About robotaxis, I've wanted to comment on this opportunity for Tesla, though I'm not particularly
qualified to opine on this compared to others here who have really thought about it all more,
from 'nativewolf' to 'discoducky'. I will express my personal biases below, but first...
... I see a lot of "napkin math" about FSD take rates, COGS for robotaxis themselves, attempts
to quantify huge opportunity if drivers are not in the loop, the Tesla Network percentage take in these
situations, etc.
However, since much of it is about the disintermediation of Uber, I think "top-down" napkin math
regarding such seems just as valuable as the "bottom-up" analysis of what Tesla could realize
if the market was unlimited.
I submit that the ride hailing market is not unlimited. Uber has 70%+ share in the US and 25%
ROW (rest-of-world). Their market cap is ~$150B right now, with a forward P/E of ~35.
Google search, and a Musk comment, shows that they take about 1/2 the fare.
If this disappeared in a puff of smoke (or by Tesla's [and no other's] magic wand), what would
the market cap for the TAM (total addressable market) become, say double, or triple? Same
order-of-magnitude as TSLA's market cap now, but not trillions.
Would 1/2 fare make for many extra Uber/Waymo/Tesla Network rides in seemingly saturated areas such
as my home town San Francisco, or NYC?
Now, here is my personal bias. I own a HW3-equipped, FSD-enabled Tesla as an apartment dweller in SF.
We don't even have 110V plug in the (fortunately covered) parking space in an old building not
proactively serviced, so it is Supercharged only, but that's OK! I'm retired, so don't commute, don't
have much in the way of urgent appointments, etc. So, having *never* needed to take an Uber,
do I drive the Tesla to most places in town? No! Like Manhattan, this is a walking town where there is
decent public transportation, so I'm taking the BART subway and Muni buses all the time to fill in the gaps.
For cost alone public transit beats even 1/2 a taxi fare.
That said, the Tesla is great to drive to family in the suburbs, go out-of-town to the redwoods,
the beaches and the mountains, to LA or to Oregon wine country or solar eclipses or wherever!
And the Level 2 is increasingly stress-reducing even on city streets here with v12.
So, I'm like the 50% of Manhattan dwellers who "don't need a car" for tooling around town, but
own one anyway to make a proper escape. I don't think robotaxis can supplant cars for these
purposes, though I might be just plain weird for choosing public over private transport for
local efficiency.