Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[geometro]

Tesla, unfortunately, has done little to counteract the mainstream narrative that EVs aren’t useful for the majority of people. Lowering prices only converts those that were open to EVs to begin with.
I think some continued education on EVs would increase the market segment. I’m old enough to remember when Elon was spending time on educating the broader market about the benefits, ease and also challenging the misconceptions about EVs.
Now it only seems to happen via word of mouth.

I switched over from BMW many years ago and still believe Teslas are better than anything being offered by BMW but I’m not sure how curious others are. Would be great if they had continued this education effort.

In theory, lower prices increase demand but in practice without the education it may not.

Earnings call hopefully will shed some light on the strategy going forward.

 

[Musskiah]

I don't know much and hear nothing about the Boring Company, but have they done anything at all in the last 3 years (maybe we need to wait 20 years, at least it's not a public company).

In short, the answer is yes

The Plan:

Vegas Loop — The Boring Company

www.boringcompany.com

It's slow going, but road construction is notoriously that way, especially subterranean Make no mistake, it's exciting progress being made in Las Vegas. This article makes clear these will be profound changes.

Vegas Loop begins boring operations for station near UNLV

The Boring Company broke ground on a new tunnel that will mark the Vegas Loop’s furthest expansion from the Las Vegas Convention Center campus.

www.reviewjournal.com

 

[Musskiah]

Elon Musk postpones India visit, says "very much look forward to visiting later this year"

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has postponed his visit to India, CNBC-TV18 reported on April 20 citing sources familiar with the development. The immediate reasons for the postponement are not known as yet

www.businesstoday.in

Trip to India delayed.

Prioritizing the Earnings Call. Making India sweat a bit longer. Well played Elon!

 

[jschwefel]

Has anyone else seen this - I haven’t seen it posted.



It comes close to my current sentiments.

That up to now, Tesla has had a “Master Plan” involving more Gigafactories, more models, Semi production and the like. Recently they seem to be “thrashing around” with lack of focus and erratic pricing and policies and layoffs. Not to mention the optics surrounding the battle over Musk’s compensation package, and his controversial political posts on X which have alienated a lot of potential buyers.

As such, I’m no longer buying more shares for the time being. Though not yet so discouraged as to begin selling. Still, if Black and I are feeling this way, no wonder the stock price is falling.

Note: I’m prepared for a torrent of thumbs down - I’ve been getting my fair share lately anyway.

Thanks for posting this. I stopped following Gary about a year ago and seeing him admit how wrong he was about Tesla, I’m glad I did.

 

[SOULPEDL]

... "What does FSD do that makes users disengage?" That's a different metric from just finding out the delta between what the human did and what FSD would have done.

This reminds me...

In proper Learning Evaluation, Level 1 (L1) is called the "smile sheet" which is quite similar to FSD user disengagements, constantly rating throughout the drive, but also masking L3 data (FSD independent skills learned). Meanwhile, everyone is trying to figure out L4 which is business level impact. L4 data has always been difficult in any field; this is no different.

L4 can also be non-financial impact such as maximizing battery utilization -> CO2 reduction, human safety, and a revenue stream to accelerate growth. For Tesla, it's a mix of things and not every company or stock thinks this way. This is the rub with Analysts, and the mistake IMO and is why I'd still buy the dip. SpaceX is the nearest example of a payoff as a byproduct of the mission where NASA is the baseline, followed by Boeing.

Tesla is not, and will never be, a Boeing.

 

[Thumper]

Trip postponement is Old news from this forum yesterday!

 

[wtlloyd]

Reducing the price on FSD should markedly increase uptake. This exposure will bring word of mouth. The uptake has been so low up to now, this will bring new awareness.
I believe many, even here, are missing the true purpose of the price cuts.
Once exposure has been increased, look for pricing to rachet back up. This is marketing not capitulation.

 

[2daMoon]

Reducing the price on FSD should markedly increase uptake. This exposure will bring word of mouth. The uptake has been so low up to now, this will bring new awareness.
I believe many, even here, are missing the true purpose of the price cuts.
Once exposure has been increased, look for pricing to rachet back up. This is marketing not capitulation.

That is another 3D aspect to the FSD trial and reduced pricing.

Remember how successful word of mouth has been for EVs?

Now, FSD will have its time in the sun as the stories of first-hand accounts spread at the speeds usually reserved for rumors.

 

[heltok]

This was a nice interview. Here another leading AI robotics company is tell what strategy they are using. You can interpret this how you want, but my interpretation is that they are validating Tesla's approach:

Wall Street wants answers from Musk on Tesla's affordable car - Autoblog

Elon Musk has kept investors hanging since a Reuters report that Tesla had scrapped plans for a $25,000 “Model 2” electric vehicle. Analysts called the situation "gut-wrenching," a "horror show," and a "self-inflicted" "debacle."

www.autoblog.com

If you are an investor you want Tesla to give away as little information as possible about their future plans to allow Tesla to execute as efficiently as possible with as little resistance as possible. What you want to get out these share holders meeting is where Tesla is and how capable they are at getting to a better place. Not the exact detailed strategy they intend to use.

If find lots of the Say questions to be like "Hi! Please give me feature x" or "Can you indulge my curiosity how you will solve y" etc. Wallstreet are asking questions like "Hi, we make money by scamming our clients, please make us look clever so we can scam more people". These questions will not increase the expected value of TSLA shares. If that was the actual goal the questions would be more like "Hi! You rock, everyone should invest in you! Please say something that will convince more people to buy TSLA".

 

[Iron]

Reducing the price on FSD should markedly increase uptake. This exposure will bring word of mouth. The uptake has been so low up to now, this will bring new awareness.
I believe many, even here, are missing the true purpose of the price cuts.
Once exposure has been increased, look for pricing to rachet back up. This is marketing not capitulation.

IMHO, the reason for the steep price cuts and the free month are dual purposed. Yes, they will gain an influx of subscribers but the main reason, is to flood the Dojo supercomputer with data. I expect that supervised FSD will be on another level soon (I won't say full FSD, that remains to be seen) and the price might go right back up.

I was saying this earlier, but the data is their big prize. I don't mind helping out, but we are all guinea pigs, so drive carefully or rather, watch carefully.

 

[Linkmeup]

This was a nice interview. Here another leading AI robotics company is tell what strategy they are using. You can interpret this how you want, but my interpretation is that they are validating Tesla's approach:

If you are an investor you want Tesla to give away as little information as possible about their future plans to allow Tesla to execute as efficiently as possible with as little resistance as possible. What you want to get out these share holders meeting is where Tesla is and how capable they are at getting to a better place. Not the exact detailed strategy they intend to use.

If find lots of the Say questions to be like "Hi! Please give me feature x" or "Can you indulge my curiosity how you will solve y" etc. Wallstreet are asking questions like "Hi, we make money by scamming our clients, please make us look clever so we can scam more people". These questions will not increase the expected value of TSLA shares. If that was the actual goal the questions would be more like "Hi! You rock, everyone should invest in you! Please say something that will convince more people to buy TSLA".

In growing markets, coopetition is paramount. In saturated markets, competition is paramount. EVs, Robotics, AI are all coopetitions where every player stands to benefit growing the entire TAM/pie IMO. I don't think keeping information away from the public in regards to robotics is going to help that market grow.

 

[Unpilot]

Trip postponement is Old news from this forum yesterday!

Not if you have an agenda...and that user definitely has a agenda.

 

[Christine69420]

View attachment 1040491
To be clear; of course FSD is now better than 2020, but this is what Musk said.

I suggest you study how Elon Musk and Tesla operate.

One famous Elon quote is “Failure is an option here. If things are not failing you are not innovating.”

Tesla and Elon innovate at high speed. Part of that is allowing for errors. If you later find that your approach was a mistake then you change your approach.

I have no particular insight in Tesla's FSD pricing logic - but I am certain FSD is developed like everything else. And changing approach and process is part of the game.

 

[GatorMeat]

The FSD Tracker site filters by states and disengagement frequency in states with less complex roadways (like AZ for example) is much closer to zero than the average. Tesla could geofence many areas here in Ohio where I drive daily and the frequency is near zero. No doubt Tesla sees these locations and may decide to fence them off for Robotaxis when it is time; they may simultaneously continue to operate supervised FSD in places where FSD needs further training.

Comparing Waymo to Tesla's FSD is like comparing bumper bowling to normal bowling. When the possibility of rolling gutter balls is removed entirely, ability is misrepresented. The handicap must be acknowledged for what it is. Furthermore, if the system is not allowed to make mistakes to find methods of failure, the system cannot learn. Tesla's approach maximizes failure rates (which are dropping) in order to maximize learning. The best approach is to fail fast and fail often to evolve quickly. Leaving the gutters exposed removes the false sense of security which prevents improvement.

Waymo has self driving robotaxis in multiple cities. Tesla has none. Who gives a rats ass how they accomplish it. Waymo can do it today, Tesla cannot.

 

[CitizenKane]

I suggest you study how Elon Musk and Tesla operate.

One famous Elon quote is “Failure is an option here. If things are not failing you are not innovating.”

Tesla and Elon innovate at high speed. Part of that is allowing for errors. If you later find that your approach was a mistake then you change your approach.

I have no particular insight in Tesla's FSD pricing logic - but I am certain FSD is developed like everything else. And changing approach and process is part of the game.

To me it seems TSLA is changing from being a rather predictable profit generator to a hope stock. Let's just hope the theme for the earnings call isn't "Just trust me, bro,"

 

[cliff harris]

Some thoughts on FSD price drop:

• Every step tesla take to get more FSD usage suggests they see value in larger FSD datasets, which means the moat between Tesla and everyone else is even larger
• Every step to bring on more usage suggests that Tesla has gone from compute constrained to compute abundance. Thats a MASSIVE change.
• The more people who have FSD, the less 'redundant' all that hardware that ships with every vehicle is. Without FSD a lot of that compute capability was wasted.

I know we all watch the earnings numbers and listen to the call like hawks, and I will this time too, but increasingly it feels like its all irrelevant. What really matters is the rate of FSD progress. FSD V12.3.5 is out now. Likely another 10 updates before the new 'autonomy day'.
It really is starting to feel like that FSD is solved for real this year. Even if only in the US, thats a massive deal. I'd also be very surprised if we don't have FSD in China, and maybe some other locations this year.

 

[cliff harris]

Waymo has self driving robotaxis in multiple cities. Tesla has none. Who gives a rats ass how they accomplish it. Waymo can do it today, Tesla cannot.

As investors, we give a rats ass if its profitable. Rivian sold pickup truck EVs before Tesla. Have they made a profit yet? (spoiler: no, they lose $43,000 for every one sold).
I'm sure that with an entire hardware store's worth of sensors strapped to every corner of a waymo vehicle, and 24/7 humans watching every single trip, waymo can achieve great things in the mind of people who never ask questions.
Its all a ridiculous show for gullible investors.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Waymo has self driving robotaxis in multiple cities. Tesla has none. Who gives a rats ass how they accomplish it. Waymo can do it today, Tesla cannot. chose not to - for the biggest prize, in fastest way possible.

FIFY, who says they "cannot"?
Goodbye #5...

 

[InTheMiddle]

Yep…once again, the only people with range anxiety are the people that don’t own a Tesla. Old habits are hard to break.

Please, one should not disregard others' concerns simply because they are not yours.

I have owned Teslas since 2017, and while range is not an issue for my day-to-day uses, it is most certainly an issue for some of my once-a-month-or-so uses. With a nod to the moderators, I won't re-ignite the endless discussions of why more SuperChargers are desperately needed and will be for the foreseeable future, or the endless discussions of why I would immediately upgrade to a 500mi version and perhaps enough others would as well to justify production, etc.

Instead, I would simply ask everyone to consider that when someone conveys a concern of theirs that is not a concern for us, perhaps the other person is horribly mis-informed. But also, perhaps, just maybe, the other person actually has a concern that is valid for them, and one shouldn't just be dismissive of it out of hand.

 

[Electroman]

"when autonomy is finally solved, then ..."

That is the favorite phrase of many TMCers and Tesla bulls.