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To FSD or not FSD….that is the question…

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My last post in this thread on Elon & L5.

I don't understand this obsession about saying Elon talks about L5. He simply doesn't. Not directly, anyway. But for all practical purposes he describes his FSD / Robotaxi ideas as what one might consider L4/L5. But it is simply futile to straight jacket what Elon talks about in terms of, what I've argued earlier to be, a poorly written standard.
 
This is is circular logic and it makes no sense. L2, L3, L4 and L5 is how we classify different types of automated driving systems. So all automated driving systems must be either L2, L3, L4 or L5. Therefore, Tesla's FSD has to be one of those levels.
Aren't you the one applying circular logic here? The upthread point was that the SAE system doesn't provide meaningful value when comparing real systems in the real world (c.f. the OSI Networking Stack, which everyone thought was The *sugar* in the 70's, but which turned out to be completely unable to categorize the actual internet that transformed society).

And your retort seems to be "No, SAE is a good way to categorize autonomy, because it is the way classify different types of automated driving systems". That's not a defense, it's a retreat to definition.

And it's wrong. SAE is basically junk. Real autonomy is evolving in different directions and across different axes. And one proof is that the most capable autonomy solution available to the consumer today is implemented via a driver assist UI and is thus only "level 2", whereas you can put a radar and lane sensor into your junky 1990's sedan and be "level THREE (on certain blessed highways, unless the user needs to change lanes or there's any construction". Clearly one system is more valuable than the other, but not in a way captured by SAE.
 
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My last post in this thread on Elon & L5.

I don't understand this obsession about saying Elon talks about L5. He simply doesn't. Not directly, anyway. But for all practical purposes he describes his FSD / Robotaxi ideas as what one might consider L4/L5. But it is simply futile to straight jacket what Elon talks about in terms of, what I've argued earlier to be, a poorly written standard.
Elon has most definitely specifically talked about Level 5, many of these are documented in the FSD Timeline Promises thread. I don't think he has any tweets about it, but he has mentioned it many times in earnings calls and interviews.

In the 2020 Q4 earnings call
Musk: I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%.
Transcript: https://www.businessinsider.com/elo...tesla-accelerate-advent-of-sustainable-energy
 
Aren't you the one applying circular logic here? The upthread point was that the SAE system doesn't provide meaningful value when comparing real systems in the real world (c.f. the OSI Networking Stack, which everyone thought was The *sugar* in the 70's, but which turned out to be completely unable to categorize the actual internet that transformed society).

And your retort seems to be "No, SAE is a good way to categorize autonomy, because it is the way classify different types of automated driving systems". That's not a defense, it's a retreat to definition.

And it's wrong. SAE is basically junk.

I disagree. The SAE levels are not perfect but I do think the SAE levels provide meaningful value and an overall good classification for autonomous driving. They define what parts of driving the system is responsible for and what parts the human is responsible for. And if you read J3016, it defines DDT, OEDR, Remote Monitoring, Fallback, ODD, etc...

Thanks to the SAE levels, we know that if a system is L2, it can do some driving tasks but cannot do the entire OEDR and needs a human driver. If a system is L3, we know it can do self-driving but needs the human to sometimes take over. If a system is L4, we know that the system is full self-driving but only in a certain ODD. We know that L4 does not need a human to take over inside the ODD but will require a human to take over to exit the ODD. And if a system were to be L5, we would know that it is full self-driving everywhere a human can drive and therefore does not need a human driver unless the human wants to drive manually.

So yes, I think there is value in the SAE levels if you understand them.

Real autonomy is evolving in different directions and across different axes.

Please elaborate because I don't see this at all. What's "real autonomy" to you? Real autonomy is a car that can drive without human supervision. That's L4 and L5, with L4 basically being real autonomy in a geofenced area and L5 being real autonomy everywhere. In fact, the only real autonomous driving we have so far (Waymo, Cruise, etc) fit perfectly with SAE L4. And what axes are you talking about?
 
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Please elaborate because I don't see this at all. In fact, the only real autonomous driving we have so far (Waymo, Cruise, etc) are evolving exactly like the SAE defines L4.
Problem is since ODD is not standardized - one OEM can claim L3 (but on tiny, tiny ODD) and other with very broad ODD could be L2. Consumers would think - looking just at the levels that the first OEM has a more useful system than the second OEM. That may not be the case.

We had the same kind of argument a year or two back.

As they say, it feels like déjà vu all over again.

ps : I can understand why they didn't specify ODD. They probably didn't get consensus. May be its a good time for them to revisit this and define standard ODDs to help consumers easily compare among various vendors.
 
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Please elaborate because I don't see this at all. What's "real autonomy" to you? Real autonomy is a car that can drive without human supervision. That's L4 and L5, with L4 basically being real autonomy in a geofenced area and L5 being real autonomy everywhere. In fact, the only real autonomous driving we have so far (Waymo, Cruise, etc) fit perfectly with SAE L4. And what axes are you talking about?
Wow. I literally followed that sentence you quoted with a paragraph containing an example and explanation. All I can do is repeat it with fewer words and hope you read it this time:

Tesla FSD is wildly more capable than any autonomy solution available to the consumer. Yet it remains "level 2" while silly traffic jam toys claim "level 3" based on minimized behavior and heavy geofencing. And that's dumb.

Your response, it seems, is again a purely semantic one. You take the SAE definition of "autonomy" as canon and then define SAE's categorization as correct since it meets its own defintion. And... that's dumb. Because it fails to capture value as perceived by actual consumers of actual products.
 
Show me actual clarifications - apparently more than once - that "FSD does mean L5". Should be easy, peeze - if true, right ?
"the basic news is that all Tesla vehicles exiting the factory have the hardware necessary for level 5 autonomy so that in terms of the connector cameras and compute power it's every call we make, on the order of two thousand cars a week, are shipping now with Level 5 meaning hardware capable of a full self-driving or driverless capability so it will take us some time you know in the future to complete validation of the software and also get through required regulatory approval but the important thing is that the foundation is laid for the cars to be fully autonomous at a safety level we believe to be at least twice that of a person may be better so I think that's probably unexpected by most that it's happening right now"
 
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If you haven’t paid the $10k, it’s not worth it. If you paid $10k then trying to get the beta is worth it, because that’s probably the only way you’ll ever get to try anything for your hard earned (maybe) money.

Also if you have any beta issues, don’t expect any better customer service from that team than from any other Tesla department. I’ve been trying to resolve the production issues from delivery since August (beta unrelated). Also been trying to resolve (beta related) 10.5 software push issues for the past 7 days. Car is stuck on 10.4 with only an update available into 2021.40.6 which is a non-beta build. No response from [email protected] after 2 emails.
 
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This is is circular logic and it makes no sense. L2, L3, L4 and L5 is how we classify different types of automated driving systems. So all automated driving systems must be either L2, L3, L4 or L5. Therefore, Tesla's FSD has to be one of those levels.
Tesla never certified FSD to mean anything to any agency like NHTSA. ADS can be compared to L"x" but that's it. If there is going to be certifiable process to comply to a certain specification you can bet manufacturers are going to go through serious legal changes to the wording of "Lx" or whatever spec it turns out to be called.
 
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And one proof is that the most capable autonomy solution available to the consumer today is implemented via a driver assist UI and is thus only "level 2", whereas you can put a radar and lane sensor into your junky 1990's sedan and be "level THREE (on certain blessed highways, unless the user needs to change lanes or there's any construction". Clearly one system is more valuable than the other, but not in a way captured by SAE.

It is not the job of the SAE to assign value. Their job is to define function and role. The consumer can look at the level and the ODD and figure out the value.

Tesla FSD is wildly more capable than any autonomy solution available to the consumer. Yet it remains "level 2" while silly traffic jam toys claim "level 3" based on minimized behavior and heavy geofencing. And that's dumb.

It's not dumb if you understand how the levels work. The SAE is very clear that L3 is not automatically better than L2. L3 is merely different than L2. They simply describe function and role and they define what is autonomous or not. L2 means the driver always has to pay attention and therefore it is not autonomous. L3 means that the driver sometimes does not have to pay attention and therefore it is limited autonomous. Tesla's "FSD" being L2 does not imply that it is less capable than L3, it simply means that it requires constant driver attention and therefore it is not autonomous. A system can be very capable and not be autonomous. There is nothing wrong with being L2. Again, L2 is not necessarily inferior to L3, it's just different than L3.

Your response, it seems, is again a purely semantic one. You take the SAE definition of "autonomy" as canon and then define SAE's categorization as correct since it meets its own defintion. And... that's dumb. Because it fails to capture value as perceived by actual consumers of actual products.

Their definition is canon. They are the society of automotive engineers. So they get to define autonomy from a technical, engineering point of view. You are confusing two different issues. One issue is the technical definition. The other issue is consumer value. Obviously, consumers get to assign value as they see fit but that is different from the technical definition. The SAE levels merely define the type of autonomous driving. It is up to consumers to look at the level + ODD and decide the value.

Problem is since ODD is not standardized - one OEM can claim L3 (but on tiny, tiny ODD) and other with very broad ODD could be L2. Consumers would think - looking just at the levels that the first OEM has a more useful system than the second OEM. That may not be the case.

We had the same kind of argument a year or two back.

As they say, it feels like déjà vu all over again.

Yes, it feels like deja vu. But this is a red herring. Consumers are not going to look at just the level, they are also going to look at the ODD.

Some people seem to want the SAE levels to be something they are not intended to be. They want the levels to be some type of ranking where consumers can just look at the level and know what system is better. They don't seem to understand that you are supposed to give the level and the ODD as a combo to describe a system. The level is only one piece. It is not meant to describe the entire autonomous driving system.

ps : I can understand why they didn't specify ODD. They probably didn't get consensus. May be its a good time for them to revisit this and define standard ODDs to help consumers easily compare among various vendors.

Defining standard ODDs is a bad idea because ODDs involve too many different factors, from geofencing, to road types, to weather conditions, to traffic speeds etc... So it is not possible to cover every possible type of ODD. And if you try to cover the main ones, you could miss one. What if you create a few standard ODDs and a manufacturer decides to deploy an autonomous driving system with an ODD you forgot? It is better to leave ODDs out of the levels so that the levels can cover different autonomous driving, regardless of what ODD a manufacturer chooses.

SAE J3016, page 32:

Conceptually, the role of a driving automation system vis-à-vis a user in performance of part or all of the DDT is orthogonal to the specific conditions under which it performs that role. For example, a specific implementation of adaptive cruise control may be intended to operate only at high speeds, only at low speeds, or at all speeds. For simplicity, however, this taxonomy collapses these two axes into a single set of levels of driving automation. Levels 1 through 4 expressly contemplate ODD limitations. In contrast, Level 5 (like Level 0) does not have ODD limitations (subject to the discussion in 8.8).Accordingly, accurately describing a feature (other than at Levels 0 and 5) requires identifying both its level of driving automation and its operational design domain (ODD). As provided in the definitions above, this combination of level of driving automation and ODD is called a usage specification, and a given feature satisfies a given usage specification.

Basically, Tesla fans are confusing levels with usage specification. They want the levels to be the usage specification when they are not. Level + ODD = usage specification.
 
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Basically, Tesla fans are confusing levels with usage specification.
Gah, no. You are the one doing that, because you are here on this forum making arguments above about product value based on reference to antiquated SAE categorization rules. And you won't accept arguments to the contrary by reference to those same categories! It's all circular.

I mean, if your only point was that "Tesla doesn't meet SAE Level 3" autonomy this wouldn't be a fight. But you jumped in above to argue against a poster making the express argument that SAE doesn't capture the value provided by the product.

I'm done. I'll be honest: everything you're writing seems to be in bad faith. You're either not understanding the argument or just trolling.
 
Defining standard ODDs is a bad idea because ODDs involve too many different factors, from geofencing, to road types, to weather conditions, to traffic speeds etc... So it is not possible to cover every possible type of ODD. And if you try to cover the main ones, you could miss one.
I hold the opposite view - when things are complicated and complex, SAE should step up and define standards to help consumers. If its simple they don't need to set standards !

SAE doesn't need to "cover all possible types" - just define levels of ODD or categories. An OEM that satisfies a particular category can be "certified" to be that category.

So we can have Level 2 Category 4 to be better than Level 2 Category 3, for eg.
 
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Best I can tell, it isn’t worth it. I read all the articles I can find and none have convinced me. I think the 10k is more about “the promise of what the future could bring”.
It’s not really about the money…I live a comfy life….I’m also wise with my money and don’t waste it.

I’d also be PISSED if the price jumps considerably and it moves into level 5 autonomous.

What to do….what to do….
It's not worth it at the moment because the software doesn't work well enough to rely on yet. If I were to buy a new Tesla right now I wouldn't pay extra for FSD but would rather pay the monthly fee once the software is more reliable. The fee also lets you try it for a month and if it's not up to your expectations you can drop it until it's working better. At $10,000 it takes over 4 years of $200 monthly payments to break even and since the fully functional FSD probably won't be available for a year or more you would save money in the long term by not paying for it now.
 
It is up to consumers to look at the level + ODD and decide the value.
Yeah but this is precisely why the SAE levels suck. The SAE defined this nice ranking system that isn't a ranking system and automakers are free to construct an ODD such that they can race to L3 or L4 or whatever (this is completely ignoring the pageantry that is "certification"). That's how you get people raving over traffic jam chauffeur:


I'd rather have Tesla's ADAS any day of the week over Honda's. This guy apparently thinks his Honda's L2 system is comparable to Tesla's. A few quotes to illustrate:
Some longitudinal control systems can continue to auto-follow even in stop-and-go traffic, whereas others switch off if your car decelerates below a specific speed (mine stops below 22 mph).
(I had this on a Toyota before my Tesla. It was terrifying since you were always worried it was going to get you into a nice low-speed collision.)
Once you’re figured out adaptive cruise control and achieved longitudinal control, look for features that allow your car to stay in its lane. The technical term for this capability is “lateral control,” but manufacturers often call it “lane following assist” or “automatic lane centering.” The systems use your car’s front-facing camera to find lane markers on the road, and then to keep your car centered within those markers.
(Either he doesn't understand what Tesla's ADAS does or he doesn't understand what Honda's does. If it's the latter, it's dangerous. I've heard people conflate lane keep assist with Autosteer and I fear driving anywhere near those people.)

So who cares what SAE level Tesla's system is at? If you understand what the features are capable of (and especially what they're not capable of), they're incredibly useful. If I ever have to describe Autopilot to someone, I never start out with "yeah, it's an SAE L2 system designed to work on limited-access highways". By the time you explain what an L2 system is and where Autopilot is designed to work, you've defined what Autopilot is. Why not just start from there? The SAE levels are just jargon. Maybe they're useful in technical contexts, but they shouldn't be marketed to consumers. (And to really drive that point home, a lot of people on these forums I'm assuming are consumers and not automotive engineers, myself included.)
 
So who cares what SAE level Tesla's system is at? If you understand what the features are capable of (and especially what they're not capable of), they're incredibly useful. If I ever have to describe Autopilot to someone, I never start out with "yeah, it's an SAE L2 system designed to work on limited-access highways". By the time you explain what an L2 system is and where Autopilot is designed to work, you've defined what Autopilot is. Why not just start from there? The SAE levels are just jargon. Maybe they're useful in technical contexts, but they shouldn't be marketed to consumers. (And to really drive that point home, a lot of people on these forums I'm assuming are consumers and not automotive engineers, myself included.)
But there's a HUGE difference between the car being responsible for driving (L3-L5) and the driver being responsible for driving (L0-L2). They should have never defined them as sequential numbers. There's basically nothing to define about L0-L2, they could have left it out completely. The regulations that include the SAE levels are all only about L3-L5.
 
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But there's a HUGE difference between the car being responsible for driving (L3-L5) and the driver being responsible for driving (L0-L2). They should have never defined them as sequential numbers. There's basically nothing to define about L0-L2, they could have left it out completely. The regulations that include the SAE levels are all only about L3-L5.
Totally agree. My point is that marketing the liability shift to consumers in terms of L3-L5 is still utterly pointless. L4 and L5 are essentially indistinguishable from a consumer's point of view, and the supposed liability shift in L3 is somewhat dubious. (What's to stop a manufacturer from creating such a useless system that it hot potato's driving over to you at the slightest stray input?)

And yeah it's implied that L3-L5 have this liability shift due to the fact that "the car is driving", but the SAE doesn't make laws. We're defining the liability shift in terms of L3-L5 but what's really important is that liability shift itself. This is what needs to be marketed, not the levels.

(And WDYM there's nothing to define about L0-L2? All we have today are L0-L2 cars with very few exceptions. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the levels make sense here either, but the features that fall into these buckets are extremely useful. L1 features should be standard on all cars and L2 features should hopefully start becoming more available.)
 
Totally agree. My point is that marketing the liability shift to consumers in terms of L3-L5 is still utterly pointless. L4 and L5 are essentially indistinguishable from a consumer's point of view, and the supposed liability shift in L3 is somewhat dubious. (What's to stop a manufacturer from creating such a useless system that it hot potato's driving over to you at the slightest stray input?)

And yeah it's implied that L3-L5 have this liability shift due to the fact that "the car is driving", but the SAE doesn't make laws. We're defining the liability shift in terms of L3-L5 but what's really important is that liability shift itself. This is what needs to be marketed, not the levels.

(And WDYM there's nothing to define about L0-L2? All we have today are L0-L2 cars with very few exceptions. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the levels make sense here either, but the features that fall into these buckets are extremely useful. L1 features should be standard on all cars and L2 features should hopefully start becoming more available.)
It looks to me like L2 systems are on almost every car sold today in the US. I just don't see the value in the SAE coming up with some sort of taxonomy for L2 systems.
Here's Honda's press release about their L3 system:
The references to Level 3 are all about regulatory approval (as they should be).
I'm not concerned at all about the "hot potato" issue. There's no way regulators would approve of that.
 
But there's a HUGE difference between the car being responsible for driving (L3-L5) and the driver being responsible for driving (L0-L2). They should have never defined them as sequential numbers. There's basically nothing to define about L0-L2, they could have left it out completely. The regulations that include the SAE levels are all only about L3-L5.
But there's equally a "HUGE" difference between a car that can reliably navigate across 20 miles of suburbs without intervention and one that lets you troll people on twitter if you happen to get stuck in traffic on one of the dozen or so blessed highways.

The former is worth $10k to me, the latter is just a dumb stunt. Yet (1) no one came up with a snazzy ranking system for the thing I actually wanted to buy, and (2) people (aided and abetted by pedantic classifiers like you and some of the others in this thread) insist that the snazzy ranking system that doesn't reflect what I want to purchase somehow means that the dumb toy does what my car can. And that's laughably wrong.

Ergo: SAE autonomy categories mean little to nothing and we should stop talking about them as some kind of design goal.
 
That's not the case with Tesla FSD. I got the HW3 computer for free on my Model 3. Others are getting free camera upgrades and HW3 computers on their Model S's and X's.

I am betting FSD will require HW4 and better cameras yet. I bet we get it for free.

But Full Self Driving will work in every edge and corner case. FSD will have to work in rainstorms, sleet, hail, snow, sunsets blinding the B pillar cameras, and leaves covering the pavement.

Physics prevents vision only from seeing through solids.
Level 5 wont be here until the Tesla can find the end of an In-N-Out car line that wraps around a corner and then navigates all the way through until a box of hambugers sits on my lap.
 
But there's equally a "HUGE" difference between a car that can reliably navigate across 20 miles of suburbs without intervention and one that lets you troll people on twitter if you happen to get stuck in traffic on one of the dozen or so blessed highways.

The former is worth $10k to me, the latter is just a dumb stunt. Yet (1) no one came up with a snazzy ranking system for the thing I actually wanted to buy, and (2) people (aided and abetted by pedantic classifiers like you and some of the others in this thread) insist that the snazzy ranking system that doesn't reflect what I want to purchase somehow means that the dumb toy does what my car can. And that's laughably wrong.

Ergo: SAE autonomy categories mean little to nothing and we should stop talking about them as some kind of design goal.
Value is subjective. Maybe we should take a survey of passengers in cars running FSD Beta to determine its value? You seem to asking for the SAE to become a version Consumer Reports that caters to your personal preferences.
The SAE taxonomy is not a ranking system. SAE L4+ is absolutely Tesla's design goal though, the same as every other AV company.