TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I didn't see it, but I see weird drops every once and awhile even during hours... after Monday, who knows?

Yes, I think today there were attempts by shorts to pressure-sell TSLA to mark down the price ('spike-selling') - the free liquidity was happily lapped up by competing buy interest.

If this continues tomorrow then shorts will have to think of a plan B - their primary weapon of pressure selling into a thin market doesn't seem to be working anymore, 8 trading days before the Q3 production/delivery report.

Now that I think about it, shorts wasted their plan B yesterday already. Do they have a plan C?

 

[sundaymorning]

So when can we expect Elon to tweet the DOJ and call investigators “”pedos”?

I need to buy more.

 

[TradingInvest]

Yes, I think today there were attempts by shorts to pressure-sell TSLA to mark down the price ('spike-selling') - the free liquidity was happily lapped up by competing buy interest.

If this continues tomorrow then shorts will have to think of a plan B - their primary weapon of pressure selling into a thin market doesn't seem to be working anymore, 8 trading days before the Q3 production/delivery report.

Now that I think about it, shorts wasted their plan B yesterday already. Do they have a plan C?

A while back I saw there were lots of Put Options expiring on Sep 21, 2018. More than 300,000 Puts. I thought shorts would do something to fight for it. They tried a few times, seems to me yesterday was their last try and failed.

 

[BenPrice]

Yes, I think today there were attempts by shorts to pressure-sell TSLA to mark down the price ('spike-selling') - the free liquidity was happily lapped up by competing buy interest.

If this continues tomorrow then shorts will have to think of a plan B - their primary weapon of pressure selling into a thin market doesn't seem to be working anymore, 8 trading days before the Q3 production/delivery report.

Now that I think about it, shorts wasted their plan B yesterday already. Do they have a plan C?

Close their position.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Ha, I love this:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-tesla-inc-stock-jumped-210500947.html

I love how they call it surprising that the SP shrugged off negative articles. At some point, when we keep hearing the same people screaming about a wolf and the wolf never shows up, we tune them out.

 

[Thekiwi]

So a funny thing happened - I included this chart on a tweet yesterday, and then this morning Elon Musk liked it, and as of now it has had over half a million views in about 6 hours.

I will consider this my annual contribution to the bull cause.

Kirk Burgess on Twitter

Wow - My tweet really blew up in the 24 hours since Elon liked it!

1.5 million views!

I’m not saying it had any impact on todays 5% share price rise, but I’m not not saying that

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do they have a plan C?

Oh they're on it already: "Elon must go!" is their steady chant.

To which I reply "Go, ELON!"

 

[ZachF]

Leaving Tesla St. Louis right now.

Told they’ve beaten their “most deliveries in a month” all time by 500%. Said their previous best month was 60 and they’re over 450 right now.

New car area packed, lot packed, neighboring business lot packed.

 

[winfield100]

Fundamentals ~ Charts 101

Take a look at the InsideEVs monthly chart, if you have a moment. Tesla starts by selling from the top down, but I read the chart from the bottom up. Also review, time permitting, articles recently published about there being relatively no competition for Tesla. Also, if you are really bored, read about ICE auto makers touting their look at me EV line up. I am a slow reader, and been in hiding for awhile.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
It was a good recovery day!

@DragonWatch
using inside EV's data for 2017 and 2018, note the increase AND decreases
ALL OF 2017

FIRST 8 Months of 2018, Bolt is fading just a bit it seems

im eagerly awaiting September numbers

 

[dmckinstry]

neroden: Great idea. Based upon my 10 years in govt and 30 harassing govt I think a "Tip" to the SEC from one or two private retail investors (as discussed above by KarenRei) is unlikely to get any attention. However a well-thought out more formal complaint signed by many may at least garner some attention. It also strikes me that the circumstantial case is strengthened by a pattern. What I am going to suggest to Int Prof will require some help to strengthen the complaint. I hope you can find a little time to help.

How can we add a signature electronically? Print out a copy of the letter, sign it, scan it, and send it as an e-mail attachment?
I suspect most of the longs on this forum would add their names.

 

[gene]

Wow - My tweet really blew up in the 24 hours since Elon liked it!

1.5 million views!

I’m not saying it had any impact on todays 5% share price rise, but I’m not not saying that

Yes, the power of being retweeted by Elon. He retweeted my only tweet ever. Last I looked a few days ago it was at 5,600,000.

 

[sunhelm]

I now christian Bob Lutz as Bob Lols.

Seriously. F this guy

On Elon retweeting the Lolz CNBC interview:

Lolz: "Fancy a graveyard visit?"
EM: " I mean, No more shorts? Sure!"

 

[LordAstinus]

A while back I saw there were lots of Put Options expiring on Sep 21, 2018. More than 300,000 Puts. I thought shorts would do something to fight for it. They tried a few times, seems to me yesterday was their last try and failed.

Shush! Two days left... Remember they excel at manufacturing, batching and delivering FUD at our door without touching hell in the process...

 

[Fact Checking]

A while back I saw there were lots of Put Options expiring on Sep 21, 2018. More than 300,000 Puts. I thought shorts would do something to fight for it. They tried a few times, seems to me yesterday was their last try and failed.

Are you certain? That's 30 million shares short equivalent... That's a lot of money ...

Depending on the balance to calls on that date, the market makers who have written those options might now have a couple of million TSLA shares short on inventory, as a hedge against those PUTs, even if the options are out of the money. As the options expire worthless the market makers will re-balance their hedges and liquidate those short positions...

That should add quite some buying pressure as the expiry date gets closer. Do you know the average strike price by any chance?

 

[geneclean55]

Are you certain? That's 30 million shares short equivalent... That's a lot of money ...

Depending on the balance to calls on that date, the market makers who have written those options might now have a couple of million TSLA shares short on inventory, as a hedge against those PUTs, even if the options are out of the money. As the options expire worthless the market makers will re-balance their hedges and liquidate those short positions...

That should add quite some buying pressure as the expiry date gets closer. Do you know the average strike price by any chance?

Yes...you are reading that correctly. About 100,000 puts at 50 dollar strike are about to expire worthless.

 

[TradingInvest]

Shush! Two days left... Remember they excel at manufacturing, batching and delivering FUD at our door without touching hell in the process...

When they rig it, my answer is 2021 Call Options. This stock has a floor, I don't care about their FUD. I think shorts are weak. What if this recent island reversal turns out to be a real one? That would be fun, they can stay on the island for the next 10 years.

 

[winfield100]

A while back I saw there were lots of Put Options expiring on Sep 21, 2018. More than 300,000 Puts. I thought shorts would do something to fight for it. They tried a few times, seems to me yesterday was their last try and failed.

@TradingInvest
is this significant?

 

[Fact Checking]

Close their position.

It looks like that's not an option for about ~30m shares short interest: those are the "permashorts" who kept their short position open for 1-2 years, while the stock was in the $250-$380 range.

Another weird thing is that only about half of the 35m short interest seems to have deep out of the money long term call option hedges. The convertible notes offer about 2.5m more hedges in principle.

How is the rest, more than 10m TSLA short position protected against sudden rises? If they are truly non-hedged and leveraged, that seems awfully risky to me.

 

[Unpilot]

It looks like that's not an option for about ~30m shares short interest: those are the "permashorts" who kept their short position open for 1-2 years, while the stock was in the $250-$380 range.

Another weird thing is that only about half of the 35m short interest seems to have deep out of the money long term call option hedges. The convertible notes offer about 2.5m more hedges in principle.

How is the rest, more than 10m TSLA short position protected against sudden rises? If they are truly non-hedged and leveraged, that seems awfully risky to me.

Once you convince yourself that Tesla is a scam and Elon is a liar who is going to jail...well then you might not consider it a risk.

Me...I'm long and I'm strong...and I'm looking forward to putting the hurten on.

 

[geneclean55]

@TradingInvest
is this significant?
View attachment 336470

I am not an expert on the mechanics. Luvb2b is the expert on this. But hedge flow with sp over 300 should support upward movement with all those puts at 300. Also, next big option wall after 300 is 320.