TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Chocochip]

I only watched the last half hour of the JRE interview, so my comments below are based on only that, but I'm not too excited about it. It seemed like EM was not his usual funny, nerdy, relaxed self; to me he looked a lot more self-conscious, almost as if being who he is is painful to him, both due to how he experiences life and because of how his actions are perceived and spun by the wider public. I'm thinking it could be caused by the fact that Joe Rogan is a comedian and you don't really try to out-joke a comedian, also his interviewing style seemed a bit more irreverent and abrasive than what EM usually gets - mind you, at first I thought this was a good thing, but now it seems to me it may have inhibited Elon. It looked a bit like the popular high school jock being amazed by the intellectual prowess of the nerdy kid, with the nerdy kid trying hard to look cool to fit in. It's probably not that and it's just EM being tired and not particularly comfortable with this guy who he has just met and who's a bit over the top for him...

Anyway, I'll watch the whole thing later today and hopefully it will look different. The point of this rant is that I'm starting to get a bit worried for Elon's overall state of mind. By that I just mean he looks unhappy and stressed out, and possibly not being able at the moment to escape that state.

 

[Truthsetter]

True volume on NASDAQ pre market trading was less than 2k shares in a single sell - much of the dip got recovered on buying of ~8k shares.

It's still extremely low volume and I'd say corresponds more to the dip NASDAQ futures took overnight (much of that recovered too meanwhile).

People just sold over 300'000 shares on the german market under 240 euro. Please.

 

[Truthsetter]

I only watched the last half hour of the JRE interview, so my comments below are based on only that, but I'm not too excited about it. It seemed like EM was not his usual funny, nerdy, relaxed self; to me he looked a lot more self-conscious, almost as if being who he is is painful to him, both due to how he experiences life and because of how his actions are perceived and spun by the wider public. I'm thinking it could be caused by the fact that Joe Rogan is a comedian and you don't really try to out-joke a comedian, also his interviewing style seemed a bit more irreverent and abrasive than what EM usually gets - mind you, at first I thought this was a good thing, but now it seems to me it may have inhibited Elon. It looked a bit like the popular high school jock being amazed by the intellectual prowess of the nerdy kid, with the nerdy kid trying hard to look cool to fit in. It's probably not that and it's just EM being tired and not particularly comfortable with this guy who he has just met and who's a bit over the top for him...

Anyway, I'll watch the whole thing later today and hopefully it will look different. The point of this rant is that I'm starting to get a bit worried for Elon's overall state of mind. By that I just mean he looks unhappy and stressed out, and possibly not being able at the moment to escape that state.

The begin was okay - to the end the interview just got worse. Elon did talk lesser over time in the interview and was more tired and not funny.

 

[gora321]

Last ratings:

 

[gora321]

The begin was okay - to the end the interview just got worse. Elon did talk lesser over time in the interview and was more tired and not funny.

Is this important for TSLA? You never got tired?

 

[Chocochip]

The begin was okay - to the end the interview just got worse. Elon did talk lesser over time in the interview and was more tired and not funny.

Ok, that's good to know. It's just that, after reading those excerpts of the NYT interview a few weeks ago it almost seemed like EM is using these interviews as some sort of counselling sessions where he gets to spill his guts about what troubles him (I know that interview was made to look worse and more dramatic than it probably actually was), but the stuff I saw earlier kinda reinforced that feeling for me. Like these interviews are his only opportunity to really talk about how he feels, and he gets too personal for his own benefit. Either way, I hope to see Elon back to his usual cheerful self as soon as possible!

 

[gora321]

That is not manipulation my friend - that is people being afraid of a crazy CEO. down 10%

1. I'm not you friend
2. So many people in just one moment decided to sell?
3. You are underestimate opponent

 

[Truthsetter]

My prediction is that the stock will plunge really hard today to a new low of around 265$ before going back to 270.

 

[Jayjs20]

My prediction is that you just added yourself to several people's ignore list. I swear, all you new account shorts, and I bet there isn't more than 2 of you between all your accounts, is making this place unbearable, no pun intended.

 

[WarpedOne]

People please write down who you are replaying to.
Even better, quote them so if I ignored the person I will also ignore your reply to him.

Without it this whole thread looks like random letters.

 

[Boomer19]

Ok, that's good to know. It's just that, after reading those excerpts of the NYT interview a few weeks ago it almost seemed like EM is using these interviews as some sort of counselling sessions where he gets to spill his guts about what troubles him (I know that interview was made to look worse and more dramatic than it probably actually was), but the stuff I saw earlier kinda reinforced that feeling for me. Like these interviews are his only opportunity to really talk about how he feels, and he gets too personal for his own benefit. Either way, I hope to see Elon back to his usual cheerful self as soon as possible!

how do you know what he’s normally like?

 

[gora321]

Next manipulation-pay attention to the volume spikes:

 

[Truthsetter]

Someone just sold 100'000 shares at 237

 

[YasB]

Imho, the question is not, whether it's legal to smoke weed in whatever jurisdiction he is, when he is doing so. It might also be not very important, if potential buyers of Tesla products are fine with that or not, since those are not the majority of shareholders. And last but not least, it doesn't really matter, if he was high when he was tweeting certain things. From my perspective the main problem is, that in a time when the company experiences troubles to keep up with their plans and guidance, confidence seems to be fading and the CEOs image has been scratched, he is appearing as if he doesn't give a *sugar* about how he is comming across. That's not what i would want to see in a company i'm long.

Anyway, i increased my position this morning at around $283 and also pulled the stop loss for half of it a bit closer to something around $295.

 

[Truthsetter]

Was listening to it again and all that comes to my mind:

a) Elon has changed significantly since the last interviews (publicly held) to the negative -> more stressed and depressed / doesnt have any more answers, laughs seldom

b) Elon is deeply concerned about something in his life and distracted - whatever it is (I am guessing SEC investigations, lawsuits, TESLA etc.)

For me, the interview was an absolute negative and Elon should have not made this interview. It just showed a "broken Elon Musk" and this is not what shareholders want to see. He is still alive - yes - but he truly seems to be depressed and concernced about something deeply. This is an alarm signal.

 

[Ludalicious]

Stock trending down. Elon, why did you need to smoke weed?.... think of investors

LOL Agreed. Not too professional. The 420 crowd isn't exactly the target market for the 100-200k Vehicle. Or is it? LOL

 

[Cohiba]

He is still alive - yes - but he truly seems to be depressed and concernced about something deeply. This is an alarm signal.

No it's not. He is under stress and probably was nervous for the podcast. No reason to scream apocalypse.
I was happy that friends were sending him messages after he smoked. He has friends by his side, which is very important in difficult times.

 

[Chocochip]

how do you know what he’s normally like?

I don't know the man personally, if that's what you mean. I believe the majority of posters here - as well as on various other online platforms that express opinions, either positive or negative, on EM - also don't. I only know his general demeanour based on previous public appearances and interviews he gave throughout the years. His recent attitude seems more somber than previously, and he seems to more frequently bring up how difficult it is for him to manage things.

In case your troll-radar got triggered, let me clarify: I, along with many others, am invested long in TSLA for two main reasons:
1. I believe the world will inevitably transition to electric-based transport, and I think Tesla is at the forefront of that transition in terms of innovation and drive.
2. I see Elon Musk as key to both of those innovation and drive components, and I think it is important that the man in charge doesn't burn himself out early, for his sake as well as for the health of the company he runs; this is a constant worry for me. If he's in good shape, I have no doubt Tesla the company will be in good shape.

I think he only has one speed, and that's Ludicrous, but as we all know, that may lead to premature wear of certain key components. I'm not gonna be one of those that say "Hey, Elon, do some sleep therapy, smell the flowers, etc."; I think cutting himself completely from his work would actually be detrimental for him. I also don't think it's the work itself that got him so low, it's possible the constant negative feedback he's exposed to and that he possibly takes too seriously; I wish he had someone close that he could talk to on a daily basis, to vent if nothing else. It gets lonely at the top, I'm told.

 

[Matias]

Sure. Pick your largest tech companies Apple, Facebook, etc. and look at their P/E ratios. They are all in the low-mid double digits despite earning $billions. If Tesla had a $1/share annual profit in 2018 after two profitable quarters we could see a P/E ratio in the mid-hundreds (300-400). Once that becomes comparable to huge companies like the big techs people would realize how overvalued Tesla would be AT THAT POINT IN TIME. Those analysts who see the same thing see a pullback to the high $100's to low $200's, and then a growth in SP again from there tied to the P/E ratio at a more balanced rate. I do not see Tesla ever being compared to other automakers who all have single-digit to very low double-digit ratios. My gang also sees more dilution ahead pulling down the SP before the long ramp up. That is when we plan to go long. Linking to a measuring stick, so to speak, should also end the violent swings in share price. That should send short sellers off to other stocks to plunder.

The best analogy I can give is shifting from first to second gear in a car (with a manual transmission). A brief drop in RPM before the next gear propels the car forward at a higher speed but lower RPM, getting back to that high RPM again at a faster speed.

P/E/G

I'm not an expert, but forward looking PEG<1 would not be crazy high?

 

[MXWing]

One puff out of curiosity / while on the spot does not make you a stoner.

Elon is out of his comfort zone obviously that is plain for everyone to see. He doesn't have pro pot smoking skills. He's essentially as inept at pot smoking as BMW is inept at making attractive EVs.

However, it's going to be blown way out of proportion for those who seek to harm Elon and Tesla.

It was really an anti-marijuana spot for a non imbecile. It doesn't do anything "for him", if anything he thinks it would interfere with his productivity.