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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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People really have to stop reading into his mood based on tweets. I would not make any investments based on how happy you perceive someone. If I had Elon Musk's life I'd be pretty happy no matter how much the lunatic trolls, nutjobs, liars, and shorts attacked me or if I miss a self-imposed deadline by a month or 6.
This IS an advise.

I'm long TSLA, I have a Signature Model X and married to the love of my life, so even though I'm not Elon Musk I'm pretty freaking happy. I just wish I had the time so I could actually read all this stuff.
If you were Elon, you’d have stopped at $230M. I believe the success of Tesla does affect his mood - he was super stressed w M3 production hell etc. I think he’s v happy he’s found a way to get away form all the FUD. He cares about his mission to cut greenhouse gasses etc.
 
Elon threw quite a lot of shade at Buffett recently. And I'm no Buffett (or buffet) expert, but my impression is that Tesla is not at all the kind of company he invests in. I'd give the possibility <5% chance and think I'm being generous.

My money would be on Page/Alphabet, Apple, and/or one or two of the existing major shareholders. By the way, are we also betting on who's buying? Or just betting on TSLA?

Reading again Elon`s letter to Tesla employees,

this two sentences:
"Third, the intention is not to merge SpaceX and Tesla. They would continue to have separate ownership and governance structures...."

doesn't make sense unless Spacex (supported by.....) is the mysterious investor...
 
Whether it matters or not is speculation and guessing, since we don't know what structure for existing investors to stay in post-delisting. (Note that I have switched to saying "de-listing" rather than "going private".) However "accredited investor" is a real thing. You can't participate in IPOs or certain private offerings unless you're an accredited investor, which basically means (for individuals in the US):

That means reading the link that if the deal structure requires to be an AI all shareholders with a smaller income as stated or net worth are squeezed out taking some exceptions into account.

The normal Jo on the street with "normal income" who bought 10 or 100 shares would be for instance. IOW, the big guys win the small guys loose.

This is fully against Elons fundamental values and understanding how his smaller shareholders should be treated and against what he communicated via Twitter and in his letter to his employees including all shareholders.

Assuming he still would do it implies he either lied to all his employees and shareholder or he is dump and did make one of the most important announcement for Tesla without knowledge of a rule that you can read in Wikipedia.

I did never found him to be a liar no dump.

Therefore I believed he solved that issue already long before he announced the privatization and would not have if he would be forced to apply the AI rule w/o a good workaround
 
The rules about buying stock in a privately held corporation are bizzare, but they are there for a reason, to protect the "investor." Say your brother-in-law has a small software company that was formed as a C class corporation and you want to purchase some stock in it to help him out and hopefully make some money when Google buys it. Unless you are an accredited investor, you are prohibited from taking an equity position. That's meant to protect the little guy from a financial flim-flam man (what a great movie!) taking advantage of you. The SEC(?) assumes that an AI has enough experience to know whether or not they're being taken for a ride.

I was the CEO and one of the founders of a SW spinoff from one of the national labs back in the '90's and we had a situation where an incubator fund, even though they had invested earlier as a partner with another AI, was prohibited from investing by themselves because they were not an AI. It was a learning experience and a difficult one, as they didn't believe they couldn't buy stock in us... they thought we didn't want to reduce our ownership in the company but that wasn't the case at all. We ended up getting the funds needed through a loan from them, but our working relationship was never the same afterwards.

Anyway, just thought I'd share to give a real life example of why you need to be an AI when investing in privately traded firms.

It would be interesting to evaluate if “accredited investors” have been more a barrier then a protection mechanism for the “little guy.”

As this system funnels retail investors to the public stock market only, where big banks/funds get the first dibs on any new upstart before the public market.

Structurally, the little guy always gets seconds or whatever is sanctified by accredited investors who always get to benefit first off the rush of little guy investors when it goes public.
 
Most of us here know that Tesla’s value will continue to grow into the $420/share in the near future and then grow way beyond it. But right now, ‘today’, $420/share is fair.

If you really want to be part of TSLAP, then NOW is the time to get your ducks in a row and position yourself/prepare to position yourself to give you the best chance of being able to own TSLAP. This is what I’m doing.

I'm with you exactly! Prior to the "going private" announcement I only had TSLA in RRSP/TFSA accounts and those do not allow me to hold shares of foreign (to Canada) private companies. So I will have to cash out on those shares. Since then, I have opened another (taxed) investment account and bought as much TSLA as I can afford. Unfortunately, its only about 10% of the position I hold in my tax-free accounts, but I cannot justify (at least not to my personal finance minister, she wouldn't approve ;) ) to move funds out of those accounts and pay roughly 50% tax on them as a result.
 
I'm with you exactly! Prior to the "going private" announcement I only had TSLA in RRSP/TFSA accounts and those do not allow me to hold shares of foreign (to Canada) private companies. So I will have to cash out on those shares. Since then, I have opened another (taxed) investment account and bought as much TSLA as I can afford. Unfortunately, its only about 10% of the position I hold in my tax-free accounts, but I cannot justify (at least not to my personal finance minister, she wouldn't approve ;) ) to move funds out of those accounts and pay roughly 50% tax on them as a result.

You can withdraw from TFSA tax free.

RRSP is a different matter. Most of my generation has been taught the evils of RRSP and stayed away from it. Or taken some matters to mitigate the higher tax when you withdraw.
 
Umm, so, isn't the whole accredited investors thing moot because Elon said he wanted to create a special fund for us smaller investors?

Or has it been confirmed that Elon absolutely can not set up such a fund?
1. Yes he has said he wants to. "Wants" being key word. Or as he said "like" to.

2. Not confirmed but speculated as a high probability possibility.
 
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I suppose if a broker had a client that had elected to receive cash out, they would be in financial a position to take cash out payment from short in lieu of returning the stock.

yes

It get's trickier if a client has not yet decided or indicated whether they will take cash or private share for their common share. The broker would need to be in a position to supply whatever the client elected or an actual common share.

below is a general description of what goes on when a corp action takes place;
again, forget tesla and the private share option for a moment.

the broker is in that position that you suggested above (to supply the longs election)
their customers fully paid long shares are segged, unless enrolled in lending program. for these, id expect those customers would recall their shares. even if they don’t, they can still elect to exchange for whatever the offer terms are. same with their customers long margin shares. both are entitled to the offer terms.

say a broker is net 100 long shares;
50 fully paid and in lending program
100 margin
50 shares short customers.
- and all longs want to exchange in offer

let’s say 75 of the shares were lent out to counter parties. (50 from the fully paid guy and 25 from margin shares - which are free excess position at dtcc that broker has carte blanche with because they supplied the margin)

the leaves only 25 at dtcc
the other 50 long are offset against ahort internally

for the long elections, the broker can only elect 25 at dtcc.

to pay the remaining 75 long customers they will swap corp actions charges with collateral on the stock loan contracts, and colllect the rest from the internal short clients

So this exposes the broker to credit risk. I don't think a broker wants to find themselves in the position of being short on private Tesla shares, which is what they risk if they accept cash in lieu of an actual common share.

i don’t know where the credit risk is? it’s not from having shares loaned out when a corp action is going, as i explained above.

now, the real problem in the specific case of tesla is the private shares.

because of this option, i believe there has to be a way to structure the offer to force shorts out, because they obviously can’t be short private shares.

@Fact Checking for dell, what was it? if you didn’t participate you were just cashed out, and did not receive private shares??? i don’t remember that, specially but it seems the most simple explanation.

is it possible that tesla will book cash for all o/s on their books (i’ve said this before but wasn’t clear in my explanation)
...but for those electing private shares, the $420 is used to execute an exchange booking into the private shares?
meaning if you elected private shares you’d never actually see the cash. it’s just a bookkeeping thing. i’d like opinions on that

@MP3Mike you disagreed a couple times to what i was blabbering about earlier. i tried to explain my thoughts more clearly today that i wasn’t wrapped up in work. also @jhm @neroden @Fact Checking is that a possible outcome? i know you guys had some points about a street wide recall..
i’ve never actually seen that enforced for a corp action event (although you could easily argue that shorts would be wise to split). in a normal event when there’s new publicly traded shares the shorts sometimes just stay put and hedge around it, ending short the new stock (obv can’t do that here)

what i should really do is ask my friend to research dell and see if there were short positions still open when that privatization went effective. this might help explain.


also, side note, to clarify a comment i made yesterday in heat of moment, i don’t actually hope all shorts burn in hell apologies to the sensible ones and traders. it’s the lying, manipulating ones who are detrimental to society that have a special place in hell waiting. apologies again ;)
 
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Reading again Elon`s letter to Tesla employees,

this two sentences:
"Third, the intention is not to merge SpaceX and Tesla. They would continue to have separate ownership and governance structures...."

doesn't make sense unless Spacex (supported by.....) is the mysterious investor...

Damn when I first read that I just thought "weird" why Elon is writing that SpaceX&Tesla merge thing but just forgot about it few minutes later because so much was going on.

From Elon's perspective that makes a lot of sense - he is biggest shareholder in SpaceX with 78% voting power. Many investors are lined up for SpaceX but as Gwynne Shotwell said they can be picky.

Maybe Tesla investor is SpaceX funded by investment not in Tesla but in SpaceX??? It would be brilliant move by Elon - he will maintain over 50% voting power in SpaceX and allow in investors to SpaceX with Tesla included.

Tesla and SpaceX share many tech and ideas - they together could build up new type of transportation/communication conglomerate (SpaceX is going to revolutionize long distance air travel on Earth and beyond + wordwide Internet access).

In future SpaceX will have more common with Tesla - because SpaceX is going to satellite production/operation industry - there will be huge amount of electronics&software&AI work.
 
thought this interesting:
"As a private company, Tesla would only be able to sell new shares to institutions and individuals who have annual income of at least $200,000 or a minimum net worth of $1 million, not including their primary residence. But federal securities laws do allow smaller investors to retain stakes in public companies that decide to go private, said Erik Weingold, an attorney who specializes in private placements. States also have provisions that permit existing investors in a private company to continue buying its shares, even if they don’t meet the income or net worth thresholds, Weingold said."
wwwdotbloombergdotcom/news/articles/2018-08-09/how-elon-musk-s-spacex-may-be-a-road-map-for-tesla-going-private
 
WEEKEND MODERATION -

First, there has been, as expected and as appropriate, a considerable amount of postings regarding the continued misleading and just plain wrong information coming from any number of news sources. Now, although a lot of that has been in the articles’ headlines rather than the stories themselves, that is a topic for another time.

The point is - - - - most unfortunately but also UNNECESSARILY - - - - there also has been a plethora of that emanating within this thread’s posts (and in other “Investor” threads, too). Yes, we Moderators are aware that a good amount of that has been from those who wish Tesla ill; that we deal with separately.

It is the other kinds of posts that are the problem addressed here. Everyone is excited; most everyone is confused (and the few who aren’t probably ought to be.....); many have opinions. MOST of you are posting somewhere between twice and five or even ten times the amount that you “should” be.

Now, Moderators are not going to initiate some kind of daily posting limit (ooooh, how I’d love to do that.....). Here is a Modest Proposal, however. Aside from having each of you sit on your collective hands rather than responding to each and every post that titillates you one way or another, and from asking the SAME QUESTIONS for the umpteenth time, and most importantly of all, stating in dogmatic fashion something that is absolutely nothing more than a belief of yours - and so many times one without any evidence backing it up -

Then HOLD OFF! Or, most specifically in that lattermost case, write that you are presenting your opinion, your thought, your belief...your hope. If you do not do so, you are as guilty of obfuscation as all but the most incorrigible of the FUD-makers.

Finally, write succinctly and write CLEARLY. A rule of the TMC forum is that grammar and spelling mistakes are not cause for correction. Unfortunately, by extension, so also is the case with bad (read: contorted, illogical, and in general stream-of-unconsciousness writing ofttimes typed by someone who just can’t wait to let everyone else know his or her inchoate thoughts).

Is what you are going to post advancing the tenor of this thread? If not, please don’t post. Jokes and so forth - especially mine - remain fertile ground, of course.
 
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Possible, but Google is public also and arguably a good bit of Tesla would be material to Google and still require various disclosure. I don't think it will acquisition by a public co. But possible.

Perhaps friendly billionaires personally rather than the public companies they own.


Larry Page is a friendly billionaires personally! Not Google! Larry can borrow against his Google shares as much as he wants!
 
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I'm with you exactly! Prior to the "going private" announcement I only had TSLA in RRSP/TFSA accounts and those do not allow me to hold shares of foreign (to Canada) private companies. So I will have to cash out on those shares. Since then, I have opened another (taxed) investment account and bought as much TSLA as I can afford. Unfortunately, its only about 10% of the position I hold in my tax-free accounts, but I cannot justify (at least not to my personal finance minister, she wouldn't approve ;) ) to move funds out of those accounts and pay roughly 50% tax on them as a result.

Could you take out a personal loan/line of credit at a low enough interest rate, use it all for the new fund and buy another 90%, cash out just enough RRSP TSLA at current market to pay the credit/loan interest rate each month until selling balance at the $420, pay your 50% tax and then use the other 50% to pay back the credit/loan? Or some sort of combination?
 
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Welp. I’ve been following every post in this thread since the going private tweet.

I went from admiring Elon from a far to purchasing a model S with delivery about 3 weeks ago.

Almost all of my investing is contributing to my 401k and diversifying through the options that my company provides.

The only thing outside of that was purchasing 50 shares of Facebook on IPO day. I didnt get IPO price but pretty close to it. All 50 are in my name and I don’t plan on touching them for a long time regardless.


So now thanks to this thread and how much I love my car, I have purchased 50 shares directly of TSLA in my name. My plan is to go the long haul and stay with TSLA if it goes private.

I believe in what Elon and company are doing. I’ve helped by buying the Model S and a tiny portion of shares to call my own. Now it’s all fun and games to ride the wave.

Thanks for all the great opinions on both sides.
 
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