Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Is rear steering needed on the Y? Is it worth the extra cost? It may have it, but the rear steering is not as pronounced. Agreed on the steer by wire, which means a 48V architecture.
Your post sparked another idea in my head. What IF rear steering was being implemented for the robotaxi? It would benefit a lot from this feature to fulfill its intended purpose much better than 'regular' MY/M3.

Just a thought.
 
So we had a big jump in $TSLA yesterday without any clear explanation. There was some positive news, but I've seen plenty of down days on news like we had.

So why the jump?

I thought of a possible explanation that went under the radar. Besides some new semi info and decent China numbers, the other thing that happened in the last couple of days is that FSD 12.4 went out to employees. Employees can buy stock. Employees can show their friends who buy stock. If the right person/people are impressed enough, they might decide to buy stock on the strength of 12.4.

Maybe FSD 12.4 is just that good.
4% down at this moment, explanation, please?
 
...Imagine if 120 million shares were to be bought in 1 day , it will be the most epic squeeze the likes of which no one has ever seen...
It may seem so, but a significant number of shares can be traded on the close (market on close or limit on close)

Here's a data point:
1000008693.jpg

666M shares were traded with a high low range of 22 (10% fluctuation). From open to close the difference was $9 (a 4% change)

Overall the price movement in this large volume day was anything but epic.
 
Your post sparked another idea in my head. What IF rear steering was being implemented for the robotaxi? It would benefit a lot from this feature to fulfill its intended purpose much better than 'regular' MY/M3.

Just a thought.
Guarantee a couple of hundred thousand units from a Tier 1 supplier, they may drop the unit price low enough to make it possible.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: SpaceCash
It may seem so, but a significant number of shares can be traded on the close (market on close or limit on close)

Here's a data point:
View attachment 1049621
666M shares were traded with a high low range of 22 (10% fluctuation). From open to close the difference was $9 (a 4% change)

Overall the price movement in this large volume day was anything but epic.

The day TSLA was included in the S&P 500. Are you aware of another such event that would warrant that amount of buying?

Which reminds me...since that inclusion closing price:
-TSLA: -22.3%
-SPY: +43.1%
-QQQ: + 46.5%
 
  • Informative
Reactions: 2Pearls
Its kinda cool that 'there is a disengagement every 200 miles' is seen as a criticism right now. Thats...pretty impressive. As I've said before, you dont need actual robotaxi reliability to see a HUGE boost to the company. Who in the world would use any other car than a tesla for working as an uber driver, when you are probably only having to touch the pedals or steering wheel 1 or 2 times a day? Insane to do ride hailing in a 'dumb' car.

Who would buy any other car if they drive long distances? one engagement every 200 miles versus constantly hands on wheel and feet on pedals. Sometimes even (shudder) changing gears!

I agree with the sentiment that we might see a Tesla ride hailing service with safety drivers in the short term. Not a bad idea. And even if it was revenue-neutral, it means a constant parade of passengers getting to talk to a safety driver who explains how the Tesla is doing 99% of the work. Oh and BTW you can buy one for yourself...

If I was Elon:
  • I'd be setting up a trial of a Tesla ride hailing service in a US city, with safety drivers, ASAP.
  • I'd be aggressively lobbying existing Uber/Lyft/Taxi drivers to get them to try a model 3/Y.
 
Funny enough, there's plenty of circus acts in this thread nowadays.

Let's look at the last few days, we have:

  • Someone focused on short interest when the "days to cover" is literally one. One day. lolz
  • Dismissing the idea of Musk leaving when he himself literally is tweeting thinly veiled threats of doing so.
  • The idea that robotaxi level FSD is coming this year when it is 100x - 1000x away in reliability.
  • The idea this stock with massive volume just went up 6% yesterday because some employees bought shares
  • The usual dismissal and excuses of demand problems in front of obvious counter-evidence
  • Lowlighting / ignoring the recent failures liek 4680 DBE capabilities.
  • Claims that riding motorcycles are safer than riding bicycles

You see, people like me, we are interested in investing in the stock but only if it makes sense to us. So yeah, I would like to get into real detail understanding, for instance:

  • Real potential limitations to FSD progress and realistic timelines
  • State of 4680 production
  • Actual ramp and margins of Megapacks
  • Actual state of demand for Tesla vehicles wrt to prices and margins
  • Projected growth of vehicles over next few years.

But in the midst of some real discussion on these topics, there's also ad hominem insults, and then people glossing over each issue, like

  • FSD? "we're real close"
  • 4680? "They said yields are improving and cost competitive this year!"
  • Megapack: "Dude margins are going to be 40% and ramping 150% each year"
  • Demand: "Demand is infinite!"
  • "Musk said 3 million on current lines, see 50% growth in a year!"
These all have factual issues and don't help dig down further.

Why do I want to dig down further? Because I want to know how much money is Tesla going to make.

If I have a realistic idea of how much money they are going to make, then I can be a better investor.
I appreciate (and agree with) so much of this perspective.

Although "days to cover" may be importantly predictive of a short squeeze (I have used my understanding of this to my advantage dozens of times when trading [not investing in] stocks such as GME and FUV to name just two of many), but it is certainly not the only consideration when it comes to short interest. People have the right, of course, to deny any existence or significance to the obviously high short interest that TSLA continues to experince. I was simply presenting irrefutable data. Do with it as you wish. I'm not going to continue to belabor this .
 
  • Informative
Reactions: EVCollies
So we had a big jump in $TSLA yesterday without any clear explanation. There was some positive news, but I've seen plenty of down days on news like we had.

So why the jump?

I thought of a possible explanation that went under the radar. Besides some new semi info and decent China numbers, the other thing that happened in the last couple of days is that FSD 12.4 went out to employees. Employees can buy stock. Employees can show their friends who buy stock. If the right person/people are impressed enough, they might decide to buy stock on the strength of 12.4.

Maybe FSD 12.4 is just that good.
Normal minor 5 to 10% increase every two weeks or so, and gradual walk down. Very predictable pattern. Nothing to see, continued car production, continued sales and delivery, continued R&D on current and upcoming models, ongoing fsd video and training using nvidia chips, nope, nothing really important here.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UkNorthampton
Normal minor 5 to 10% increase every two weeks or so, and gradual walk down. Very predictable pattern. Nothing to see, continued car production, continued sales and delivery, continued R&D on current and upcoming models, ongoing fsd video and training using nvidia chips, nope, nothing really important here.
+ ongoing several GIGA expansions and many things we don't know about until we do.
 
Very simple: if you think the "most shorted stock" label is actionable, try to predict daily or weekly, your choice, price action based on that info. Maybe put some money in calls / puts based on your read. Then we'll see how actionable it is. It's easy to sound smart with short interest this, % float that, but at the end of the day, what can you do with that info?
The only way shorting is actionable is if doing a naked short while not a market-maker, were someone able to do so. Otherwise shorting is quite legal, so long as the shorter has borrowed the shares.
Calls and Puts are also legal, not actionable.

What do you think is illegal about any of that?
unwise?, perhaps. money maker?, perhaps.

But actionable? No. Some might try to prosecute but they'd lose the case, and probably would be summarily tossed out when entering the action formally.
 
Doesn't look like rears steer. Might be using differential braking though.
View attachment 1049609

In the twitter thread someone who acts like she works at Giga Berlin (where this was filmed) says this is just a regular Y used to drive people around, which has been colored just for fun. Seems legit to me. Tobi Lindh who took the video says it appears to be a tight turning radius due to lens compression, but the area is in fact wide enough for a regular car to turn.
 
The only way shorting is actionable is if doing a naked short while not a market-maker, were someone able to do so. Otherwise shorting is quite legal, so long as the shorter has borrowed the shares.
Calls and Puts are also legal, not actionable.

What do you think is illegal about any of that?
unwise?, perhaps. money maker?, perhaps.

But actionable? No. Some might try to prosecute but they'd lose the case, and probably would be summarily tossed out when entering the action formally.
He (dl003) is using a different definition of "actionable". He means "tradeable", not "illegal".
 
Tesla has lowered the prices of 3 and Y in Norway with up to $6,000 today, Wednesday.

Translated parts from the article:

Tesla is cutting the prices of its most popular models by up to NOK 60,500. Used car dealers are expecting a price war: - It's starting to look like a bloodbath.
- This is probably just the beginning. When the Chinese electric cars really hit Europe next year, then the actual price war will probably begin, says the used car dealer, and points to BYD as a prominent player.
He is supported by Jonathan Parr, co-founder and head of growth at the online used car dealer Rebil.

- I agree. There is fierce competition from Asia, and many of the Asian manufacturers are trying to gain a foothold in Europe. That it is price that applies is quite clear, says Parr to E24.
Amundsen in Marcusbil does not believe that today's price cut from Tesla has been provoked by the Chinese electric car manufacturers.

- We see that Tesla will keep sales up in the same way as they produce. Everything they produce must be sold and they use different strategies to succeed, says Amundsen.

He points out that Tesla also offers aggressive interest rate campaigns in other markets, often in combination with price cuts.
- Has power

Parr in Rebil thinks the same.

- It is expected. Tesla uses the opportunity to change the price in a way that we have not seen before. They do this to utilize their production capacity, says Parr.

He adds that Tesla has had slightly weaker sales, and that the electric car manufacturer has adjusted prices several times - both up and down - in the past year.

- It affects other people's prices. Tesla has power in the market. It affects the new car price directly, while the used market adjusts a bit, while there is a slight difference in how quickly those adjustments are, and how similar and comparable the cars are, says the used car dealer.


PricesWed.png


Source: Massive priskutt fra Tesla: – Dette er nok bare begynnelsen
 
I appreciate (and agree with) so much of this perspective.

Although "days to cover" may be importantly predictive of a short squeeze (I have used my understanding of this to my advantage dozens of times when trading [not investing in] stocks such as GME and FUV to name just two of many), but it is certainly not the only consideration when it comes to short interest. People have the right, of course, to deny any existence or significance to the obviously high short interest that TSLA continues to experince. I was simply presenting irrefutable data. Do with it as you wish. I'm not going to continue to belabor this .

It'd be nice if you guys can just take care of your short argument in DM or a room instead.

It's really not a big deal at this point for Tesla. It's $20 billion, big woopy doo. For larger companies, it's normal to have large $$ amount of stock shorted simply because the companies are just that big/there is a lot of stock out there to short.

DJT, heavily shorted has like a small $ amount shorted, but if you try to buy say, puts or something, the cost is literally insane and if you see the shares shorted, it's like 84%. Meaning that near every share in existence, someone is using it to short. Tesla, 3%, pulleeezze, who cares?

If you pull up short amount of MSFT, GOOG, NVDA or anything else big, they all have like ~$20 Billions in short positions ALL the time. It's nothing to really point to IMO and a waste of board messages. It's nothing important RIGHT NOW until it starts climbing a ton more in terms of % of float.

Side edit, way to give Musk whatever he wants and shut all doubters up, pull a NVDA in a quarter, up $37+ now after hours (I tend to not care for after hours action), but:
"
Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $6.12 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.52 better than the FactSet Consensus of $5.60; revenues rose 262.1% year/year to $26.04 bln vs the $24.59 bln FactSet Consensus.Data Center: Revenue was a record $22.6 billion, up 23% from the previous quarter and up 427% from a year ago.
.
.
.
For the full year, gross margins are expected to be in the mid-70% range...
"

Look at that growth. Again, no growth = dead for any "growth" stock normally. They need FSD and they need it now.
 
Last edited: