TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Yggdrasill]

I think Luvb2b's estimate is conservative, and I am confident that Elon & Deepak know how to control cost to work in favor of their guidance. we'll have to see about this after ER.
Whether they are off a few millions or not, my point is that the main short thesis will be destroyed at Q3 ER with FCF/non-GAAP profit, most likely GAAP profit, and increased Q4 production/GAAP profit guidance. Tesla has never been in a better position than today's.

The weakest point in the luvb2b analysis is the Model 3 margin, in my opinion. 16% margin is definitely conservative; it may be closer to 20%. In which case, profits are quite massive.

 

[NikeWings]

I think Luvb2b's estimate is conservative, and I am confident that Elon & Deepak know how to control cost to work in favor of their guidance. we'll have to see about this after ER.
Whether they are off a few millions or not, my point is that the main short thesis will be destroyed at Q3 ER with FCF/non-GAAP profit, most likely GAAP profit, and increased Q4 production/GAAP profit guidance. Tesla has never been in a better position than today's.

Agree TSLA is in a much improved position, but substantial material exists for shorts and fudsters to fearlessly promote.
One quarter doth not make a trend. But it's a crucial start and I'm on the rally train with you. Just being realistic nbout the timing of their destruction, a bit too soon is my guess, but I do hope your right.

 

[Xpert]

The weakest point in the luvb2b analysis is the Model 3 margin, in my opinion. 16% margin is definitely conservative; it may be closer to 20%. In which case, profits are quite massive.

Exactly! they ran out of AWD to sell....and ended up producing ALL AWD and P3D cars. should be at least 17% margin IMO.

 

[oneday]

Agree TSLA is in a much improved position, but substantial material exists for shorts and fudsters to fearlessly promote.
One quarter doth not make a trend. But it's a crucial start and I'm on the rally train with you. Just being realistic nbout the timing of their destruction, a bit too soon is my guess, but I do hope your right.

It does seem like they are coiling the spring tighter and tighter though. The negativity around TSLA could very quickly start actually working against them. That day could come sooner than expected, but for the sake of prudence it may also never come. If they do keep missing all of these great opportunities for a quiet and orderly exit, I believe they’re going to eventually run out of opportunities. The Tesla cash cow is already loaded on the train and left the station.

 

[AndyH]

No, you are not an idiot.

I was on the other side of that trade. I took naked shorts just under 380 and covered them today (still have puts). But in this case, you are not a fool.

Elon lied. Read the SEC complaint. He flat-out lied. And a key part of Elon's settlement is that he's not allowed to refute the SEC's case. They're forcing him have his Twitter go through a review process.

In US markets, when a CEO makes a claim like that, it's believable. Imagine a tech startup CEO announcing they'd received an acquisition offer that didn't exist in writing yet. It's just absurd. You don't screw around with these announcements and proceedings like a multi-billion equity purchase. You don't nonchalantly tease it on Twitter. And his best defense was that he had a verbal offer? That's not how this works...

You should join the lawsuits. What Elon did caused you damages, and you have a legitimate legal case. Sign up for one of the class actions.

I'm considering replying to you. But after letting some knowledgeable experts put forth a proposal for a reply I decided that a reply would not be in the best interest for posters that frequent this forum.

 

[dqd88]

The complaint is real enough. It's common in the UK, I understand, and in the cities. Model S/X really aren't made for narrow city streets. And even in Norway, garages and parking spaces aren't made for such wide cars.

Still, I would say this factor drops demand with more like 10%, not like 90%.

I've always wondered about this. Never been to Europe. But I see the narrow streets and small cars (mini cooper, fiat). Yet there are big cars made there too (bentley, range, benz). Is there friction between these groups of owners? Do they all play nice in the sandbox?

 

[NikeWings]

It does seem like they are coiling the spring tighter and tighter though. The negativity around TSLA could very quickly start actually working against them. That day could come sooner than expected, but for the sake of prudence it may also never come. If they do keep missing all of these great opportunities for a quiet and orderly exit, I believe they’re going to eventually run out of opportunities. The Tesla cash cow is already loaded on the train and left the station.

Yep and that tightening spring has me ready to go boing as well. It's awesome!! We're all going to explode with the stock. But since I can't be investing like you guys, just remember, I'm living vicariously through all of you so make it an amazing ride please. Thank you.

 

[AndyH]

I’m kind of an idiot and bought $100k worth of shares at $380 post-halt when he announced the go private deal. I still love Elon but there is no doubt that he misled people and destroyed trust. I’ve been following the stock for a year but the FUD is on another level now. I bought some January calls at the bottom and was actually at breakeven at $315. Wish I cashed out on Monday... I’m only 25 and am starting to see grey hairs lol.

If you have a little patience SP could hit 380 before February. I trusted the go private transaction too. Elon did say "considering". We've certainly learnt the meaning of that word now.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

so you did take my advice and cover. Good for you! any plan to sell the puts too or holding it through ER?

Holding. I think they're in trouble. I mean it when I say I think bankruptcy is coming. I will admit that I covered because I want my potential losses capped to the modest position I have.

I think the lack of Q3 and Q4 guidance is troubling, and I think the lack of any mention of the waitlist is also significant. These are the two pillars of how they would avoid bankruptcy, and yet no mention at all.

Turning around a company of this size, with this cash burn, is very hard. The problem Elon faces is that the scale game includes scaling talent, and he has had huge brain drain this year.

Losing people like his VP of logistics in June was just brutal -- and it cost them. Elon called out "delivery hell," a problem that a talented VP of logistics would see coming. And losing his solid VP of global supply chain in September? Brutal.

These are the people you depend on for keeping a lean organization that produces great margins.

A lot of customers are having negative model 3 experiences. The repair backlog has been accumulating, with some customers waiting months for parts. They're one of the most complained about companies in Norway.

Which is why it's so unfortunate to look back and see him lose talent in the service and customer experience department...

The lethal blow is SolarCity. SolarCity has been a disaster. They just aren't producing enough cash. They've lost nearly all their market share. And they have big loans coming due.

Without SolarCity, so much of this debt wouldn't be here.

Which is why they should file for chapter 11, recapitalize the company, and go back to being the niche, luxury car manufacturer.

Mod: Thank you for summarizing all of the standard possible arguments for negating the stock and company and the typical slurs against the CEO. In the interest of saving bandwidth, all of the factual evidence to refute these conclusions have already been made upthread and on other threads. Please limit your responses here to the buttons provided by the system.

 

[oneday]

I'm considering replying to you. But after letting some knowledgeable experts put forth a proposal for a reply I decided that a reply would not be in the best interest for posters that frequent this forum.

Am considering it as well, in less than 420 words guaranteed.

 

[Xpert]

Agree TSLA is in a much improved position, but substantial material exists for shorts and fudsters to fearlessly promote.
One quarter doth not make a trend. But it's a crucial start and I'm on the rally train with you. Just being realistic nbout the timing of their destruction, a bit too soon is my guess, but I do hope your right.

GAAP profitable Q3 and Q4 guidance will freak out the shorts, but I'm sure they won't believe Elon and will hang on for a while. I predict Q4 is likely going to be the time when they are actually crushed and even if not then, Q1 with more profits + GF3 hype + model Y hype will do. and then if history is of any indication, another 500k model Y reservations...the list goes on.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Not sure how this works but could it be possible that all shorts coordinate together an decide the market movement? Do they talk among themselves?

Yup, that's definitely what we do. Telepathically of course (and in Sanskrit).

 

[Buckminster]

Car parking space in Winslow, US
Google Maps
The best car parking space in Winslow, UK
Google Maps

 

[dqd88]

James Murdoch will be chairman in my opinion, and I fully support it. As Tesla becomes a mass market company they need to expand their customer base to include the type of right wing customers who currently hate Tesla. What better way than to make the head of Fox chairman of the board? I don't think many left wingers would care that much since they so enthusiastically support the mission, so the net increase in the customer base would be huge. It will also increase the investor base, especially among institutions who see Tesla leadership as too insular.

Also, how do you think he became a board member in the first place? Elon and the Tesla team obviously know a lot more about him and his character than any of us or he wouldn't be there. Unlike the father James and his wife are well known environmentalists and I believe he genuinely cares about the mission.

If he wants to be chairman he needs to get his dad to put $1B into TSLA.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I’m kind of an idiot and bought $100k worth of shares at $380 post-halt when he announced the go private deal.

And I was in for $1.1M at $379. Didn't do well on that trade.

Such is life. The result for me is that I no longer trust Elon to know what he's doing. I was sure he must have it nailed, but it turned out he was winging it. There are, of course, no first principles when it comes to legal matters; therefore his superpower fails him.

 

[NikeWings]

GAAP profitable Q3 and Q4 guidance will freak out the shorts, but I'm sure they won't believe Elon and will hang on for a while. I predict Q4 is likely going to be the time when they are actually crushed and even if not then, Q1 with more profits + GF3 hype + model Y hype will do. and then if history is of any indication, another 500k model Y reservations...the list goes on.

Yes that's my thinking as well. Q1 is a trajectory tipping point. Sustainability of demand, production, margin, and visibility to fcf capacity to repay the debt stack, offset by global expansion & logistics risk. We'll also have a reconstituted board in place by Q1 which will be indicative of something.......not sure yet what.

 

[dqd88]

Yep and that tightening spring has me ready to go boing as well. It's awesome!! We're all going to explode with the stock. But since I can't be investing like you guys, just remember, I'm living vicariously through all of you so make it an amazing ride please. Thank you.

Why can't you be investing?

 

[oneday]

[snip] Which is why they should file for chapter 11, recapitalize the company, and go back to being the niche, luxury car manufacturer.

Bob Lutz. Bob, freaking chapter 11, Lutz. Is that you? You know a bunch of people have been nominating you for new chairman. If that happens, you’ll right the ship I’m sure of it. That chapter 11 you pulled off at GM was brilliant, plus you got over on the taxpayers over $11billion dollars. 11 must be your favorite number.

 

[dqd88]

Am considering it as well, in less than 420 words guaranteed.

Careful, You're all in danger of being put on his ignore list!

 

[Bet TSLA]

James Murdoch will be chairman in my opinion, and I fully support it.

A criminal from a family of criminals? What a grotesque thought. It's bad enough he's on the board. I have trouble imagining why he's there except as another one of Elon's jokes.