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Thankfully, next week the market can focus on the fundamentals of car production and sales, rather than the overhyped sideshow of what “funding secured” means.
But even the Q3 numbers are a sideshow. The real news this quarter has been about the product: it’s a winner in every dimension, including safety. At the same time the competition is announcing products that don’t match up.
It is impossible to predict when the market will wake up to that reality. But it will. It could be this week, it could be next year. So I remain long, with in the money LEAPs to provide a modest amount of leverage.
Not investment advice. Just don’t let the daily drama let you lose the forest for the trees. At the forest level, Tesla is flying ahead.
But even the Q3 numbers are a sideshow. The real news this quarter has been about the product: it’s a winner in every dimension, including safety. At the same time the competition is announcing products that don’t match up.
It is impossible to predict when the market will wake up to that reality. But it will. It could be this week, it could be next year. So I remain long, with in the money LEAPs to provide a modest amount of leverage.
Not investment advice. Just don’t let the daily drama let you lose the forest for the trees. At the forest level, Tesla is flying ahead.
With that interview and when you see who Elon has retained
Musk has hired Stephen Best at Brown Rudnick, who successfully defended internet billionaire Mark Cuban in an insider trading case, according to people familiar with the plans who also asked not to be identified. He also hired former Assistant U.S. Attorney Chris Clark of Latham & Watkins to defend him in the case, the people said.
I will give it 95/5 to Elon
Musk has hired Stephen Best at Brown Rudnick, who successfully defended internet billionaire Mark Cuban in an insider trading case, according to people familiar with the plans who also asked not to be identified. He also hired former Assistant U.S. Attorney Chris Clark of Latham & Watkins to defend him in the case, the people said.
I will give it 95/5 to Elon
right before they cut him off, I love how he's exasperated saying "he raises money for this company ALL THE TIME, it fits right in with his track record"
Bravo! This sounds very reasonable. Elon’s billions + saudis billions = funding (verbally) secured. Elon can win this in court 8 years from today.
Next week it will be all about delivery numbers. Margin will increase due to favorable AWD and P3D mix. And about how autopilot V9 will make people super excited. And about full self driving testing rolled out to tesla employees. Cutting edge stuff! SEC news will slowly fade into the background, and Tsla will get back to $300. Then Nov Q3 ER will show M3 margin higher than 15% with an awesome Q4 guidance that would bring us back into the low $300.
-14% drop on fear of losing Elon as CEO is sort of expected. My guess stock price last night was pretty good ($260-$285 range vs $260-$278). Further analysis, consensus is this will take years and Elon would have the upper hand in court. He could also settle with SEC any day if they can work it out amd stock will pop.
With this, I would say Monday will be an another opportunity to add more shares. Tsla should be above $300 after Q3 ER and higher after Q4. There are a lot of bull money who will jump in when the stock stabilizes.
Hold strong longs. Go refinance your house ASAP and triple down...ok don’t do it, but Don’t sell at these low levels for a huge loss. It will come back up soon, because there is a sign:
Elon Musk on Twitter
dqd88
Member
Please pay attention also to war between medias. All medias are fighting for their market share. And when one of most famous CEO use Twitter for important info, there is a red alert in the legacy media supported by legacy industries. Means less $ for them.
43k down the drain today. Biggest loss in one day so far.
I'm always annoyed when it drops like this and I don't have any dry powder to buy some more.
I'm always annoyed when it drops like this and I don't have any dry powder to buy some more.
dqd88
Member
I agree. The more Tesla info I digest the more optimistic I get. Today was tough. But it's become clear that the SEC case is tilting in Elon's favor.
I've always believed Elon was being truthful. The tweet was ill-timed, and not optimal, but truthful. THERE IS NO FRAUD.
I combed through every word from that tweet to the subsequent blog posts, through the complaint. The details matter. There's literally not a single piece of fraud anywhere (unless we're all being duped, which we're not).
There is one mistake he made - not forewarning the NASDAQ of the tweet. He will be rightfully fined for that and gladly pay. Then we will put this all behind.
(and I can't see the DOJ having a case)
Stay strong. We have to rally behind Elon. We're are so close to an inflection point in the electrification timeline. The future is inches away.
dqd88
Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
In case anybody needs a reminder, TSLA is on sale right now. 50% discount vs Intrinsic Value based on 5-year cash flows:
( from Tesla (Nasdaq:TSLA) - Share price, News & Analysis free reg.req.)
( from Tesla (Nasdaq:TSLA) - Share price, News & Analysis free reg.req.)
cheshire cat
Member
Yes then take the number of cars in that period x avg' value and divide by interest rate = cost of system/ loss of interest on capital/operating cost, must be considerable sum over a year, If not to the company then in terms of value of product to customer vs: final price paid. And don't forget all the advertising you paid for as the end consumer too.
cheshire cat
Member
engle
Member
Here's an encouraging end-of-Q3 delivery crunch "all hands on deck" data point:
I just returned from the Fremont Delivery Center (FDC).
While I was there, I overheard one employee tell another one they delivered almost 250 vehicles on Friday, and are scheduled to deliver 450 more on Saturday alone! That's 3+X+S I assume.
This doesn't count the people who get home deliveries out of the Kato Road "Tesla Direct" location. There are tons of cars there, too, and many people working out of that facility. I swung by it on my way to FDC. I also saw cars stashed in other parking lots around town when I drove there from my home in S. Fremont. One lot had 10's of Tesla's with their emergency flashers on. They told me it is a semaphore used to indicate the vehicle needs to be brought over to FDC. (The shorts would probably tell you those are the ones that need rework!)
My family and I were the last customers to leave around Friday 9/28 midnight with a Model 3 AWD+EAP. I had time to go through the entire checklist and couldn't find any issues while waiting for paperwork since they had to match me to a VIN right there after "Tesla Direct" home delivery stood me up earlier that afternoon. So far, it's awesome! Model 3: A+ Fremont Deliver Center: A+ "Tesla Direct": F
I just returned from the Fremont Delivery Center (FDC).
While I was there, I overheard one employee tell another one they delivered almost 250 vehicles on Friday, and are scheduled to deliver 450 more on Saturday alone! That's 3+X+S I assume.
This doesn't count the people who get home deliveries out of the Kato Road "Tesla Direct" location. There are tons of cars there, too, and many people working out of that facility. I swung by it on my way to FDC. I also saw cars stashed in other parking lots around town when I drove there from my home in S. Fremont. One lot had 10's of Tesla's with their emergency flashers on. They told me it is a semaphore used to indicate the vehicle needs to be brought over to FDC. (The shorts would probably tell you those are the ones that need rework!)
My family and I were the last customers to leave around Friday 9/28 midnight with a Model 3 AWD+EAP. I had time to go through the entire checklist and couldn't find any issues while waiting for paperwork since they had to match me to a VIN right there after "Tesla Direct" home delivery stood me up earlier that afternoon. So far, it's awesome! Model 3: A+ Fremont Deliver Center: A+ "Tesla Direct": F
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Mark Cuban SEC case appeared to tak e five years ex Wikipedia
On November 17, 2008, it was reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a civil suit against Cuban relating to alleged insider trading in the shares of Mamma.com, now known as Copernic.[70] A stock dilution occurred shortly after a trade in June 2004, giving hints of inside knowledge at the time of the trade, and Cuban allegedly was saved from a loss of $750,000.[71] The SEC claimed that Cuban ordered the sale of his holdings in Mamma.com after he had been confidentially approached by the company to participate in a transaction likely to dilute shares of current shareholders. Cuban disputed the charges, saying he had not agreed to keep the information secret.[72] On his blog, Cuban contended the facts were false and that the investigation was "a product of gross abuse of prosecutorial discretion".[73] DealBook, a section of The New York Times, reported through an anonymous source that Cuban believed the investigation was motivated by an SEC employee having taken offense to his interest in possibly distributing the film Loose Change.[74]
In July 2009, the U.S. District Court dismissed the charges against Cuban, and the SEC appealed. In September 2010, an appeals court said that the district court had erred and that further proceedings would be necessary to address the merits of the suit.[75]
A federal jury in Texas found in favor of Cuban on October 16, 2013.[76] The nine-member jury issued the verdict after deliberating 3 hours and 35 minutes.[77]
This Elon case may just fade into the distance
On November 17, 2008, it was reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a civil suit against Cuban relating to alleged insider trading in the shares of Mamma.com, now known as Copernic.[70] A stock dilution occurred shortly after a trade in June 2004, giving hints of inside knowledge at the time of the trade, and Cuban allegedly was saved from a loss of $750,000.[71] The SEC claimed that Cuban ordered the sale of his holdings in Mamma.com after he had been confidentially approached by the company to participate in a transaction likely to dilute shares of current shareholders. Cuban disputed the charges, saying he had not agreed to keep the information secret.[72] On his blog, Cuban contended the facts were false and that the investigation was "a product of gross abuse of prosecutorial discretion".[73] DealBook, a section of The New York Times, reported through an anonymous source that Cuban believed the investigation was motivated by an SEC employee having taken offense to his interest in possibly distributing the film Loose Change.[74]
In July 2009, the U.S. District Court dismissed the charges against Cuban, and the SEC appealed. In September 2010, an appeals court said that the district court had erred and that further proceedings would be necessary to address the merits of the suit.[75]
A federal jury in Texas found in favor of Cuban on October 16, 2013.[76] The nine-member jury issued the verdict after deliberating 3 hours and 35 minutes.[77]
This Elon case may just fade into the distance
Tesla has gone from a garage start-up to $50b, sorry, $42b capital value in a relatively short time. Their products are in huge demand. The brand has become one of the most aspirational on the planet. They're making record deliveries right now and ramping nicely. They are likely to be profitable now and for the future.
Why would I want to change anything?
You can argue that Elon's eccentricity is negatively effecting the SP. That may be so, but artificially so, thanks to the short sellers.
In reality, Elon being Elon is a huge asset as people that matter - prospective Tesla purchasers - relate to it and like it.
Tesla are so successful BECAUSE they don't follow the normal path. I want that to continue, even if we get ridiculous situations like this from time to time.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Note how significant that interview is: as a former SEC senior counsel he also has ultimate insight into the weak points of the SEC's legal strategy and statutory authority than most other lawyers commenting on this have - let alone that of non-lawyer commentators.
I pointed out some of those possible weaknesses in earlier comments, but there might be more which the former SEC counsel is probably not allowed to disclose due to work product and attorney-client privilege. I do believe the SEC wants out of this lawsuit as quickly as possible, they don't want this to go to trial, at all.
I'm quite certain that's not what the CNBC anchors wanted to hear though.
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The market reacts negatively to uncertainty. So it would objectively have been better if Elon Musk had first consulted with his legal team along the lines of:
"I am considering delisting Tesla or taking it private in some form. To what extent will it be possible for current investors to keep their stock?"
- and then either not tweet at all or communicate something more substantial.
I have to assume he did not inform himself sufficiently on matter since the resourceful Ark Invest appealed to him not to go forward with the deal, exactly because it would preclude a number of current investors from remaining with Tesla and that this contributed to him cancelling the attempt.
It is still possible that some preparation for a deal had been ongoing and that the revelation of the Saudi buy-in (on the open market) and its effect on the stock price forced his hand.
So I am not even convinced that his tweets were reckless, they may very well have been what he considered the least bad reaction to the timing of events beyond his control.
Anyway, it is very true that Musk's "first principles" analysis of physical problems (e.g. on how to populate Mars) is remarkable, and I think he is less convincing in his dealing with financial challenges.
bhtooefr
Active Member
Panasonic uneasy about partner Elon Musk's bombshells
There's the usual FUD, although it's interesting that they have a source claiming that Panasonic is getting leery of working with Musk, over things like the going private tweet and his "use" of marijuana on Joe Rogan's podcast.
(To be fair, my understanding is that the Japanese cultural attitudes towards those who smoke marijuana, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is Jeff Sessions, and 10 is Willie Nelson, are... probably a 1.)
There's the usual FUD, although it's interesting that they have a source claiming that Panasonic is getting leery of working with Musk, over things like the going private tweet and his "use" of marijuana on Joe Rogan's podcast.
(To be fair, my understanding is that the Japanese cultural attitudes towards those who smoke marijuana, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is Jeff Sessions, and 10 is Willie Nelson, are... probably a 1.)
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