Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
View attachment 1042795
It’s doing well.
Yump.
Closed: Apr 29, 6:01 a.m. EDT
Pre-market 181.07 +12.78
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View attachment 1042795
It’s doing well.
Unless it was a deal something like "You must continue to use Baidu's maps and not start using Google's or another company for FSD roll out"
China's major internet search company, reached an agreement with Tesla (TSLA.O) to grant the car company access to its mapping license for data collection on China's public roads, two people familiar with the matter said. The deal clears a final regulatory hurdle for Tesla's driver assistance system, which Tesla calls Full Self Driving (FSD), to be offered in China, the sources said.
I'm betting all the US Senators who are calling for limits on FSD and investigations into Autopilot will switch over to prohibiting Tesla's release of FSD in China in the near future due to "national security" reasons.Baidu replaced Navinfo, another Chinese co partly owned by Tencent back in 2020. Google was never in the picture. I think legacy media is spreading what they thought was FUD (Tesla dependent on Baidu.. blah blah), but it is gloriously backfiring on them .
Edit: Ironically, Reuters has provided a clearer picture of what is going on. So Tesla is hitching a ride on Baidu's mapping license which is apparently a pre-requiste for launching FSD in China.
Let's work from facts...
FACTS (from Cern, which I posted previously):
View attachment 1042541
Teslas TOTAL REVENUE, which Cern calls INDICATIVE REVENUE(TR=IR=Reported Revenue + change in Deferred Revenue & Unsatisfied Performance Obligations) was nearly $10B in 2023 (with Lathrop MF ramped at half mast [20GWh] for only a few months of the year) and the difference in unreported revenue is nearly $4B!
FACT: Lathrop MF will double in output to 40GWh, and unreported revenue will grow to $8-10B within 18 months (mid 2025) from this single MF
FACT: Lingang MF will ramp to 20GWh through 2025 and likely 40 GWh into 2027, as it does unreported revenue will balloon to ~$20B+ and beyond.
FACT: over the next 12 months, Tesla has told us they will recognize $1B of this Unreported Revenue (UR) in 2024
ASSUMPTIONS: The recognition of...
2025: ~$3-4B from ~$8-10B UR
2026: ~$5-6B from ~$12-15B UR
2027: ~$8-10B from $20B+ UR
2028: ~$10B++++
This recognition of revenue is pure profit realized by Tesla Energy in a given year no matter what you "advise people" @Zaddy Daddy this money WILL drop to the bottom line in a given year, and this profit WILL be multipled by profit growth (which is how it is customary to find an ideal PE from the PEG ratio =1), which is what I said in the post you responded to.
I'm not going to respond to your long post point by point. Maybe someone else wants to take the time to pick it apart. I don't.
You need to check their stock portfolio first to see if they own TSLA. They give Wall Street a run for their money *cough* trading on material non-public information *cough*I'm betting all the US Senators who are calling for limits on FSD and investigations into Autopilot will switch over to prohibiting Tesla's release of FSD in China in the near future due to "national security" reasons.
I wonder if cancelling the trip to India (reason: "Too much to do for Tesla at home" IIRC) in reality had more to do with China...
My guesses:
- Either FSD in China seemed like a higher priority to Elon
- or as China likely wouldn´t like Tesla setting up production in India, they used that as a negotiating tactic?
I assume the FSD architecture would be designed to enable quick fine-tuning for different markets, something similar to LoRA (Low Rank Adaptation) for LLMs (see https://www.datacamp.com/tutorial/m...arge-language-models-for-efficient-adaptation), where you freeze the foundation model's weights during fine-tuning and only change the much smaller # of weights of the adaptation layers, which would make it much faster to train.It's still unclear to me how Tesla will train FSD for the Chinese market.
In theory, advanced GPUs can not be exported to China. And, Tesla is not allowed to ship its video data from China to the US.
At some point, data and GPUs must be co-located to do the training.
It’s far more than that. On the surface, sure, partly true. However just consider Robin Li. He and Elon are allegedly very friendly with each other. Then think about this connection:Baidu replaced Navinfo, another Chinese co partly owned by Tencent back in 2020. Google was never in the picture. I think legacy media is spreading what they thought was FUD (Tesla dependent on Baidu.. blah blah), but it is gloriously backfiring on them .
Edit: Ironically, Reuters has provided a clearer picture of what is going on. So Tesla is hitching a ride on Baidu's mapping license which is apparently a pre-requiste for launching FSD in China.
Yea, what they said on the conference call did imply that might be the approach Tesla will take. I'm not sure if the result will be good enough. Guess we will have to wait and see.I assume the FSD architecture would be designed to enable quick fine-tuning for different markets, something similar to LoRA (Low Rank Adaptation) for LLMs (see https://www.datacamp.com/tutorial/m...arge-language-models-for-efficient-adaptation), where you freeze the foundation model's weights during fine-tuning and only change the much smaller # of weights of the adaptation layers, which would make it much faster to train.
I don't think the agreement allows the export of collected data, at least that's not mentioned in the article.Tesla passes Chinese data security test that bodes well for self-driving push
The US carmaker has passed a test of its compliance with Beijing’s data security rules thanks to a watershed decision it says could pave the way for the removal of some restrictions on the use of its cars in mainland China.www.scmp.com
All of this simply ‘blows my mind’. This is a huge set of developments that do show official Chinese support for Tesla regardless of national tensions between US and China. It is no accident that in some local reports he has been recently described as ‘South African’. The Agreement allows export of vehicle operations data, including that of interior cameras, to be used to improve FSD. With Baidu struggling to improve it’s own Robotaxi operations, there are obvious mutual interests. There are many more details, including official support fir the new to-be-built Megapack factory.
Tesla had better be on high vigilance re IP protection.I don't think the agreement allows the export of collected data, at least that's not mentioned in the article.
And I doubt the Chinese government would support FSD for free given the current geopolitical situation, I think Tesla would have to offer something in return, my guess is the data collected would be shared with Baidu.
I’m happy to disagree, and you should be happy too.It's still unclear to me how Tesla will train FSD for the Chinese market.
In theory, advanced GPUs can not be exported to China. And, Tesla is not allowed to ship its video data from China to the US.
At some point, data and GPUs must be co-located to do the training.