Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

At this point she is only trying to promote herself. Increase her Twitter followers

HARD disagree on that one, provide some evidence there Lofty?

 

[aronth5]

Your post is full of contradictions. We may never hit 1bn bots/year, that's decades away, if at all. Yet bots will (relatively soon) be the highest volume production product in the world, more than phones.

There are about 1.2 bn new phones sold every year.

Your math ain't math'ing.

Forget the numbers. Everyone is just guessing anyway.
I believe most people would agree the one common characteristic of all successful product disruptions is mis judging and not understanding the change that is coming. Consider

• Internet
• PC's
• Digital Cameras
• Main-frame to mini computers
• Ball point pens
• Cell phones
• Streaming
• EV's
• etc.

And the list goes on and on. In every situation people criticized the incoming technology and down played the impact because they didn't understand or appreciate the possibilities. The latter is critical.

My suggestion is, take a step back and don't do the same thing with Optimus because right now it looks like you are going to repeat history.

 

[Mengy]

Forget the numbers. Everyone is just guessing anyway.

Exactly. Elon could be wrong, it might eventually be more than 1 billion bots produced per year, no one can predict with any certainty. Once bots are building bots who knows what the freaking ceiling will be. The world has never seen anything like what is about to happen to our society, this will be completely new territory for humanity and technology.

 

[STARR X]

But you will finance it and it will cut more from your budget than the payment. No more housekeeper, lawnboy, pool guy, nail salon, hair salon, laundry service, meal prep, etc.

Home school your child, allow people to age at home, security. It just goes on….

 

[ggies07]

So, as humans we know there are several different ways to get to our destination in the city. My observation after using FSD for two days is that there needs to be a way to update your route as the navigation route is taking you to your destination.

For example, I like to get on the main road from my neighborhood to go to work, but then a few miles down, I take a side street that cuts faster to the highway instead of doing a big straight shot and taking a left onto the next main road to get to the highway. I would like to be able to use a voice command and tell the navigation to "take a left at this street" and continue on, without having to turn FSD off to take the street and then back on when I'm on it....make sense?

This is becoming a real pain, as I (we) all have our favorite/best ways to get from point A to B and I feel like using Google Maps in a static way like this is getting in the way of me using FSD.

 

[wipster]

If true, this is huge:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1802752042034663685

Edit: looks like it's on the order site now too! Wow.

 

[ggies07]

Also, this is a great recent interview with Drew Baglino. Still can't believe he is gone...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799017988399706332

 

[wipster]

Sure glad we got Barron's advising people that $TSLA wont top $200 until a 'more major' event:

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Paywalled of course, must be a light FUD day due to $TSLA being up.

I think it may happen if the $7,500 fed rebate on the M3 LR is true... we'll find out tomorrow!

Edit: it's on the order site, so it's true!!!

 

[Musskiah]

I can't wait for all the drama around the next comp package vote. A mere $56 Billy is chump change. The next one is going to be downright flagrant!

Warren speculates "The main criteria most investors will care about is market cap. The market cap target for the first tranche, or set of options, might be a $2 Trillion market cap.
Additional tranches would be released for market cap increases of $2 Trillion each up to $20 Trillion. Achieving all the targets with this measure would add up to 11 percent of Tesla stock, valued at $2.2 Trillion. With roughly 3 billion shares currently issued, Elon would add over 300 million shares."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1802676827095474382

 

[DarkandStormy]

Once bots are building bots who knows what the freaking ceiling will be. The world has never seen anything like what is about to happen to our society, this will be completely new territory for humanity and technology.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Y'all been warned Must be a DBA entity from GLJ Research.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Y'all been warned Must be a DBA entity from GLJ Research.

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So he's saying Tesla's P/E should be under 5. Uh, ok. Good luck with that one Mr. Short!

 

[Thekiwi]

FYI: Trump tells GOP congressional members he intends to reverse current pro-EV policies:

Donald Trump told House Republicans that he would undo President Joe Biden’s electric vehicle policies if he wins in November

Donald Trump criticized President Joe Biden's electric vehicle policies during a meeting with House Republicans on Thursday, promising to reverse them if he wins the presidency in November, according to lawmakers present at the private gathering. Representative Russ Fulcher, a Republican from...

unusualwhales.com

 

[heltok]

I can't wait for all the drama around the next comp package vote. A mere $56 Billy is chump change. The next one is going to be downright flagrant!

Warren speculates "The main criteria most investors will care about is market cap. The market cap target for the first tranche, or set of options, might be a $2 Trillion market cap.
Additional tranches would be released for market cap increases of $2 Trillion each up to $20 Trillion. Achieving all the targets with this measure would add up to 11 percent of Tesla stock, valued at $2.2 Trillion. With roughly 3 billion shares currently issued, Elon would add over 300 million shares."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1802676827095474382

People with no stake in the game will complain, but us shareholders will be happy to give Elon 10% if he gets the market cap to $25T.

 

[Musskiah]

Y'all been warned Must be a DBA entity from GLJ Research.

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Lekander literally said “I think this is hugely dangerous, and in the end, it’s going to prove to be the next Enron." Dustin Moskovitz, a Facebook founder, has also drawn similar comparisons to Enron. If I'm not mistaken GLJ made similar assertions. They can't all be wrong, can they? (Tongue in cheek)

 

[Musskiah]

FYI: Trump tells GOP congressional members he intends to reverse current pro-EV policies:

Donald Trump told House Republicans that he would undo President Joe Biden’s electric vehicle policies if he wins in November

Donald Trump criticized President Joe Biden's electric vehicle policies during a meeting with House Republicans on Thursday, promising to reverse them if he wins the presidency in November, according to lawmakers present at the private gathering. Representative Russ Fulcher, a Republican from...

unusualwhales.com

EM would prefer to do away with both EV and fossil fuel incentives. It appears likely, in the event of a Trump win this November, he will seek to align himself with the Turmp administration.

 

[Dutchie]

Y'all been warned Must be a DBA entity from GLJ Research.

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I just cannot believe that news outlets just publish these stories without a little critical thinking. If that were to happen it would imply a market cap of about 50 billion. If you look at the financials that is about the same amount of the total current assets with about half that in cash.

I think Tesla is an amazing company and capable of doing earth shattering and great things but I don’t think it is capable of burning through that amount of cash in just a couple of months that that warrants a market cap similar to its total current assets.

 

[dhanson865]

Even a small attempt at imagination would avoid this pointless back-and-forth.

I'm just adding to the diversion at this point...but this seems to have become a conversation where people are asking for a prediction of a far, FAR future potential product. Critics seem to want an inclusive list of uses for what is today an imaginary product...and then act like like the product won't have much market unless those specific predictions could sell the product to them and/or a suitably large number of consumers worldwide today.

Spoiler: More explanation

GatorMeat was giving a few basic examples and ended the list with an "etc.", implying that a rational person could perhaps think of more examples that might apply to them.

The point was, more generally: Many MANY people today have things that they pay extra for that MAYBE a robot could do in the future. There are also people who spend time on things that they would rather not do. So, think about SOMETHING you pay for that MAYBE a robot could reduce the cost for. Or something you do "for free" yourself, but you don't enjoy doing it. Or, think about something you enjoy doing, that MAYBE other people don't -- the robot could do it for THEM and have value for THEM. This requires the use of imagination instead of a weird insistence that a random internet commenter needs to find an example that applies to you.

Again, this is a prediction of the FAR future...nobody is saying it's happening tomorrow, and there's no reason for a full marketing justification to be announced (by a random forum commenter) today.

Spoiler: Example of using imagination

I enjoy cooking, so it's not much value to me to have a robot cook my meals, even if it cooks the food I like. But, I'm not going to insist that EVERYBODY can or should just cook their meals. I know MANY MANY people hate cooking or don't have time for it. Even getting decent groceries is a chore many people would rather avoid. Cooking and eating at home usually means either wasting money on disposable dinnerware, or somebody spending the time to scrape the dishes/load the dishwasher/empty the dishwasher. Even that bit of cleanup dissuades people from cooking at home. So, MANY people end up spending a lot more money on either buying mostly pre-made meals, or living off junkfood, or getting unhealthy fast food, or getting take-out, or going to sit-down restaurants.

We know there is a market here -- many people would love to have more home cooked meals just to avoid expensive and/or unhealthy restaurant meals. We know many people use services like "Hello Fresh" just to short-cut the home cooked meal process. We know many people pay ~25% extra for each item, plus fees and a tip just to have Instacart or other services do their shopping and deliver their groceries.

Okay, now imagine that there's a family of 4 or 5 people. A robot becomes available that can pick up their groceries (via self driving car or robotaxi?), and then come home and cook 3 meals a day for the entire family, and clean all the pots and pans and dinnerware afterwards. Again, far far future stuff. Yes, Imagination .

Okay...now, in todays dollars, a $20K robot paid off over the course of 5 years costs about $350 a month.

For a family of 4 or 5, how many avoided restaurant meals does it take to save $350/month? No, it's not going to work if you're replacing dollar-menu fast food restaurant meals with fillet mignon cooked at home....but good, healthy home meals cooked from basic ingredients are remarkably inexpensive relative to most restaurant faire.

Now, keep in mind that same robot can also potentially do the laundry and put the clothes away after. Mow the lawn. Trim the trees. Wash the cars. Make the beds. Dust the house. Vacuum. Clean the windows and mirrors. Scrub the toilets. And, of course, "etc." so you can maybe think of some chore that you either don't enjoy doing, or that you might currently pay for as a service.

Of course this is all "first world" stuff. No starving family living in a dirt floor hut is going to get one of these bots...but maybe in this same far future, we won't have so many suffering people in the world.

My examples also rely on some sort of an idealized group (family, friends, whatever) that lives together. Obviously, this robot has zero value to somebody that lives alone and is perfectly happy with a filthy living space while they game all day and subsist on energy drinks, chips, and multivitamines.

And of course, this is just personal use...since that's what the above conversation was about. Businesses will order up robots to fill many roles. Even just sticking to the "daily food" subject, restaurants would similarly replace waitstaff, cooks, and the cleaning crew with robots.

And since it gets brought up repeatedly...yes, robots replacing people at jobs might put many people out of work...but Elon has long pointed out that the definition of an economy would necessarily change, and something like "Universal Basic Income" will likely be needed. But, again, far future imagining here. The fact that today's political scene would implode isn't the point.

*Edited for clarity.

and no one in the last few pages has even discussed total addressable market for this product is not limited to the Earth.

Bots will be made on earth for use on the moon and Mars.

Very very likely to be Tesla bots on Mars before humans, or at the least out numbering the humans that do go.

The weight savings in liquid oxygen needed to keep a human alive for months let alone years would be huge. Meaning more usable cargo the higher the robot to human ratio you use.

 

[Thekiwi]

and no one in the last few pages has even discussed total addressable market for this product is not limited to the Earth.

Bots will be made on earth for use on the moon and Mars.

Very very likely to be Tesla bots on Mars before humans, or at the least out numbering the humans that do go.

The weight savings in liquid oxygen needed to keep a human alive for months let alone years would be huge. Meaning more usable cargo the higher the robot to human ratio you use.

I’m not sure the market size of mars/moon is going to big enough to be even be called a rounding error when compared to the opportunity for it in Earth’s economy. The only way it should enter the conversation is as a good marketing stunt. For instance having a modified Optimus on the first Artemis mission that uses the spaceX HLS on the moon in a few years would be great marketing for Tesla.

 

[dhanson865]

I’m not sure the market size of mars/moon is going to big enough to be even be called a rounding error when compared to the opportunity for it in Earth’s economy. The only way it should enter the conversation is as a good marketing stunt. For instance having a modified Optimus on the first Artemis mission that uses the spaceX HLS on the moon in a few years would be great marketing for Tesla.

The plan is 1 million humans on mars by 2050, how many millions of humanoid robots would you use to build habitat and provide services for that population? Especially when each human you bring is costing you so much in fuel + breathable oxygen to get there.

Construction, exploration, safety (I'd feel safer on another planet/planetoid to have a robot or two near me at all times that aren't currently busy with their hands full), and so on.

What if every ship had hundreds of humanoid robots for every human. What if there were 1,000 humanoid robots for every human on Mars at the point Mars hits 1,000,000 humans? How high does that ratio have to get before you consider it significant to our prior discussion?