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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Being the most shorted isn't at all significant, got it
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I heard a rumor that Elon did fire himself, then hired him right back, since the idiot works for free, and the company couldn't survive without him
According to his own words he'd like that. He doesn’t want to be CEO.
This chart encapsulates my entire holding period in TSLA
during which, TSLA has always been the one of the most shorted stocks. Does it go straight down? Does it go straight up? Is it lower than 2019? Is it at ATH? No. In short, there is nothing actionable about the simple fact of being the one of the most shorted stocks.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Some are wealthy. And some have wealthy friends. Some may even have friends who are fund managers.
Employees have nowhere near the volume needed to move the market of such a highly liquid stock.
Just a possibility.
It has only gone to a small % of employees. So really unlikely.
The OP said that it's likely lens distortion as that area is actually really wide.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Of course there cannot possibly be sufficient data to "prove" this prediction. Certainly just a theory at this time until we have thousands on the road. You'll see...
The first data point I have seen stating that Tesla Semi "achieved better than 95%" is quite encouraging.
I can't find any diesel specific data. I can find fleet data for "trucks" that puts fueling at 3%, washing at 0.6%, and preventative maintainance at 1.35%. I can also find data that says "on average semi trucks break down (unscheduled maintainance/reapirs) every 10k miles." So I think it's safe to assume total downtime is at least 5%. Perhaps someone else (who doesn't have a handle that rhymes with "NarcandNormi" or "Lightglade") has more insight?
You can see below Tesla Semi (top right) crushes the EV competition when in comes to charging speed
It should take the same amount of time to clean a Tesla Semi as a diesel semi, so that's a "wash"(da-dum-ch)
I have heard cracked windshields are perhaps the most common reason for semis to be taken down, and certainly Tesla is aware of this and likely has improved on this substantially.
It seems obvious that maintainance shouldn't be more for an EV of almost any type over an ICE in the same class.
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Funny enough, there's plenty of circus acts in this thread nowadays.
Let's look at the last few days, we have:
- Someone focused on short interest when the "days to cover" is literally one. One day. lolz
- Dismissing the idea of Musk leaving when he himself literally is tweeting thinly veiled threats of doing so.
- The idea that robotaxi level FSD is coming this year when it is 100x - 1000x away in reliability.
- The idea this stock with massive volume just went up 6% yesterday because some employees bought shares
- The usual dismissal and excuses of demand problems in front of obvious counter-evidence
- Lowlighting / ignoring the recent failures liek 4680 DBE capabilities.
- Claims that riding motorcycles are safer than riding bicycles
You see, people like me, we are interested in investing in the stock but only if it makes sense to us. So yeah, I would like to get into real detail understanding, for instance:
- Real potential limitations to FSD progress and realistic timelines
- State of 4680 production
- Actual ramp and margins of Megapacks
- Actual state of demand for Tesla vehicles wrt to prices and margins
- Projected growth of vehicles over next few years.
But in the midst of some real discussion on these topics, there's also ad hominem insults, and then people glossing over each issue, like
- FSD? "we're real close"
- 4680? "They said yields are improving and cost competitive this year!"
- Megapack: "Dude margins are going to be 40% and ramping 150% each year"
- Demand: "Demand is infinite!"
- "Musk said 3 million on current lines, see 50% growth in a year!"
Why do I want to dig down further? Because I want to know how much money is Tesla going to make.
If I have a realistic idea of how much money they are going to make, then I can be a better investor.
Stopped at the Superchargers at Turning Stone Casino in Verona NY yesterday. They have a lot for picking up new vehicles until they build a showroom. I counted 13 Cybertrucks in the lot. I asked if I could test drive one but they are all sold. I looked at one of the stickers and the price was $101K.
They told me the new showroom would open next year in Canastota.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Here's the post I quoted.
It was last night's update. There hadn't been this quantity of consecutive days of 60% short selling reflected in that chart back on May 1.
The link to the thread itself will take a clickee to the beginning of the most recent page, with the first post on April 30.
Then, scroll to the bottom to find the most recent post.
Edit: Thanks to @Musskiah for clearing this up already.
Robotaxi level FSD this year is pretty likely. Of course, it depends on how you define "robotaxi level". But you might just turn out to be the circus clown.
This is not what I said. I said, "I thought of a possible explanation that went under the radar....Employees can buy stock. Employees can show their friends who buy stock. If the right person/people are impressed enough, they might decide to buy stock on the strength of 12.4."
I offered it as a possible explanation for the pop yesterday. I never said it was likely, only possible. I have yet to see any likely explanation at all.
I think this is the biggest disagreement from the investor forum and the FSD forum.
As I said previously, the progress of 12.4 will tell us the rate of progress. Not Omar's videos, but daily, real usage.
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