Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

No. In short, there is nothing actionable about the simple fact of being the one of the most shorted stocks.

That statement, and the chart that preceded it, doesn't actually support any argument in regard to the effect shorting has had on the SP over time.

Can't really say one way or the other without being able to compare to what that chart would look like if Tesla had been shorted less of what they have been over that time period.
(lots of variables that affect the entire market, so, impossible to ascertain a valid result while expecting any degree of accuracy)

Maybe we could compare with the same stock in a parallel universe where the Glass Steagall Act wasn't repealed?

Beyond that, it is what it is, and whether or not being shorted heavily was "actionable" remains an unknown.

 

[Todd Burch]

I think this is the biggest disagreement from the investor forum and the FSD forum.

As I said previously, the progress of 12.4 will tell us the rate of progress. Not Omar's videos, but daily, real usage.

I'm a bull but of the view that we'll see "only" limited supervised Robotaxi by the end of the year.

Meaning Tesla will have a pilot program with a safety driver. If we're very lucky (and by then we'll be quite a bit wealthier if so) the safety driver will come out sometime next year.

 

[GOVA]

Doesn't look like rears steer. Might be using differential braking though.
View attachment 1049609

Yes, it is hard to tell from this flick for sure. CT one looks more pronounced.
I'd say this is a wild speculation. Don't see MY needing one. Steer by wire would be another topic all together.

The whole thread's speculation was based on its perceived turning radius not the looks of rear wheels.

 

[dl003]

That statement, and the chart that preceded it, doesn't actually support any argument in regard to the effect shorting has had on the SP over time.

Can't really say one way or the other without being able to compare to what that chart would look like if Tesla had been shorted less of what they have been over that time period.
(lots of variables that affect the entire market, so, impossible to ascertain a valid result while expecting any degree of accuracy)

Maybe we could compare with the same stock in a parallel universe where the Glass Steagall Act wasn't repealed?

Beyond that, it is what it is, and whether or not being shorted heavily was "actionable" remains an unknown.

Very simple: if you think the "most shorted stock" label is actionable, try to predict daily or weekly, your choice, price action based on that info. Maybe put some money in calls / puts based on your read. Then we'll see how actionable it is. It's easy to sound smart with short interest this, % float that, but at the end of the day, what can you do with that info?

 

[FreqFlyer]

Yes, it is hard to tell from this flick for sure. CT one looks more pronounced.
I'd say this is a wild speculation. Don't see MY needing one. Steer by wire would be another topic all together.

Is rear steering needed on the Y? Is it worth the extra cost? It may have it, but the rear steering is not as pronounced. Agreed on the steer by wire, which means a 48V architecture.

 

[2daMoon]

This is not what I said. I said, "I thought of a possible explanation that went under the radar....Employees can buy stock. Employees can show their friends who buy stock. If the right person/people are impressed enough, they might decide to buy stock on the strength of 12.4."

I offered it as a possible explanation for the pop yesterday. I never said it was likely, only possible. I have yet to see any likely explanation at all.

Some people tend to interpret information in a way that seems out of context from how it was presented.

Almost as if that were the intention, in order to disrupt the thread.

But, it could be they prioritize reading between the lines over reading the lines themselves. It is always easier to find confirmation when you can make up what something really means to yourself, rather than taking it at face value the way it was intended.

Plus, it get responses, which may be important to some.

 

[SpaceCash]

No way they do rear steering on the Y. If they DO, they'll put it on everything else including the 3.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Is rear steering needed on the Y? Is it worth the extra cost? It may have it, but the rear steering is not as pronounced. Agreed on the steer by wire, which means a 48V architecture.

Tesla Model 3/Y turning radii are relatively large. It wouldn't hurt to improve them.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tesla Model 3/Y turning radii are relatively large. It wouldn't hurt to improve them.

Too much added cost and complexity. Don't think we'll see this on the higher volume cars.

 

[2daMoon]

Very simple: if you think the "most shorted stock" label is actionable, try to predict daily or weekly, your choice, price action based on that info. Maybe put some money in calls / puts based on your read. Then we'll see how actionable it is. It's easy to sound smart with short interest this, % float that, but at the end of the day, what can you do with that info?

Oh, you probably meant to post that original post in "The Wheel" thread. It was a perspective based on short-term stuff, wasn't it?

I read "actionable" originally from a "long term" investor view. I thought you meant actionable from an SEC enforcement context. Hence the Glass-Steagall Act reference.

My mistake. I was talking apples to your oranges again. It is easy to forget how your posts are often more about trading on a shorter term. Though that isn't what I come here looking for information about.

Thanks for clearing this up.

I do believe that the daily use of shorting (often closed out by day's end, or week's end) have affected investor sentiment and the SP's trajectory over the long term. Can this be proven? Of course not. This is what makes it so easy to do for those with the ability to use more shares than what exist (naked) in order to heard the sheep to the slaughterhouse.

 

[Usain]

Funny enough, there's plenty of circus acts in this thread nowadays.

But in the midst of some real discussion on these topics, there's also ad hominem insults, and then people glossing over each issue, like

• Megapack: "Dude margins are going to be 40% and ramping 150% each year"
• Demand: "Demand is infinite!"

If you are talking about megapack demand, it is indeed quasi-infinite as Elon said. These things typically pay for themselves in a year or two.

 

[scaesare]

Is rear steering needed on the Y? Is it worth the extra cost? It may have it, but the rear steering is not as pronounced. Agreed on the steer by wire, which means a 48V architecture.

Needed? No... they work today without it. But then again Cybertruck would have too.

Useful: Likely. Better maneuverability never hurts.

Safer: Again probably... it likely reduces risk of skid, improves obstacle avoidance, etc...


All of that having been said, it remains to be seen if they'd include it on high-volume cars, or if they did perhaps make it an option.

I captured the frame right after @mongo 's in his post, and I thought it may have looked like the rear tire was kicked out a bit... but hard to tell:

 

[scaesare]

According to his own words he'd like that. He doesn’t want to be CEO.

And he isn't.. he's.... Technoking!

 

[Tachyon]

Funny enough, there's plenty of circus acts in this thread nowadays.

Let's look at the last few days, we have:

• Someone focused on short interest when the "days to cover" is literally one. One day. lolz
• Dismissing the idea of Musk leaving when he himself literally is tweeting thinly veiled threats of doing so.
• The idea that robotaxi level FSD is coming this year when it is 100x - 1000x away in reliability.
• The idea this stock with massive volume just went up 6% yesterday because some employees bought shares
• The usual dismissal and excuses of demand problems in front of obvious counter-evidence
• Lowlighting / ignoring the recent failures liek 4680 DBE capabilities.
• Claims that riding motorcycles are safer than riding bicycles

You see, people like me, we are interested in investing in the stock but only if it makes sense to us. So yeah, I would like to get into real detail understanding, for instance:

• Real potential limitations to FSD progress and realistic timelines
• State of 4680 production
• Actual ramp and margins of Megapacks
• Actual state of demand for Tesla vehicles wrt to prices and margins
• Projected growth of vehicles over next few years.

But in the midst of some real discussion on these topics, there's also ad hominem insults, and then people glossing over each issue, like

• FSD? "we're real close"
• 4680? "They said yields are improving and cost competitive this year!"
• Megapack: "Dude margins are going to be 40% and ramping 150% each year"
• Demand: "Demand is infinite!"
• "Musk said 3 million on current lines, see 50% growth in a year!"

These all have factual issues and don't help dig down further.

Why do I want to dig down further? Because I want to know how much money is Tesla going to make.

If I have a realistic idea of how much money they are going to make, then I can be a better investor.

I couldn’t disagree more with your first statement about “Days to cover “the short interest
You seriously think shorters can cover in 1 day , do you even have any idea what it would do to the share price
When Elon was selling just about 4 million shares per day stock would
Drop by close to 8-10%

Imagine if 120 million shares were to be bought in 1 day , it will be the most epic squeeze the likes of which no one has ever seen

Sometimes people tend to ignore the basic math and spin alternative facts .
I dare the shorters to try cover their short interest in 1 day and let’s see what happens .

 

[dl003]

Oh, you probably meant to post that original post in "The Wheel" thread. It was a perspective based on short-term stuff, wasn't it?

I read "actionable" originally from a "long term" investor view. I thought you meant actionable from an SEC enforcement context. Hence the Glass-Steagall Act reference.

My mistake. I was talking apples to your oranges again. It is easy to forget how your posts are often more about trading on a shorter term. Though that isn't what I come here looking for information about.

Thanks for clearing this up.

I do believe that the daily use of shorting (often closed out by day's end, or week's end) have affected investor sentiment and the SP's trajectory over the long term. Can this be proven? Of course not. This is what makes it so easy to do for those with the ability to use more shares than what exist (naked) in order to heard the sheep to the slaughterhouse.

I mean, you read "actionable" under a stock chart thought it referred to the SEC...
A huge number of people here care about the short term movement more than they're willing to admit. After all, if not they, then who read Papafox's everyday?

 

[Usain]

I think this is the biggest disagreement from the investor forum and the FSD forum.

As I said previously, the progress of 12.4 will tell us the rate of progress. Not Omar's videos, but daily, real usage.

I agree, but unfortunately, the rate of progress will still be hard to measure. The thing I'm looking for is that 12.4 will be "noticeably better" than 12.3. And I'm looking for 12.5 to be "noticeably better" than 12.4.

But when we get to 12.5, it may be harder to notice. Two reasons:
1) Problems may be rare enough in 12.4 that it's hard to discern how much better 12.5 is.
2) 12.5 promises a lot of new features. This may mean that the development team will spend less time improving the basic driving functionality.

The thing that makes me confident in FSD is what I've seen from AI research. Now that Tesla has sufficient compute, their end-to-end solution should improve rapidly.

It ought to work. Elon is obviously convinced. I'm convinced enough to bet a lot of money on it.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Look how much incorrectness in just the last few pages. And ad hominem attacks

Robotaxi level FSD this year is pretty likely. Of course, it depends on how you define "robotaxi level". But you might just turn out to be the circus clown.

Based on what quantitative performance metrics? Currently critical disengagements are at ~ 1 every 200 miles. That will need to go up 100x at least. Are you saying assuming a 100x improvement in the model in the next 8 months is a reasonable assumption?

This is not what I said. I said, "I thought of a possible explanation that went under the radar....Employees can buy stock. Employees can show their friends who buy stock. If the right person/people are impressed enough, they might decide to buy stock on the strength of 12.4."

I offered it as a possible explanation for the pop yesterday. I never said it was likely, only possible. I have yet to see any likely explanation at all.

Again, the volumes needed to move the stock 6% are orders of magnitude larger than some employees and their pals.

Some people tend to interpret information in a way that seems out of context from how it was presented.

Almost as if that were the intention, in order to disrupt the thread.

But, it could be they prioritize reading between the lines over reading the lines themselves. It is always easier to find confirmation when you can make up what something really means to yourself, rather than taking it at face value the way it was intended.

Plus, it get responses, which may be important to some.

No, the main disruption in this thread is by people resorting to ad hominem and not keeping their feet on the ground.

If you are talking about megapack demand, it is indeed quasi-infinite as Elon said. These things typically pay for themselves in a year or two.

LOL. Well I was talking about automotive, but now that you mention it, another falsehood. They don't pay for themselves in a year or two, those are extreme cases for managing grid stability / avoiding peaker plants. Those benefits do not scale with volume.

And demand has PRICE associated with it. Sure there is a lot of demand if price comes down. E.g. margins will have to come down.

I couldn’t disagree more with your first statement about “Days to cover “the short interest
You seriously think shorters can cover in 1 day , do you even have any idea what it would do to the share price
When Elon was selling just about 4 million shares per day stock would
Drop by close to 8-10%

Imagine if 120 million shares were to be bought in 1 day , it will be the most epic squeeze the likes of which no one has ever seen

Sometimes people tend to ignore the basic math and spin alternative facts .
I dare the shorters to try cover their short interest in 1 day and let’s see what happens .

LOL. I'm not making up days to cover. It's not my metric.

But Tesla short interest is simply not high by any global standard. High short interest is not 3.5%, it's 30%.

 

[Usain]

Based on what quantitative performance metrics? Currently critical disengagements are at ~ 1 every 200 miles. That will need to go up 100x at least. Are you saying assuming a 100x improvement in the model in the next 8 months is a reasonable assumption?

Your standard was "robotaxi-level FSD". You will need to define that term before I can comment further.

 

[UncaNed]

I'm a bull but of the view that we'll see "only" limited supervised Robotaxi by the end of the year.

Meaning Tesla will have a pilot program with a safety driver. If we're very lucky (and by then we'll be quite a bit wealthier if so) the safety driver will come out sometime next year.

End of which year?

 

[Doit]

I think its perfectly fair to love TSLA (I do!) and admire and support Elon (I do!) but still think its ridiculous how many companies he is apparently running. Twitter was definitely a step too far. I love that he changed what he did there, but I'd be happier if he could both sell his twitter stock (and rebuy Tesla), and step away entirely from that one.
I don't think Elon will ever quit Tesla or SpaceX. They are companies he fought so hard for in their early years. But if he announced he is stepping away from neuralink, boring company and twitter, I think most of us would consider that a wise move.

I admire that Musk...
I support that Musk...
I love that...
....
in the meantime,
I think Musk should...
I believe Musk should...
I also think Musk should...

and

I'm not Musk, BTW