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Will there be some kind of run up before next weeks p&d release ?
I would suspect so, unless macros (impeachment, etc.) really dive. Even given the negative news of Solar City suit yesterday, I thought the impending delivery report would have provided more support. So anybody's call here. I'm reluctant to add to my core position unless this hits sub 200, but playing calls on the delivery report may be worth a shot.
 
I wanted to get in under $230 for awhile now but it fell so quick today so I didn’t bother. Don’t have a strong opinion now on what a bottom may be. Unless market rebounds tomorrow then $210 or $180 again most likely.
I am waiting for a SP below $210. No need to jump in too quickly and buy too high. Will spread my buying of LEAPs down to $177 or lower with patience. Waiting for RSI below 25. Current SP action does not look to me like it will rebound quickly. I feel like currently the momentum is gone or to the downside. It feels crazy that we are currently trading at these price levels given the progress we made during the last years. GLTA.
 
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Each time I buy a block to swing trade, I end up accumulating because it never seems fairly priced. The only time I make anything is writing puts from heavy short action. So much TSLA stock and bonds...

It's like being a cat lady.

FWIW, wrote 220 Oct 4 exp puts at $4.95 last Friday. Placed an order for calls end of day that was rejected after missing close by 18 seconds. Small gains better than no gains I suppose. Congrats to everyone who went long on stock or calls before today!
 
Bought Oct 4 calls yesterday. Good profit now, but thinking about holding through delivery. Yesterday was really a gift considering the impending deliveries report. Was shocked to see it go down so much, as well as to see it recover all of those losses the next two days. Crazy stock!!

If you're trading this stock, really the only way to make money is buying when everybody is selling and vice a versa. Otherwise just buy and hold.
 
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If you're trading this stock, really the only way to make money is buying when everybody is selling and vice a versa. Otherwise just buy and hold.

Totally true.

I have a core stock holding that I do not touch, ever, but I always keep dry powder to buy after a sudden big drop. TSLA has (too) many of those...

I'm never comfortable getting in when everybody's panicking, but it turns out it's mostly the right move.

That's why now I'm already itching to take some profits (I got into LEAPS that are up around 10-30%) since sentiment on TMC is that we're gonna crush deliveries and ER. That always scares me o_O
 
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FWIW, wrote 220 Oct 4 exp puts at $4.95 last Friday. Placed an order for calls end of day that was rejected after missing close by 18 seconds. Small gains better than no gains I suppose. Congrats to everyone who went long on stock or calls before today!

Closed the puts for $1 -> 80% profit of a small amount. Thinking about buying Oct 4 calls next week. What’s the earliest date for delivery numbers? Wed?
 
Totally true.

I have a core stock holding that I do not touch, ever, but I always keep dry powder to buy after a sudden big drop. TSLA has (too) many of those...

I'm never comfortable getting in when everybody's panicking, but it turns out it's mostly the right move.

That's why now I'm already itching to take some profits (I got into LEAPS that are up around 10-30%) since sentiment on TMC is that we're gonna crush deliveries and ER. That always scares me o_O

Although estimates may be beat, I say there is a real risk Of the market comparing year over year profit/loss.
 
Trading based on delivery numbers is typically easier if we climb further ahead of the release or if we go the other way. I would be contrarian to which ever way we go leading up. I think where we are right now is fairly neutral.
I was planning to buy some calls today - but IV went up from 50% to 60%. So, the 255 calls were $2 instead of $1.

And I missed the 12:20 dip ...

I expect the IV to be high enough just before the P&D that unless the SP moves $15, you won't make much money because of IV crash. So, better to buy today/tomorrow - but that increases the risk too.
 
Shorting Tesla @ 243.8
Isn't that a bit risky, given impending delivery numbers? Less risky to buy puts. I bought calls yesterday when the shares dipped, and bought some puts today on the move higher.

Maybe we'll get one more day to buy options before the report comes out. I've been pacing my option buying with pretty good luck thus far, getting decent prices.
 
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Isn't that a bit risky, given impending delivery numbers? Less risky to buy puts. I bought calls yesterday when the shares dipped, and bought some puts today on the move higher.

Maybe we'll get one more day to buy options before the report comes out. I've been pacing my option buying with pretty good luck thus far, getting decent prices.
This. Buying puts ahead of announcements would likely yield the best results. Market makers also don’t seem to care about max pain when puts are ITM. Calls ITM? Sell that *sugar* fast
 
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This. Buying puts ahead of announcements would likely yield the best results. Market makers also don’t seem to care about max pain when puts are ITM. Calls ITM? Sell that *sugar* fast
The recent daily candles look bearish (topping pattern), but the last weekly candle looks bullish. From a TA perspective, stock can go either way. And 240 is not too high or too low.

I have more calls than puts on the outside chance that we get a 105k print on the deliveries. Could then see a move to 265 or higher. If the numbers are bad, then I'll look forward to buying more shares sub 220. Win-win setup for me, unless it just stagnates at 240. I'm a little worried about the S,X numbers. If under 15k (per Troy), that could drop the stock, depending on the overall number.
 
No stock I really want to buy right now, but don’t want to be short here either. Just sitting tight doing nothing at the moment with my trading account. Mostly own bonds still in my retirement accounts.

Seems like most of any good news for deliveries should already be priced into TSLA ahead of its report. Unless they come out with a surprise pretty we above 100k, I don’t see upward movement following the delivery report now.