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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Public transport isn't exactly any better...
I'm guessing there will be different types of robotaxi, and if you want more space for yourself you'll probably have to pay more.
It's most likely for the unboxed RT going into production late next year. The economy models Elon said which will be made on the 3 & Y lines wouldn't use new presses, they'd likely use equipment on the 3 & Y lines.
FastEddieB
Member
I was thinking along those lines.
“Crab walking” could be useful for getting into tight “parallel parking” situations. Similarly, a vehicle capable of rotating about its vertical axis could prove invaluable for a robotaxi that found itself unable to go forward but didn’t have space to turn around conventionally.
Would require creative engineering, but starting with a clean sheet of paper? Who knows?
I think people were more willing to put up with him running several companies when he was actually delivering results at Tesla and was not damaging the Tesla brand with his politics/culture war nonsense.
The fact is that Tesla has been performing poorly, even after Elon had the nerve to claim that demand still outpaced production (you know, when growth started slowing and then turned negative)... He needs to refocus and deliver results. We know he's capable of doing so, but then he needs to pull back from Twitter.
You fail to mention that hedge funds had ample time to front run this S&P inclusion and buy shares ahead of time .
It lead to the share price appreciating from 380 to 694 at the time of inclusion into S&P
I remember it as I made gobs of money in options during that event
Even then they were short of few million shares which lead to further upward pressure on the share price into 800s over the next 4 weeks
The 666 million shares traded at closing cross were just changing hands at that point
All the sales have been done in the preceeding few weeks
This proves my point
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Tesla and X.AI called out as a big spender on NVDA chips.
I wonder how much it weighs to require that truck arrangement. Incredibly dense little package.
Just received a phone call about the vote, and they offered to cast the vote over the phone. First I thought it was a scam, but she had all my details such as # of shares and what account they belonged to with just my house number. I told her I already voted via email from vanguard but she didn't have any record of them coming through on her end.
GhostSkater
Member
Anyone wish they had moved everything to Nvidia for a while and then rotated back here? I know, easy to say now in hindsight
I moved half of what we sold and my kids moved all of what they sold. Needless to say we are pretty happy about it.
philw1776
Member
My stock investment history is full of wishes. Wouda, couda, shouda.
Mutual funds have been very good to me and are the core of my estate, but they never bought me a "free" car and left me with a 7 figure gain.
NVDA is like the alter-ego to current day TSLA, it really is more like 2020 TSLA.
But actually its better than that. Just constant, insane earnings growth, with no end in sight, AND the valuation never ended up bonky. NVDA at $1000 is like a forward PE ratio of 30, it's not that crazy. TSLA forward PE ratio in 2021 was 100 lolol.
I mean personally, going all in on TSLA in 2018-2019 when I did is totally different from current day. I haven't been all in in TSLA for a about a year, when it started becoming clear earnings were going to keep declining. Sorry that's not an area I choose to go all in on a stock.
Lot's of people here suffer from survivorship bias, we made a bunch of money previously on one stock so we think that's the best way to invest the next time (and we're confident!).
For me, the best way is to study a handful of companies (as many as I can) and invest across those that all have the potential to 2x-3x their returns. Then I can be patient and move money around when things get out of whack for some of the stocks.
For instance, at current price, maybe in best case TSLA could 2x or 3x in the next year, but there are many other stocks with the same "best case" so spread out the investment.
If TSLA dropped to $100 then I would move heavily into it as the best case returns would go to 3x to 6x.
Nvidia, as awesome as their earnings go, has a TAM problem. Tesla, as crappy as their earnings go, has no TAM problem. This is the reason for the disparity of the two.
Spacep0d
Active Member
Trucks are far safer for their occupants than motorcycles are for their riders.
In hindsight sure, I would have loved to have sold all of my TSLA at $415/shr on Nov 5th 2021 and gone all in on NVDA for $297/shr. TSLA is down $230/shr since then while NVDA is up $700/shr.
I don't have a crystal ball though. I had no idea the AI boom was going to pump Nvidia up like it has, and I had no idea Tesla would cut margins like they had, nor did I think the Fed would keep rates up high for so long like they have. I didn't think Elon would buy Twitter, I didn't think one judge in Delaware would take Elon's compensation plan away causing this vote to be happening now. Hindsight is always 20/20 when it comes to investing.
However, looking forward at both companies is interesting. At some point the demand for AI compute will dwindle once enough compute has been built, or some actual chip competition will present itself forcing them to lower margins. When that happens Nvidia will pull back, as the majority of the stocks rise is based on this one thing. Tesla is still increasing auto production, megapack production is scaling, Robotaxis are about two years out from start of production and probable deployment, and oh yeah Optimus is being developed at a very rapid pace. I mean humanoids are only going to be the single most impactful invention of the past few centuries, no big deal.
TSLA is looking weak right now and in all honesty its well deserved, but its extremely probable to be temporary as tons of great things (very profitable things!) are coming for Tesla, and in time the current auto doldrums will look like a speed bump along the way. Where will Nvidia be ten years from now? Probably still doing very well, but they aren't building robotaxi fleets nor solving autonomy, nor are they building humanoids or even building energy storage.
NVDA is the hot stock right now but TSLA has super sunny days ahead of it, despite looking a bit gloomy today. Long term investing in solid growth companies is almost always a roller coaster, yet staying on for the ride nearly always pays off long term.
TSLA will be fine down the road even if some other stocks might have been better investments over that same time period. Many different choices can look better in hindsight, but looking forward many years from today I'm pretty confident TSLA will have performed well for me.
In hindsight sure, I would have loved to have sold all of my TSLA at $415/shr on Nov 5th 2021 and gone all in on NVDA for $297/shr. TSLA is down $230/shr since then while NVDA is up $700/shr.
I don't have a crystal ball though. I had no idea the AI boom was going to pump Nvidia up like it has, and I had no idea Tesla would cut margins like they had, nor did I think the Fed would keep rates up high for so long like they have. I didn't think Elon would buy Twitter, I didn't think one judge in Delaware would take Elon's compensation plan away causing this vote to be happening now. Hindsight is always 20/20 when it comes to investing.
However, looking forward at both companies is interesting. At some point the demand for AI compute will dwindle once enough compute has been built, or some actual chip competition will present itself forcing them to lower margins. When that happens Nvidia will pull back, as the majority of the stocks rise is based on this one thing. Tesla is still increasing auto production, megapack production is scaling, Robotaxis are about two years out from start of production and probable deployment, and oh yeah Optimus is being developed at a very rapid pace. I mean humanoids are only going to be the single most impactful invention of the past few centuries, no big deal.
TSLA is looking weak right now and in all honesty its well deserved, but its extremely probable to be temporary as tons of great things (very profitable things!) are coming for Tesla, and in time the current auto doldrums will look like a speed bump along the way. Where will Nvidia be ten years from now? Probably still doing very well, but they aren't building robotaxi fleets nor solving autonomy, nor are they building humanoids or even building energy storage.
NVDA is the hot stock right now but TSLA has super sunny days ahead of it, despite looking a bit gloomy today. Long term investing in solid growth companies is almost always a roller coaster, yet staying on for the ride nearly always pays off long term.
TSLA will be fine down the road even if some other stocks might have been better investments over that same time period. Many different choices can look better in hindsight, but looking forward many years from today I'm pretty confident TSLA will have performed well for me.
I wonder if NVDA permabulls go around thinking "GPU compute demand is infinite".
Interesting. What if there is no concept of 'front' or 'back' on these Robotaxis? You just need steering capability on both axles, but it would never need to do the dreaded 3 point turn... it would just slow down to a stop, steer over to the other lane with all 4 wheels, then accelerate away in the opposite direction. The passengers could bother to turn or not, at their whim.
'Front' and 'back' are there because of the anatomy of the human head and eyes... we want to leave such limits behind.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
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