680 battery production by LG starting later this year

Also, "LGES is thinking of mass-producing the 4680 battery in China at its Nanjing factory."

Tesla did send the Cybertuck to China and it is reportedly going to Thailand next. Jus' sayin'

Cybertruck production kicks it into high gear in the US in Q3 (red box)

 

[Musskiah]

Another record high # of shares shorted in TSLA (at a relative minima per usual)

The gain in short interest from 2/15-3/31 is up 21% (88.65M to 107.48M) and from 1/15-3/31 up 33%. Is that Burnt Hair I smell?

 

[wipster]

New ad? "Cybertruck: Best in class, with room to grow." I could be a marketer
In wonder if Tesla are hedging multiple bets with that space in the pack. Worst case, a double layer of 2170's and room to spare. 2170's will be available in quantity for quite a while. If thermal management improves (speculative here that this is a concern preventing double layering) OR cost reductions continue, double up the 4680 layer. Massive range at affordable cost. Or, as others have stated, move to a taller form factor (Rivian's or others mentioned before) and harvest that additional range.
Multiple options with only a pack and BMS change, hopefully. Cover all bases with minimal disruption to the Cybertruck ramp. We like that ramp. Leave it the heck alone.
Tangentially, most folks may have forgotten that the 4680 time line aimed for 2026. I recall the rough order of improvements as:
1. Make 'em fast (build for mass manufacture)
2. Make 'em cheap (minimal complexity, minimum material)
3. Make 'em better (chemistry improvements yielding better energy density)
To be sure, all are being worked on at once. The progress on each is hard to quantify out here.
Last Tegtmeyer flyover of Giga Texas that I saw, he described some of the ongoing work as adding to line 1.5, as in about a line and a half of 4680 production are currently installed. Anyone know more detail?

A bit of your topic here, but is it possible, conceivable, desirable (?) to use 2 different types of batteries in a vehicle, say 4680's and 2170's? One type that charges quicker but perhaps with less range and the other that charges slower but with longer range? And with the battery extender for the CyberTruck isn't that what they're doing? I'm quite uninformed and naive even on the subject, so any learned enlightenment will be appreciated!

 

[CaliBear1]

So only deliberate collisions? lol

Seriously, not all collisions are with other items that can communicate.

Yes, that's exactly what I meant. Vehicles will not crash into each other once properly equipped. And they will not crash into inanimate objects or obstacles. But if someone chooses to disable the system and goes suicide by vehicle or gets into a fit of road rage...

No system is perfect, and I made that distinction because humans are unpredictable and irrational creatures.

 

[MC3OZ]

A bit of your topic here, but is it possible, conceivable, desirable (?) to use 2 different types of batteries in a vehicle, say 4680's and 2170's? One type that charges quicker but perhaps with less range and the other that charges slower but with longer range? And with the battery extender for the CyberTruck isn't that what they're doing? I'm quite uninformed and naive even on the subject, so any learned enlightenment will be appreciated!

I'm not going to claim "learned enlightenment", but this is my take.

Different types of cells in the same vehicle would effectively be 2 different batteries, each battery would need its own BMS?. There needs to be an architecture to stitch it all together, perhaps the "range extender" plugs into the main battery. I would love to see an architecture where another range extender can plug into that range extender.

Fundamentally I think the "range extender" is a good idea because the vehicle is not carrying that weight around when it doesn't need the range, and you may be able to hire it when needed, rather than purchase it.

I've speculated previously on a 46120 cell format for the new Roadster, if we are going to see that type of cell that is the most likely vehicle.

However, I was unaware that there could be a trade-off in height which affects the cycle-life of the cell, Limiting Factor is investigating the issue.

So we might find out that for technical reasons 46110 works better than 46120, or something like that.

4680 was chosen for reasons of price, it was the form factor that delivers good results at a low price.

So even if 46120 is possible, it will cost more and weigh more. That is the bottom line, if you want more range via bigger cells, or more cells, you need to pay for it.

Increasing energy density is probably the cheapest way to add more range.

 

[Musskiah]

@Discoduck Can you explain why India giga announcement signals a massive shift to autonomy?

@Discoducky misspelled your handle

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

This is going to get worse before it gets better. After the chip bottleneck we are currently experiencing, the next bottleneck is transformers, and finally electricity.

However, that being said, your thesis that demand for EVs is down because of high electricity costs is pretty weak. Most states are under 0.20 cents per KWh. In Ohio, where my cost is just under 0.16 cents per KWh, it costs me less than $10 to fill up my MYP (300 miles) and less than $12 to fill up my MXLR (340 miles). Between the two cars I drive 30k miles per annum, and save over $3000. So wha'chew talkin' 'bout Willis?

Well over 35% of Tesla's U.S. sales go to California alone, by far Tesla's largest state, where electricity rates have absolutely gone up like crazy. And I've heard plenty of people mention it as a factor, so yeah I'm considering it is a contributor.

Not the only contributor to weak EV demand. I am actually curious what people think is the reason for softening of EV demand (vs ICE)? Not interest rates as both are affected. What else? FUD on EV costs, reliabilty, charging?

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Who is in your back pocket? WSJ? BI? CNBS?

I know, any attempt at not-over-the-top estimations are not only mocked here, but immediately labeled as FUD.

But hilariously if you looked at my projections over the past year (many of which were disagreed with and mocked), I ended up being overoptimistic. Just much less so than most others.

So it is indeed amusing to me that people think a projection of a 3-4x increase in miles per critical disengagement over a 4 month period is absurd, compared to the ~3x improvement that occured over the last 2 years. I'm actually predictiion an increase in the rate of improvement, and that's FUD?

I think you need take a step back and really think about what FUD is vs conservative modeling.

Do you know what absurd would be? To expect a 100x improvement in miles per disengagement in the next 12 months, let alone just in the next 4 months. That's fanatical and so unrealistic based on rate of progress of other challenging AI problems.

The real problem is people unethically pumping the stock based on unrealistic projections on rate of improvement based on nothing emperical.

 

[2daMoon]

Today we've had talk of high insurance rates, inflation, and high electricity costs and now the latest from Sasha provides the answers to explain each of these concerns, and more. All, delivered in his uniquely amusing style. Enjoy.

 

[2daMoon]

But hilariously if you looked at my projections over the past year (many of which were disagreed with and mocked), I ended up being overoptimistic. Just much less so than most others.

Please, do list all of your accomplishments, since kindergarten if necessary. Make some charts while you are at it.

Put circles and arrows on them and notes explaining just how brilliant you have been, are, and will continue to be.

This would represent a more honest assessment of your ego-driven style and likely be more entertaining than reading your usual posts.

We do enjoy a modicum of jocularity around here every now and again.

 

[Musskiah]

Well over 35% of Tesla's U.S. sales go to California alone, by far Tesla's largest state, where electricity rates have absolutely gone up like crazy. And I've heard plenty of people mention it as a factor, so yeah I'm considering it is a contributor.

Not the only contributor to weak EV demand. I am actually curious what people think is the reason for softening of EV demand (vs ICE)? Not interest rates as both are affected. What else? FUD on EV costs, reliabilty, charging?

Nope, not buying this argument either. California electricity rates range from 0.19-0.29 cents per KWh, so a MY owner in California is paying only $13-16 to fill up. Although this is 20-80% higher than I pay (and I'm apparently higher at 0.16 cents per KWh), know what else is 60% higher in Cali than my state? Gas! At over $5 a gallon, it's incredibly more expensive to drive (and maintain) an ICE vehicle in California as well.

If we see Q2 inventory numbers rise, the 'soft demand' thesis will certainly carry more weight. As of right now, as is evidenced by inventory numbers, MX, MS, and Cybertruck numbers are not what we would consider weak. M3 remains to be seen as the Highland ramp continues. MY is the one to continue to watch.

 

[Musskiah]

I know, any attempt at not-over-the-top estimations are not only mocked here, but immediately labeled as FUD.

But hilariously if you looked at my projections over the past year (many of which were disagreed with and mocked), I ended up being overoptimistic. Just much less so than most others.

So it is indeed amusing to me that people think a projection of a 3-4x increase in miles per critical disengagement over a 4 month period is absurd, compared to the ~3x improvement that occured over the last 2 years. I'm actually predictiion an increase in the rate of improvement, and that's FUD?

I think you need take a step back and really think about what FUD is vs conservative modeling.

Do you know what absurd would be? To expect a 100x improvement in miles per disengagement in the next 12 months, let alone just in the next 4 months. That's fanatical and so unrealistic based on rate of progress of other challenging AI problems.

The real problem is people unethically pumping the stock based on unrealistic projections on rate of improvement based on nothing emperical.

So Bloomberg pays you then?

 

[Musskiah]

Today we've had talk of high insurance rates, inflation, and high electricity costs and now the latest from Sasha provides the answers to explain each of these concerns, and more. All, delivered in his uniquely amusing style. Enjoy.

I enjoy Sasha's style

Video summary:
Inflation data is being manipulated. If there was any intention of bringing inflation data down, the government would crack down on the energy and insurance company cartels.

Energy is up not because the cost of nuclear, natural gas, or coal is up...but because ENERGY COMPANIES are profiteering

Transportation services are up because of AUTO INSURANCE insane company profits

Powerwall, Megapacks AND Tesla Insurance are coming for their butts.

Shelter inflation is coming down slowly. It is 36% of all inflation data and is a lagging indicator.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If we see Q2 inventory numbers rise, the 'soft demand' thesis will certainly carry more weight.

Nope. It’s just Tesla creating their own FSD Fleet.

Well… that and possibly Hybrid rebate mania to combat fuel (and insurance) costs as the main theme.

Anyone tried to buy a used Hybrid? I did. There is no easy way to know if the battery is dead. The car will run fine; it only shows in poor fuel economy. How ya gonna test drive that?

But they do compete in price with Tesla. And they are more suited for apartment dwellers, some HOV benefits, plus… you can always just add more gas. So to many, the short term value proposition is better with Hybrids as this crowd likely does not believe charging infrastructure is adequate for their needs.

Longer term, Hybrid owners are gonna get burned as some say. They will eventually become an unaffordable curse. Local radio station vehicle donations will be overwhelmed with Hybrids. Right when the warranty expires of course. Future costs to maintain will skyrocket due to parts supply chain chaos and collapse, in addition to gouging service fees in trying to make up losses. I don't know when, but a few years is about all for the market to flip.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oh… and for the above reasons, FSD/RT also kills the Hybrid (and then some).

Maybe it was the tax rebate laws that caused a change in priorities to focus on FSD. Meaning that Tesla felt they could intercept more ICE or Hybrid sales sooner with FSD than with the $25k sales track. If correct, they wouldn't need the budget car sale and some our existing vehicles might actually get things going until the RT builds out. (Otherwise this strategy will be delayed waiting for RT ramp).

This whole picture feels very bullish FSD and the stock later this year. It’s logical and risky as usual. Tesla would rather you did not own any $25k Tesla. I can’t quote them, it’s just obvious.

I bet we see an RT pilot this year, using existing vehicles, possibly modified.

 

[MC3OZ]

Oh… and for the above reasons, FSD/RT also kills the Hybrid (and then some).

Maybe it was the tax rebate laws that caused a change in priorities to focus on FSD. Meaning that Tesla felt they could intercept more ICE or Hybrid sales sooner with FSD than with the $25k sales track. If correct, they wouldn't need the budget car sale and some our existing vehicles might actually get things going until the RT builds out. (Otherwise this strategy will be delayed waiting for RT ramp).

This whole picture feels very bullish FSD and the stock later this year. It’s logical and risky as usual. Tesla would rather you did not own any $25k Tesla. I can’t quote them, it’s just obvious.

I bet we see an RT pilot this year, using existing vehicles, possibly modified.

If Tony Seba is right, EVs will reach price parity with ICE, which means they will be cheaper than hybrids, with lower fuel costs, and lower maintenance costs.

Should a hybrid do most of its mileage on a battery, that saves on fuel and maintenance, and I can see owners preferring hybrid to ICE for this reason.

In terms of the Tesla mission, this "almost an EV" hybrid is a step in the right direction. If level 2 charging becomes more readily available, that mode of commuting may become easier to sustain. And the family can also use the pure EV for the road trip.

Should any Boring Company tunnels be built, EVs and travel in them but ICE and hybrids can't.

If Boring tunnels are built they will be a much faster way of commuting into busy city centres.

That is my hunch for the RT unveil on 8/8, Boring Company tunnels may be mentioned.

 

[Cobbler]

Hmmm... Reuters and lies....
Worth reading!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776990187278704944

 

[Fred42]

LG 4680 production kicks in Aug... Tesla 4680 battery production by LG starting later this year

in South Korea