Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

And Tesla's batteries turned out to be not so great, after all.

Well, that explains why other manufacturers (Panasonic, CATL, etc.) are adopting the 4680 format and expanding upon it with 46XXX (Rivian) then.

Thanks for your keen and enlightening assessment.

Perhaps you can get that memo off to each of those companies following Tesla's lead. Don't forget there's a new cover sheet for those reports.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Says who? You? Are you a financial investment advisor? I’ll pass regardless. You’re not the first to prematurely pull the fire alarm. Get in line.

Mark my words. My investment will be just fine. But hey, maybe you can convince some others to sell. Carry on.

Who said your investment won't be fine?

Who said to sell?

It seems you are projecting some PTSD of past FUD on things I didn't say or imply. I didn't say the is going bankrupt lol.

This is why we can't have a rational conversation. Many people here are ready to hit the nuke button as soon as anyone says anything disconcerting.

My modeling says at minimum Tesla will produce $6 in EPS by 2029. At a PE ratio of 40, that would support a share price of $240. Again this isn't factoring in robotaxi / optimus stuff, so this is a very conservative estimate.

Is a $240 price target a SELL signal? Weird.

Do I find recent nuggets of information slight weightings against the idea that Tesla will be producing 15% operating margins on automotive and energy (sans AI efforts) and therefor unlikely to support a $400 share price?

Yes

Are you and some others going to cry about it and block me?

Yes

 

[EVNow]

Well, that explains why other manufacturers (Panasonic, CATL, etc.) are adopting the 4680 format and expanding upon it with 46XXX (Rivian) then.

Thanks for your keen and enlightening assessment.

Perhaps you can get that memo off to each of those companies following Tesla's lead. Don't forget there's a new cover sheet for those reports.

Dude, you don't have to attack every poster who posts something you don't like.

We are not talking about 4680. But the actual production. Its not easy.

 

[wipster]

Meh. It’s one hour. Here’s the math - very close to a 10% reduction. Do I need to connect the dots for you?

The message seems clear to me. Do what you’re doing with 10% less resources. I like it. The leaner and meaner Tesla gets, the better my investment looks.

However (and I'm replying to your post Krug as it made the most sense) has anyone considered that this 10% ROF is actually opening the doors for the Optimus'? Perhaps these are tasks that can soon be done by the humanoid robots. Would be interesting to see just what positions are leaving and whether they're based on the job or the performance review of the staff member?

This is a different situation than prior ROF's. Would make for a good question or 2 during the financial presentation next week ..

 

[Zero CO2]

because I've heard "leaving to spend more time with my family" a million times and far more often than not it isn't true. I think it is the "dog ate my homework" excuse for leaving a company.

I'm a cynical person by nature, so that is my reaction

I don't think Tesla is doomed, and he can be replaced, but I do think there is a reason for this departure beyond the stated one. If he has a better opportunity, great! If he really is burned out and wants a break, then that's great too. If he has a problem with the direction of the company, or a conflict with Elon, then that is not so great.

it could be any or all of those reasons ... and if he did not like the direction AI/Robotics then his role is diminished going forward ... still and important role but no longer as key going forward ...

 

[FreqFlyer]

Battery and drive train are imho much less important for Robotaxi. They don’t require speed and performance, so the current technology will probably suffice. Cheap LFP batteries from Chinese suppliers which can be charged to 100% without much degradation are also just fine. No more need for revolutionary developments. I would not be surprised if Tesla eventually stops developing its own batteries. That would be a radical and maybe even painful decision, but Elon doesn’t care about sentiment.

I have been trying to reconcile the Tesla 4680 form factor and the increasingly cheaper and innovative Chinese batteries that Tesla uses. And that would make a lot of sense. Even the thought of Tesla paying CATL or the like to use their formulation in the 4680s. Either that or Tesla comes up with a Solid State breakthrough.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

because I've heard "leaving to spend more time with my family" a million times and far more often than not it isn't true. I think it is the "dog ate my homework" excuse for leaving a company.

I'm a cynical person by nature, so that is my reaction

I don't think Tesla is doomed, and he can be replaced, but I do think there is a reason for this departure beyond the stated one. If he has a better opportunity, great! If he really is burned out and wants a break, then that's great too. If he has a problem with the direction of the company, or a conflict with Elon, then that is not so great.

Yeah it's just common sense applied to previous experiences. Don't know why people would radicalize your vanilla conjecture.

What's interesting of note is that at both SpaceX and Tesla, highly valued employees are emphatically offered a 3-4 month sabbatical if they resign. Many take up on the offer as it's just 3 months of paid healthcare at worst, then can still quit.

So either Baglino wasn't offered this, or he was and he still chose not to take the sabbitical. If it was just to spend more time with family, taking the sabbatical first is a no brainer.

 

[unk45]

Hmmm. Great points.

If only I could start a thread where everyone had to enter only via longhand. Or verbally.
That would be wonderful!

Oops: this refers to @unk45’s (who else?) rejoinder-rejoinder. You who are interested: go find it yourself. I’m busy.

As it happens all posts here are verbal, since all of them contain verbs. Fewer of them are oral, at least I suspect that is so.

Or are you referring to only pictures?

 

[cab]

because I've heard "leaving to spend more time with my family" a million times and far more often than not it isn't true. I think it is the "dog ate my homework" excuse for leaving a company.

I'm a cynical person by nature, so that is my reaction

I don't think Tesla is doomed, and he can be replaced, but I do think there is a reason for this departure beyond the stated one. If he has a better opportunity, great! If he really is burned out and wants a break, then that's great too. If he has a problem with the direction of the company, or a conflict with Elon, then that is not so great.

Agree with concerns around the LONG-TIME folks leaving given my experience in corporate America. Sure, occasionally, some dead weight has been hanging around way too long, but more often than not the company is damaged when all of that years long irreplaceable institutional knowledge walks out the door. The folks that often replace them are brought in for their "fresh ideas" from another industry and we hear things like "I have been working at Pepsi for years and did great there...sugar water manufacturing is just like <insert name of new company's business> at its core so I will do great things here". It rarely plays out like that.

Indeed, these departures worry me a lot more than 10% RIFs (which seem like annual events in a lot of companies).

 

[unk45]

I have been trying to reconcile the Tesla 4680 form factor and the increasingly cheaper and innovative Chinese batteries that Tesla uses. And that would make a lot of sense. Even the thought of Tesla paying CATL or the like to use their formulation in the 4680s. Either that or Tesla comes up with a Solid State breakthrough.

So what do the CATL equipment Tesla is buying for a US factory actually make?
CATL has a rather large variety so even 4680 could contain many different formulations, it's just a form factor after all.

 

[Krugerrand]

If he has a problem with the direction of the company, or a conflict with Elon, then that is not so great.

Why is this not so great? When was the last time Drew built and ran an EV company?

Since you’re talking about what you heard a million times before; I’ve heard a million times before that so and so leaving Tesla because they didn’t like the direction Elon was taking the company was a bad thing. Heard it about Rawlinson, Sampson, Blankenship, Gullien, Fields -

Yet, here the company stands. Not bankrupt. One of, if not, THE strongest bottom lines of any business on the planet. #1 selling vehicle of any kind in the world last year. The best charging network in the world now adopted by everyone. Production ramp of what may become an iconic vehicle heralding in a new generation of what a vehicle can be. Manufacturing techniques that nobody in 100 years of building cars ever thought of, being implemented. On the precipice of giving mobility back to a much ignored population - never mind what the world will look like if nobody ever has to drive themselves again.

And you’re all twisted up about one guy, who may or may not - because you don’t actually know - not be in agreement with Elon. Just, wow.

 

[2daMoon]

Who said your investment won't be fine?

Who said to sell?

It seems you are projecting some PTSD of past FUD on things I didn't say or imply. I didn't say the is going bankrupt lol.

This is why we can't have a rational conversation. Many people here are ready to hit the nuke button as soon as anyone says anything disconcerting.

My modeling says at minimum Tesla will produce $6 in EPS by 2029. At a PE ratio of 40, that would support a share price of $240. Again this isn't factoring in robotaxi / optimus stuff, so this is a very conservative estimate.

Is a $240 price target a SELL signal? Weird.

Do I find recent nuggets of information slight weightings against the idea that Tesla will be producing 15% operating margins on automotive and energy (sans AI efforts) and therefor unlikely to support a $400 share price?

Yes

Are you and some others going to cry about it and block me?

Yes

Granted, some of what you share is based in fact. Despite your style of presenting it in a fashion that triggers responses, which you classify as crying. Very mature.

Likewise, other things you post are purely based on opinion and are often laced with vitriol, giving the appearance of begging for a fight. Which, when it comes, you back down and try to paint the other person as the villain in the caper you orchestrated. Is this what they mean by passive-aggressive behavior?

Your efforts have the flavor of promoting a generally negative outlook on things. Whether or not this is intentional and agenda-based, or, simply a result of nature and nurture, I couldn't say.

Taking time to share your insight in a fact-based and balanced presentation would go a long way toward curtailing the responses you repeatedly mention as if they were a concern for you.

 

[unk45]

Always good for an experiment!
It was actually really hard. Like should I connect the B? I can't remember. I haven’t tried long-hand in decades.
First try, here's the sample - as they say in the Trademark business.

View attachment 1038730

Happy Monday!

If that was really your handwriting you've revealed much information!

 

[2daMoon]

Dude, you don't have to attack every poster who posts something you don't like.

We are not talking about 4680. But the actual production. Its not easy.

You said "the batteries turned out to be not so great" Didn't mention production at all.

With that in mind, are you indicating there is some other battery than 4680 that Tesla is producing?

I agree, Tesla has learned that battery production, like vehicle production, is hard.

I never expected it to be easy, and always figured it would take a while to figure out. Once they get it figured out, well, we'll see whether or not it was worth the wait.

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779949813431165416

 

[Krugerrand]

Who said your investment won't be fine?

Who said to sell?

It seems you are projecting some PTSD of past FUD on things I didn't say or imply. I didn't say the is going bankrupt lol.

This is why we can't have a rational conversation. Many people here are ready to hit the nuke button as soon as anyone says anything disconcerting.

My modeling says at minimum Tesla will produce $6 in EPS by 2029. At a PE ratio of 40, that would support a share price of $240. Again this isn't factoring in robotaxi / optimus stuff, so this is a very conservative estimate.

Is a $240 price target a SELL signal? Weird.

Do I find recent nuggets of information slight weightings against the idea that Tesla will be producing 15% operating margins on automotive and energy (sans AI efforts) and therefor unlikely to support a $400 share price?

Yes

Are you and some others going to cry about it and block me?

Yes

You need to catch up on your Tesla investor history. I’ve been here since 2012. A whole decade longer than you. I have shares with a $2 cost basis. I’ve held fearlessly through every made up drama, and I’ve forgotten more of them than you can come up with.

I don’t care what WallStreet tells YOU is an appropriate PE or EPS for Tesla. I don’t care what you model and until you prove otherwise, nobody else should either. People who model for a living, people highly respected who even teach modeling have all been wrong about Tesla from the start. So unless you’re a Tesla modeling savant, you’re wrong too.

I listen to what the COMPANY says. I watch what the COMPANY does. So far, the COMPANY is batting 1.000. The SP will get there when WallStreet is done milking everyone with a model who panics when a well—known employee of Tesla leaves the company, or one of the other million reasons for ‘long term investors should be on alert’ that never pans out.

 

[Krugerrand]

However (and I'm replying to your post Krug as it made the most sense) has anyone considered that this 10% ROF is actually opening the doors for the Optimus'? Perhaps these are tasks that can soon be done by the humanoid robots. Would be interesting to see just what positions are leaving and whether they're based on the job or the performance review of the staff member?

This is a different situation than prior ROF's. Would make for a good question or 2 during the financial presentation next week ..

It’s possible.

I’m inclined to think we’re at the ‘it’s easy for deadweight and over-expenditure and waste etc’ to hide in a big company that keeps growing, and with that growth being at multiple locations. Additionally, with the company being in a transitional state, I just think this is trimming fat and making sure everyone involved maintains that company culture that has led to today’s success.

I’d love for Optimus to be part of this, but I’m going to need to see proof. Like Tesla showing off something.

 

[FreqFlyer]

And the rumor turns real...

Hey, anyone buying today? (Just asking for a friend)

Over on Reddit, there are a couple of stories of how this has the employees on edge from an employee at Fremont. A person taking their car to the local service center being told wait times will up because they got hit with layoffs of techs. If you showed up at the Austin Factory and your badge did not work, that means you were laid off. That sucks, Tesla do better, you are not a startup anymore. Don't be surprised if the UAW did not use this to their advantage.

Wonder if the cheaper Chinese employees were hit as hard. Not all areas of the company were hit evenly. I don't get laying off tech, more cars sold mean more servicing needed.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

People who model for a living, people highly respected who even teach modeling have all been wrong about Tesla from the start. So unless you’re a Tesla modeling savant, you’re wrong too

Lucky for me, i model men's underwear for a living and I've been right on $TSLA so far

 

[Linkmeup]

Please someone confirm this, but executive teams generally leave due to a lack of strategic fit with what the organization is trying to do going forward.

If Model 2 is indeed scrapped and its full-on RT et al...then is it a possibility that Rohan and Drew weren't a strategic fit anymore and Tesla needs to bring aboard or up-level people that fit what they're trying to do over the next 1-10 years?