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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I have no doubt about that. If he wasn't the CEO and majority shareholder.... which he is, so he gave himself some slack.
But there should be no doubt that the problem has been Twitter: Musk accomplished what he did while being the CEO of SpaceX, and then BoringCo and Neuralink and for a time very active in OpenAI. He always said that he gave 1% of his time to Neuralink and 1% to BoringCo, and there were never issues.
SpaceX is more problematic, but he definitely proved the world he could do both for years. Meanwhile, he has brought both SpaceX and Tesla where they are today. So, mission accomplished.

The problem, again, was Twitter, and in general his political involvement. After 2020 things were never the same, something changed for him. Twitter was (still is?) a major distraction, the reason he had to sell so many shares, the reason he got so much pushback. It was a political move and the public and the media responded politically. Right or wrong, it was different from the past.

I'm sure 99% of shareholders would be content with part-time Musk, divided between Tesla and SpaceX, and even keeping his other pet-projects, BUT Twitter.
I heard a rumor that Elon did fire himself, then hired him right back, since the idiot works for free, and the company couldn't survive without him
 
Being the most shorted isn't at all significant, got it
This chart encapsulates my entire holding period in TSLA
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during which, TSLA has always been the one of the most shorted stocks. Does it go straight down? Does it go straight up? Is it lower than 2019? Is it at ATH? No. In short, there is nothing actionable about the simple fact of being the one of the most shorted stocks.
 
Do you have a source for "industry-leading uptime?"
Of course there cannot possibly be sufficient data to "prove" this prediction. Certainly just a theory at this time until we have thousands on the road. You'll see...

The first data point I have seen stating that Tesla Semi "achieved better than 95%" is quite encouraging.

How does 95% compare to diesel semis? I searched a bit and couldn't find a comparable number.
I can't find any diesel specific data. I can find fleet data for "trucks" that puts fueling at 3%, washing at 0.6%, and preventative maintainance at 1.35%. I can also find data that says "on average semi trucks break down (unscheduled maintainance/reapirs) every 10k miles." So I think it's safe to assume total downtime is at least 5%. Perhaps someone else (who doesn't have a handle that rhymes with "NarcandNormi" or "Lightglade") has more insight?

You can see below Tesla Semi (top right) crushes the EV competition when in comes to charging speed
Screen-Shot-2023-09-12-at-5.43.57-PM-1024x586.png


It should take the same amount of time to clean a Tesla Semi as a diesel semi, so that's a "wash"(da-dum-ch)

I have heard cracked windshields are perhaps the most common reason for semis to be taken down, and certainly Tesla is aware of this and likely has improved on this substantially.

It seems obvious that maintainance shouldn't be more for an EV of almost any type over an ICE in the same class.
 
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It is as if those straws might be just out of reach. Keep grasping for them, nonetheless. I'm sure you will find something else to twirl with alacrity in order to support your desired level of confirmation bias.

Have you ever considered joining a circus to perform this spinning act under the big top? It could be a hit, running between the clowns and the trapeze acts.

Funny enough, there's plenty of circus acts in this thread nowadays.

Let's look at the last few days, we have:

  • Someone focused on short interest when the "days to cover" is literally one. One day. lolz
  • Dismissing the idea of Musk leaving when he himself literally is tweeting thinly veiled threats of doing so.
  • The idea that robotaxi level FSD is coming this year when it is 100x - 1000x away in reliability.
  • The idea this stock with massive volume just went up 6% yesterday because some employees bought shares
  • The usual dismissal and excuses of demand problems in front of obvious counter-evidence
  • Lowlighting / ignoring the recent failures liek 4680 DBE capabilities.
  • Claims that riding motorcycles are safer than riding bicycles

You see, people like me, we are interested in investing in the stock but only if it makes sense to us. So yeah, I would like to get into real detail understanding, for instance:

  • Real potential limitations to FSD progress and realistic timelines
  • State of 4680 production
  • Actual ramp and margins of Megapacks
  • Actual state of demand for Tesla vehicles wrt to prices and margins
  • Projected growth of vehicles over next few years.

But in the midst of some real discussion on these topics, there's also ad hominem insults, and then people glossing over each issue, like

  • FSD? "we're real close"
  • 4680? "They said yields are improving and cost competitive this year!"
  • Megapack: "Dude margins are going to be 40% and ramping 150% each year"
  • Demand: "Demand is infinite!"
  • "Musk said 3 million on current lines, see 50% growth in a year!"
These all have factual issues and don't help dig down further.

Why do I want to dig down further? Because I want to know how much money is Tesla going to make.

If I have a realistic idea of how much money they are going to make, then I can be a better investor.
 
Fremont Street in Vegas. My first sighting, yet to see one back homeView attachment 1049590
Stopped at the Superchargers at Turning Stone Casino in Verona NY yesterday. They have a lot for picking up new vehicles until they build a showroom. I counted 13 Cybertrucks in the lot. I asked if I could test drive one but they are all sold. I looked at one of the stickers and the price was $101K.

They told me the new showroom would open next year in Canastota.

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The post you quote from Papafox is from May 1.. but the same mechanisms might apply today.

Here's the post I quoted.
It was last night's update. There hadn't been this quantity of consecutive days of 60% short selling reflected in that chart back on May 1.

The link to the thread itself will take a clickee to the beginning of the most recent page, with the first post on April 30.
Then, scroll to the bottom to find the most recent post.

Edit: Thanks to @Musskiah for clearing this up already.
 
Funny enough, there's plenty of circus acts in this thread nowadays.
  • The idea that robotaxi level FSD is coming this year when it is 100x - 1000x away in reliability.
Robotaxi level FSD this year is pretty likely. Of course, it depends on how you define "robotaxi level". But you might just turn out to be the circus clown.
 
Funny enough, there's plenty of circus acts in this thread nowadays.
  • The idea this stock with massive volume just went up 6% yesterday because some employees bought shares
This is not what I said. I said, "I thought of a possible explanation that went under the radar....Employees can buy stock. Employees can show their friends who buy stock. If the right person/people are impressed enough, they might decide to buy stock on the strength of 12.4."

I offered it as a possible explanation for the pop yesterday. I never said it was likely, only possible. I have yet to see any likely explanation at all.