TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RFernatt]

NOT with Trump 25% import duties on China. Stupid trade wars from Trump may crash the world again - 2007 replay. I wish someone would go bribe Trump to change this trade war nonsense.
OF COURSE our Congress just lets him do it. President is just an executive and must get money from Congress, enforce laws/policies created by Congress and Congress approves his appointments. But few seem to understand our constitution and the empire continues to spiral down.

It's like we're living in a strange fiction. It makes me think of this passage from LOTR:

"And so the kingdom of Gondor sank into ruin, the line of kings failed, the white tree withered and the rule of Gondor was given over to lesser men.”

 

[AWDtsla]

A little play money for him now that the ramp was a success, Jerome deserves it. $300k isn’t much considering he still has $700k in stock options.

http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/8e8b8f0f-df33-4635-bb03-9e6fc5f824ad

Seems like ~38,000 shares in that grant.

 

[generalenthu]

I received an email from estimize.com asking for an entry into their crowd-sourced earnings estimate for TSLA. When I tried to add an estimate using approximate revenue and eps from luv's modeling, it told me that my estimate was too far out of their expected range and wouldn't be counted Try for yourself. TSLA - Tesla Inc. Crowdsourced Earnings Estimates - Estimize

Feel free to help their confirmation bias by feeding in a big loss. I don't mind a shock and awe Q3 by lowering expectations at this point.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA short term charts continue to look very promising
Shorts basically on the verge of capitulation and a coiled spring like release in SP likely to occur any day now
Expect a fast and rapid run up as shorts rush for cover

 

[anthonyj]

$TSLA short term charts continue to look very promising
Shorts basically on the verge of capitulation and a coiled spring like release in SP likely to occur any day now
Expect a fast and rapid run up as shorts rush for cover

Lol, what makes you say that? What new investor would want to buy shares in a company that gets pummeled by the media even when news is positive?

 

[AWDtsla]

Lol, what makes you say that? What new investor would want to buy shares in a company that gets pummeled by the media even when news is positive?

A smart one.

 

[dqd88]

As much as I <heart> JB Straubel, he's best left as CTO.

Tesla has its next CEO in Jerome Guillen. He's already been promoted to head automotive from his previous position as Head of Playing With Trucks. He left for a break and came back. I think his Daimler and broader Tesla experience makes him a much better fit.

I'm thinking in 3 years. I was thinking JB, if groomed into the position, might be good for it. But Jerome I'm sure would be great too. In general, it's good to have bench strength which is something Tesla needs to work on. When Elon says (paraphrasing) "there's no one than can do the job. if there is, they can have the job" --- well that's not a good look. It just means more bench grooming and succession planning needs done.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

A smart one.

Well, a smart one with either a very long or very short outlook. Anything longer than a day or shorter than a year+ and that media narrative will hurt.

 

[RobStark]

I'm thinking in 3 years. I was thinking JB, if groomed into the position, might be good for it. But Jerome I'm sure would be great too. In general, it's good to have bench strength which is something Tesla needs to work on. When Elon says (paraphrasing) "there's no one than can do the job. if there is, they can have the job" --- well that's not a good look. It just means more bench grooming and succession planning needs done.

Elon said he is not a micro manager. He is a nano manager.

No one else can nano manage Tesla.

Giving Jerome the responsibilities of President of Automotive Operations is a good start in taking stuff off of Elon's CEO plate.

Once you pair down the job description to something approaching normal then I think you can find plenty of good candidates including Jerome.

 

[defc0n]

Someone tell me how the stock price can actually go higher? With all of the media fud? I just don’t see it. Every positive is turned negative. We’ll all be holding this bag.

I’ll personally probably be back in big again shortly before Q3 financials. Only have a small position now. The whole China thing in the report is what really hurt it now short term and the lack of color on profitability in my opinion.

Some investors probably feel the stock is too risky or tainted with further fear of DOJ action against Musk even if it is unlikely. The whole SEC thing scared off some people who were probably happy to just get their money back.

Long term I believe Tesla’s best days are ahead. The overall market doesn’t necessarily agree right now. If Tesla posts a Q3 profit and guides for higher profit in Q4, which I think they will, then we should see some fireworks.

Edit: English fail.

 

[dqd88]

$TSLA short term charts continue to look very promising
Shorts basically on the verge of capitulation and a coiled spring like release in SP likely to occur any day now
Expect a fast and rapid run up as shorts rush for cover

Can't tell if you're serious. But made me smile regardless.

 

[BornToFly]

Tesla needs to tout the battery in SA. Tesla energy will be bigger than their vehicle segment.

I've been waiting for big TE profits for two years! So far, that has been a huge disappointment as an investor. Everything else looks great, and it bogles my mind that the market cap is less than 2X revenue now. But, you don't get the big picture when you read the articles. The media should be reporting over and over that Model 3 is selling roughly 4X Mercedes C class, and around 5X BMW 3 series in the US. #1 selling car by revenue by a mile. More production now than Porsche. Revenue growing 75% per year, which is 3X faster than Amazon at this stage. Cash at end of Q3 should be over 2.5 Billion, and probably over 3 Billion by end of the year. Literally zero chance of bankruptcy. Demand is strong, as I am still waiting for AWD Model 3 along with two other people I know, and we haven't even tapped into Europe and China, where EV demand is stronger than in the US and the more affordable Model 3 is going to be YUGE!!! Hopefully the Q3 earnings report will be an OMG moment for everyone else and the stock will climb. That is, unless TT007 posts that the charts look good for a squeeze to 2,000, in which case we are all F*cked.....

 

[dqd88]

I’ll personally probably be back in big again shortly before Q3 financials. Only have a small position now. The whole China thing in the report is what really hurt it now short term and the lack of color on profitability in my opinion.

Some investors probably feel the stock is too risky or tainted with further fear of DOJ action against Musk even if it is unlikely. The whole SEC thing scared off some people who were probably happy to just get their money back.

Long term I believe Tesla’s best days are ahead. The overall market doesn’t necessarily agree right now. If Tesla posts a Q3 profit and guides for higher profit in Q4, which I think they will, then we should see some fireworks.

Edit: English fail.

This sounds like a rational view (there wasn't a button for "rational")

I think also investors want to see who the new directors are going to be.

 

[EVNow]

People keep thinking shorts are some unknown “big oil” people with deep pockets. Those people are happy to bribe congress - a much better ROI than shorting Tesla to lose money.

I think shorts are the usual Wall St vultures - hedge fund managers playing with someone else’s money. They are the ones with the social network to loosely coordinate their efforts, contacts in the NY news papers etc. As fellow travelers in the NY cocktail circuits they won’t be prosecuted or written badly about. They fund political campaigns and keep politicians happy. Remember how much money Change agent Obama got from them.

Hudson Bay Capital says it holds short position on Tesla | Reuters

 

[Xpert]

Given the price action of Yesterday & Today, I've to wonder whether we should expect another visit to 260s soon.

Nonesense! There will be mad resistance between 275-285. And a lot of buyers waiting to jump in. Q3 ER also incoming. Barring some extremely bad news it should at least hold until then, ER will determine next leg.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Lol, what makes you say that? What new investor would want to buy shares in a company that gets pummeled by the media even when news is positive?

Stick around for awhile and you'll find TT007 is one of the more, um bullish members of the board, so consider things accordingly.

The way I look at it he'll be bigly right once or at least eventually and that is what matters.
(Not an advice of course.)

 

[Xpert]

Lol, what makes you say that? What new investor would want to buy shares in a company that gets pummeled by the media even when news is positive?

Are you the new Mike117 or whoever that was that got banned?

 

[Boomer19]

Can't tell if you're serious. But made me smile regardless.

he’s serious

 

[anthonyj]

Are you the new Mike117 or whoever that was that got banned?

No, I’m a proud Tesla owner and love the brand. I’m just very frustrated with the $420 tweet and how the media is scaring new investors. I just don’t see how the stock can blow past $315 even if Q3 is profitable.

 

[Boomer19]

No, I’m a proud Tesla owner and love the brand. I’m just very frustrated with the $420 tweet and how the media is scaring new investors. I just don’t see how the stock can blow past $315 even if Q3 is profitable.

it’ll blow past 315 when the big boys are damn good and ready to send it there. they have to game the hell out of it first to shake every nickel out of the peons

if you’re concerned, buy an amount you aren’t going to need to cash out in the near term, not an amount that will drive you batshit or that will cause panic/heart attack if it goes down considerably, hold, wait.

i do this..and also have gambled with some options over the years. ive won big and small and lost big and small..(bigger lately)
it’s been a god damn roller coaster this year. i’m fairly young...although at this rate i feel like i’m dead already, but i just haven’t fallen over yet

but honestly, for most, the best is buy an and hold an amount of stock you’re comfortable not needing to touch for some time. build position in tranches. and don’t let the news cycle dictate your investment goals. many here will tell you the same... or like elon says, ‘don’t panic’