TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

Here are some reasonable Q2 earnings estimates:
Luv: -$3.38
Munster: -$3.09
Let's split the difference and go with -$3.24.

Consensus is -$2.79.

If Tesla misses like that, is that already priced into the stock price? Or does that allow analysts/shorts to ramp up the FUD and drive the stock down further?

Come on...you know they're going to ramp the FUD no matter what the earnings report says .

 

[BrianZ]

Here are some reasonable Q2 earnings estimates:
Luv: -$3.38
Munster: -$3.09
Let's split the difference and go with -$3.24.

Consensus is -$2.79.

If Tesla misses like that, is that already priced into the stock price? Or does that allow analysts/shorts to ramp up the FUD and drive the stock down further?

I would argue that this is not baked in. My reasoning is that in order for this to be baked in, you're assuming the market is rational to the valuation of Tesla (not saying market as a whole isn't rational), and therefore, made a rational price move to incorporate this. Clearly, the market is not rational when it comes to Tesla's stock price, especially with all the short activity. Otherwise it would price in the obvious growth and profitability of the Model 3 and the stock wouldn't be below $300 and rationally ignore the last bad Tesla quarter.

Therefore, due to irrationality, even if this is priced in, the shorts will drive it down further, and this time they will have much more legitimate "ammo" for driving the price down.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - after market close: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Shares Indicated Up 0.2% After Hours As Hearing CFRA Upgraded Stock From Sell To Hold

 

[CuriousSunbird]

My understanding is that if you buy shares of the company during chapter 11, it’s basically worthless and losses all it’s value once it’s out of chapter 11. Happened to Kmart buyers.

In Chapter 11 you have to buy the bonds, not the shares.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Regardless how TSLA moves in the near term, David Einhorn has been wrong on Tesla and Amazon, and he will continue to lose a lot of money if he can't figure out why he is wrong:

1. EV is not a niche market, EV vs. ICE is smart phone vs. analog phone. EV market will turn huge in the next 5~10 years. EVs are fundamentally better than ICEs. The performance is way better, the energy cost is much less, and it's way better for the environment and health.

2. A company's value is not determined by next year's P/E. It's determined by discounted future cashflow. Einhorn is completely wrong on Tesla's future cashflow, especially if you have a 10 year horizon.

3. Tesla is not an underdog. Instead, Tesla is a formidable competitor. Anything Elon Musk touches, that industry is turned upside down.

4. Tesla is a leading AI company. This will take him a while to understand.

5. Tesla Energy is not a zero. Instead, the whole world is about to find out solar + battery is better than coal, or diesel, or natural gas... Einhorn will learn the word "tipping point". Energy market is not small.

6. Shorting Tesla and Amazon showed Einhorn is dumb in regard of investment. That brings huge cost to his reputation. No amount of profit or loss can fix that damage. In my practice, once I find someone is dumb, he is on my dumb list. I don't bother to remove him from the list. There are enough smart people to focus on.

Extremely well stated. Totally agree. The number of dumb Wall Street billionaires like Einhorn, Chanos and Ackman is astounding. Luckily we have smart billionaires like Icahn and Ron Baron to counterbalance

 

[AudubonB]

Odd, I’ve seen estioof a 9% after prior ER’s, which is about $37, which seems like a lot, but reasonable.

So is that a synonym for “Alley-Oop”; is it a kissing cousin to “Whoopsie-Daisie”; or is it sui generis?

Inquiring minds really, really want to know.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA no idea why there is so much doom and gloom prior to tomorrow’s ER. Just a simple glance at long term weekly chart shows a super nice long term uptrend in place since January 2016 I stay super long and extremely heavily leveraged going into ER

 

[madodel]

More importantly if the lease is up on his Model S and he is expecting to get the I-pace soon, he may be without a car for a while since it appears that most of them have been delayed.

So are there trolls all over I-Pace forums claiming Jaguar is going bankrupt any day now because they can't build the car? Or is there no agenda to attack Jaguar with stupid inane conjecture? I suppose they are only obsessed with Tesla.

 

[brian45011]

Benzinga - after market close: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Shares Indicated Up 0.2% After Hours As Hearing CFRA Upgraded Stock From Sell To Hold

Again? Tesla upgraded to Hold by CFRA, but risks, valuation concerns persist

 

[bdy0627]

The market is forward looking. A bad ER is already priced in and a slightly worse one than expected isn't going to change that. Tesla will balance the bad numbers with lots of positives, maybe throw in some ZEVs, and we'll all start looking forward to the next delivery numbers.

There may be lots of longs looking to "Just get this ER out of the way and then get back in." In my experience, it's the ERs that you go into bracing for more pain that end up turning out nicely. When longs are afraid of what the big bad shorts are going to do, fear >> greed, that's a good time to buy. When we start gloating and mocking the shorts relentlessly, that's a good time to deleverage.

The stock is under 300 despite ~5000/week Model 3 and cash flow is near breakeven. Feels like I've been here before, in early 2013.

This rings quite true to me. Thanks.

 

[D-egg-O]

How Einhorn owned a Model S and still didn’t get it is beyond me. Also, the twitter trolls look up to him so much. I wonder why?

Regardless how TSLA moves in the near term, David Einhorn has been wrong on Tesla and Amazon, and he will continue to lose a lot of money if he can't figure out why he is wrong:

1. EV is not a niche market, EV vs. ICE is smart phone vs. analog phone. EV market will turn huge in the next 5~10 years. EVs are fundamentally better than ICEs. The performance is way better, the energy cost is much less, and it's way better for the environment and health.

2. A company's value is not determined by next year's P/E. It's determined by discounted future cashflow. Einhorn is completely wrong on Tesla's future cashflow, especially if you have a 10 year horizon.

3. Tesla is not an underdog. Instead, Tesla is a formidable competitor. Anything Elon Musk touches, that industry is turned upside down.

4. Tesla is a leading AI company. This will take him a while to understand.

5. Tesla Energy is not a zero. Instead, the whole world is about to find out solar + battery is better than coal, or diesel, or natural gas... Einhorn will learn the word "tipping point". Energy market is not small.

6. Shorting Tesla and Amazon showed Einhorn is dumb in regard of investment. That brings huge cost to his reputation. No amount of profit or loss can fix that damage. In my practice, once I find someone is dumb, he is on my dumb list. I don't bother to remove him from the list. There are enough smart people to focus on.

 

[kbM3]

intent to purchase model 3 at all time high "we can't speak to production but we can speak to demand"

Kevin Hincks on Twitter

One of the stupidest quotes ever from that video.

“Musk is first and foremost a salesman”.

What the hell? He is one of the most pre-eminent engineers/visionaries the world has ever seen.

How can anyone be so clueless?

 

[bdy0627]

Benzinga - after market close: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Shares Indicated Up 0.2% After Hours As Hearing CFRA Upgraded Stock From Sell To Hold

Interesting "upgrade," given that he is a short term skeptic. He was quoted earlier today in a MarketWatch article:
"Levy said he is a “short-term skeptic” on Tesla’s promises to become profitable in the second half of the year, and said he expects the company to tap capital markets in the first quarter of 2019 ahead of debt retirements early in the year."

Tesla earnings: Gear up for more drama after Model 3 production burst

 

[Sudre]

I am curious if Shorts are gathering ammo for after ER by barrowing shares and not dumping until after the ER. Is that Possible?

Also if my investment firm called me to let me know they are planning on a potential 30% move after ER then I would expect they are either getting ready to loan out a very large amount of shares to shorts to help facilitate the drop or they are planning on calling back shorted shares. They may not know themselves which way until after the CC.

 

[D-egg-O]

I am curious if Shorts are gathering ammo for after ER by barrowing shares and not dumping until after the ER. Is that Possible?

Also if my investment firm called me to let me know they are planning on a potential 30% move after ER then I would expect they are either getting ready to loan out a very large amount of shares to shorts to help facilitate the drop or they are planning on calling back shorted shares. They may not know themselves which way until after the CC.

30% doesn’t make sense. Wouldn’t option premiums be through the roof?

 

[BornToFly]

I can't believe nobody has said this yet -
Tomorrow will really, truly, obviously be the LAST time you can buy the stock below 300!....

(I really, really, really, really, really hope that's true, so I can start thinking about retirement already!)

 

[phil0909]

In a related article, it states that Einhorn actually leased and drove a Model S! And somehow still shorted TSLA.

David Einhorn Isn’t Renewing His Tesla Lease

At least the shorts who have never driven the car can claim ignorance, but to drive a Model S and still short the stock? Can’t imagine the cognitive dissonance he experienced during his daily commute.

(coolness of product) ≠ (excess of stock value over stock price)

 

[bdy0627]

Hmmm, Twitter shorts are gloating about the ER. Maybe I won't be trimming any calls tomorrow.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Regardless how TSLA moves in the near term, David Einhorn has been wrong on Tesla and Amazon, and he will continue to lose a lot of money if he can't figure out why he is wrong:

1. EV is not a niche market, EV vs. ICE is smart phone vs. analog phone. EV market will turn huge in the next 5~10 years. EVs are fundamentally better than ICEs. The performance is way better, the energy cost is much less, and it's way better for the environment and health.

2. A company's value is not determined by next year's P/E. It's determined by discounted future cashflow. Einhorn is completely wrong on Tesla's future cashflow, especially if you have a 10 year horizon.

3. Tesla is not an underdog. Instead, Tesla is a formidable competitor. Anything Elon Musk touches, that industry is turned upside down.

4. Tesla is a leading AI company. This will take him a while to understand.

5. Tesla Energy is not a zero. Instead, the whole world is about to find out solar + battery is better than coal, or diesel, or natural gas... Einhorn will learn the word "tipping point". Energy market is not small.

6. Shorting Tesla and Amazon showed Einhorn is dumb in regard of investment. That brings huge cost to his reputation. No amount of profit or loss can fix that damage. In my practice, once I find someone is dumb, he is on my dumb list. I don't bother to remove him from the list. There are enough smart people to focus on.

Oldie, but speaks of the character:
Einhorn, Greenlight fined for UK market abuse

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

We’re on the verge of semantics here.

Any bear, no matter how doubtful, should understand that Tesla could sell or spinoff their self-driving unit for an amount similar to what Intel paid for Mobileye. A bear could believe that a buyer of that unit was a sucker, but they should understand that the unit has substantial value.

I will disagree with you here, even-though I'm bull.
So I don't see why would bear buy your argument.