I’d feel better about it if he hadn’t been saying for 5 years that FSD would be solved that year. Fsd is going to happen, it’s just a matter of when, and if that timeframe lines up with this bet.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I’d feel better about it if he hadn’t been saying for 5 years that FSD would be solved that year. Fsd is going to happen, it’s just a matter of when, and if that timeframe lines up with this bet.
Xepa777
Banned
If you ignore the ignorant/blind echo chamber here the past few years and listened to the warnings me and others gave you could’ve seen this disaster coming. Hell go on Twitter and see prominent Tesla influencers like Chuck, Rob Maurer, and James (FSD tester) say they question robotaxi in the imminent future. It’s a joke. Everyone knows it except the most cultish here. I literally have had FSD since 2019. The occupancy network didn’t magically solve things. End to end vision didn’t magically solve things. It can’t do a right turn and choose the right lane for an immediate left, let alone a thousand edge cases which Tesla needs to cover if they want to insure a fleet. You’re gonna see some roadmap on 8/8 that most definitely won’t be followed (like battery day) and maybe safe deployments in low traffic areas that have no meaningful impact on ebitda like the Cybertruck. And you’re gonna be clinging onto the infinite hopium from those like @Krugerrand while you watch your bank account wither away. It’s a noble sacrifice though because this isn’t about making money right? It’s about building a better world
Think people. Think.
If you’re in this stock for the mission, cool. But even Elon was like
when asked how Optimus and FSD fits into his sustainability mission. Tesla is not the stock to make money in for the forseeable future. It’s actually a great way to lose money.I’ll give you a hint of when you can pour in leaps into this stock: when the community crowdsourced FSD tracker reaches 2000 miles per intervention. We’re at 50 today. By that time you’ll still be earlier than 99.9% of people.
And the stock market is near all time highs! Imagine what happens if we get another macro headwinds? Oh my God Tesla at $60? $75?
Xepa777
Banned
You should’ve been rattled over many earnings calls when describing 4689 as “hitting their targets”, “not the constraint on cybertrucks”, “have the luxury of treating parallel processes to scale” instead of sticking to the effing projections on battery day and how we’re guiding to them. Very slick statements that are technically true but hide obvious projection misses which are obvious with a 5 minute search on any of the YouTube videos from The Limiting Factor.
So damn obvious.
Xepa777
Banned
Drew underperformed and he’s prob not an Elon replacement candidate and feels a lot of pressure from competing battery tech and Elons demon mode. Easy to see politics there. Might not be worth it for him anymore.This rumor again.
I must admit, if this turns out to be true and the Model 2 is indeed "scrapped" then it could possibly also explain why Drew and Rohan left so abruptly. They might not agree with this course correction, just like how Franz and Lars didn't agree with it when they both talked Elon out of it years ago.
Of course I'm just theorycrafting here, none of us truly knows what's going on. Its possible Drew and Rohan really do just want to spend more time with their families, and its possible their simultaneous leaving is just a huge coincidence.
I'm not so sure though, there is a lot of FUD going on right now and a lot of it oddly converges neatly. Now with layoffs and higher ups leaving and things are really starting to get strange.
I hope Drew and Rohan did leave for family time only, I hope the Model 2 is still happening, I hope the layoffs are just the normal yearly Tesla workforce trimming.
I will admit though, I'm starting to get a bit worried. TSLA holders might be in for a rough ride over the next couple of years. Or we might get super filthy rich next year. Who the hell knows.
Rohan confused me. Maybe he made a play for more comp / influence which is why he’s so much more prominent recently when in past it was all Viecha. Maybe he just lost the game of thrones.
Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
"Nach mir, die Sintflut'Meanwhile, Model 2 will be built in Europe (likely at Giga Berlin), and most likely it will have a removable steering wheel and pedals. Robo taxis will wake up all at once with approval. How do Germans say "Après moi, le déluge"?
Other News in Germany are talking about 4000 Bus drivers that will retire in a short time. Due to bad working times and conditions coupled with weakening respect from their very own customers nobody is interested in such a bad payed job. The conditions for a disruptive alternative couldn't be better.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
Drew: LOL it's as simple as it has been described by Drew. After 18yrs he has decided to leave and enjoy his new life with company stock. He was hired into a very lean startup in 2006 and all we have to do is look to other engineers hired in the early days to see who has grown with the company and can lead. Probably one of Drew's other direct reports. Could Lars Moravy be "Acting CTO" for a while?
Rohan: there is a revolving door... people go back and forth between politican jobs and private sector jobs. Perhaps he got some political position somewhere.
MartinAustin
Active Member
RE: the layoffs... just my $0.02 Tesla has always been a lean company, always watching expenses. Up until the last 3yrs when they started accumulating money, they had to watch where every cent went and were always trying to strip parts out of their cars to reduce costs. The "Q1 layoffs" seem to be a yearly thing now, hasn't always been every year but we must not be surprised when they happen. Negative media will always ignore/never point out that there have been multiple layoffs in years gone by, they'll always try to characterise it as "an unexpected turn of events spurred by the terrible situation Tesla is now in" . The first layoffs I was aware of was June 2018. Layoffs are a way to make sure the staff you have on the payroll are the best, and the ones who, after [up to] a year being on the job have shown themselves to be less than optimal, can be filtered out. That's a terrible way to think about them, but hopefully having Tesla on their resume will help them find new positions quickly.
. The first layoffs I was aware of was June 2018. Layoffs are a way to make sure the staff you have on the payroll are the best, and the ones who, after [up to] a year being on the job have shown themselves to be less than optimal, can be filtered out. That's a terrible way to think about them, but hopefully having Tesla on their resume will help them find new positions quickly.
tweets incoming!!
Tesla makes tens of billions in profit without FSD, they have $30 billion cash to invest and grow that profit, almost no debt. They are in incredible shape and about to be the first to full automated driving. Not buying up every share you can afford at these prices is missing a once in a generation cinch. Im hoping selfishly the price goes lower over the next few months/years while I load up. If you can't handle this then Tesla is not an investment for you, it's. long term investment, think 10-20 years minimum.
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Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
And who reads 'MENTAL MATH'
Mods - can you check the thread tags again? elon is an ass
The admins for this site should disable tags or find a way to ensure anybody can't simply add any tag.
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Mod: thank you, this has been brought to the attention of the admins.
The admins for this site should disable tags or find a way to ensure anybody can't simply add any tag.
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Mod: thank you, this has been brought to the attention of the admins.
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My gut feeling as well.
Bullish me thinks Elon has been driving the cutting-edge version of FSD for years now, so has established a deep understanding of his quirks, and his probably impressed/content of the pace of improvement. Musk is really good at differential equations and thinks in "rates", so wants to get to real Full Self Driving faster. Then it's uncharted territory: we don't know how the future will play out (robotaxis? FSD sold at 20k to privates) but sure as hell it's better to be the first to have such a powerful tech.
Also bullish me thinks Drew deserves some rest, and Rohan carefully put himself under the spotlight on X in the last months to better his chances. He's a politician, after all. Being a foreigner I'm quite allergic to American rhetoric, and while I liked a more outspoken Tesla director it didn't sound completely sincere to me. But maybe I'm wrong, it's just a feeling.
And Elon is not betting the house, because the house is too big and GFs are selling almost 2 millions 2 and Y per year and Semi is ramping and also CT, so a new datacenter and robotaxis are not actually undermining the foundations of the company.
Bearish me sees Elon in "war-mode" for recessions and headwinds, and didn't like something about Drew and Rohan. Also, and this the most worrying, sees the Chinese competing too well about cost and the 25k car, and maybe the battery/energy game as well. So he pivots towards a position where he believes he has an advantage.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Jus' saying... the end is near (for some people's business / hobby)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Hahaha, I really thought Ford Motor would be the one that poaches Drew Baglino: (not Rivian)
cliff harris
Member
Far too many people still think its all/nothing robotaxi.
Even if FSD remains at 99.9% (insufficient for RT) reliability, then that still makes it BY FAR the best driver assistance the world has ever seen. When you are deciding on your next EV, who on earth would choose another brand, when there is one out there that will reduce the stress and tiredness of driving to practically zero.
If your car could be used totally autonomously, except in heavy snow, or ice, then its still not a robotaxi, and still doesnt mean you give up car ownership, but oh my god, its still going to be awesome for the other 99% of time.
People fret about the march of 9s, and sure, we cannot predict the timescale or hardware/training to go from 99.9% to 100% autonomy with any accuracy. But I really don't think thats a big deal. Tesla with 99.9% FSD will sell every vehicle, in every form factor it can possibly make, at a nice fat software-margins level profit.
FSD is currently a handful of north american cars. We haven't seen what it can do in Europe or China yet...
Even if FSD remains at 99.9% (insufficient for RT) reliability, then that still makes it BY FAR the best driver assistance the world has ever seen. When you are deciding on your next EV, who on earth would choose another brand, when there is one out there that will reduce the stress and tiredness of driving to practically zero.
If your car could be used totally autonomously, except in heavy snow, or ice, then its still not a robotaxi, and still doesnt mean you give up car ownership, but oh my god, its still going to be awesome for the other 99% of time.
People fret about the march of 9s, and sure, we cannot predict the timescale or hardware/training to go from 99.9% to 100% autonomy with any accuracy. But I really don't think thats a big deal. Tesla with 99.9% FSD will sell every vehicle, in every form factor it can possibly make, at a nice fat software-margins level profit.
FSD is currently a handful of north american cars. We haven't seen what it can do in Europe or China yet...
For me it would be one of many factors. The way I use and enjoy a driver assistance is on the highway and I suspect a lot of cars will have decent enough highway driver assistance. I am not sure I would even use a driver assistance when driving on small roads or in the city. The cost of it would also be an important factor. I don't drive that much on highways so I wouldn't place a large value on it. Overall quality, reliability, finish, support, service and brand would be other important factors.
But I guess we will soon know since the rate at 99 USD per month should show how the demand is.
Minimizing her role is really ridiculous, if nit mysoginistic. Anyway this thread is about Tesla investors not SpaceX ones, even though some of us hold both, despite the ‘private’ SpaceX status.
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