TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

This brought a lot of people out of the woodwork. It’s nice to see everyone’s true colors.

 

[trayloader]

watch how this scumbag Henry Blodget will spin and capitalize on this today.

 

[Tslynk67]

where did you see that?

He was responding to his own Tweet from 6 years back - pfff, talk about narcissistic!

 

[Singer3000]

And this is where his mind plays tricks on him.
You can have the best product in the world, if the image is ruined nobody’s interested.

It’s uncool.
Tesla is becoming uncool through his fallouts.

Was going to press the Disagree button but that doesn't move anything on.

By being on this website you are defacto in a Tesla bubble. People I know who are well outside this bubble caught drift of the Joe Rogan interview under their own steam weeks after the event and messaged to tell me it had "blown their mind". Lots of Normals are aware of the SEC settlement. And to them, Elon's latest tweet was "epic trolling". If we get to the point that the Model 3 production lines are idle due to lack of demand, then maybe I'll agree with you. But that's clearly not the case right now. The company's in great hands but if you don't agree then it's pretty simple. Sell.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Interdasting. Would Elon fly straight to Shanghai or stop for fuel somewhere? Range seems to indicate there's a 10% buffer.

I get nowhere near the rated range on my Tesla's. But not going near the posted speed limits might have a correlation?

IR reserves over water are legally 90 min, but most operators increase that. The G650ER (for Extended Range) has increased fuel capacity and is capable of flying 7,500 nautical miles (8,600 mi; 13,900 km) at Mach 0.85

The great circle distance KSFO-ZSPD is 5344 nm, allowing for about a 4 hr reserve

P.S. A week's stopover at PHNL with his boys would do a world of good. Jus' sayin'

 

[dqd88]

Man.... not a good day. I'm worried Musk and the board may separate, and Musk may step down at CEO.... I hope to god I am wrong but this is a real possibility.

No offense, but if you're skin is that thin you should prob not be in the stock, or many stocks. Or maybe you're over extended. Get balanced out and check out for a couple years.

 

[Fact Checking]

@elonmusk: "If you think Tesla is overvalued compared to probable value of future cash flows, sell. Otherwise, buy."

This would read rather awkwardly if Q3 cash flow was a disappointment.
​

It's just a factual statement. He's trying to get people to think rationally.

That's all true, my point was that Elon talking about whether to buy Tesla shares or not, based on future cash flows, would read rather awkwardly in hindsight if Tesla is not cash flow positive in Q3.

Consider the knowledge context: Elon probably already knows the preliminary financial results and knows whether Tesla managed to become cash flow positive in Q3 or not, with 99.999% certainty.

If it turns out that Tesla isn't cash flow positive in Q3 then why did he still (seemingly confidently) present that outcome as a realistic possibility to investors?

What he says is of course truthful no matter the outcome, but this particular statement will be rather awkward to look back upon if Tesla misses their positive cash flow expectations.

Which is why I consider this a (probabilistic) signal that Tesla is cash flow positive in Q3. YMMV.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think the SEC would have a problem with that too, and Musk wouldn't have much of a case.

That's why Elon would need to resign from Tesla. As a US citizen, no one can stop him from buying shares in a public company at market price.

Remember what the SCOTUS ruled? Money is Speech.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think he would still have to file Form 4’s. I might be wrong here but I think anytime you own over 10% stake you must file as an insider.

Though there is a 3 day lag in reporting. You are required to file 2 business days after a trade.

Oh yes absolutely file the forms. But do they prevent him from buying more? Other rules or limits? Not sure about the 'insider' part though. My understanding is the Saudi PIF stopped shy of 5% to avoid the publicity. But again *my understanding* was that the >5% ownership triggers the need to state you intentions. So not sure if that makes you an insider. I'm not sure if that restricts further purchases.

Surely someone here knows? @ Shirley ?

 

[dqd88]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon appears to believe that the judge views the settlement as too much. Lets see if he's actually right over the next week.

The way this story words it falls in line w/ that....

"Judge Nathan wants a letter justifying the lawsuit, before approving a settlement"

very interesting

 

[oneday]

Oh yes absolutely file the forms. But do they prevent him from buying? Not sure about the 'insider' part though. My understanding is the Saudi PIF stopped shy of 5% to avoid the publicity. But again *my understanding* was that the >5% ownership triggers the need to state you intentions. I'm not sure if that restricts further purchases.

Surely someone here knows? Shirley?

As long as he wasn’t privy to material information not available in the public domain there is no restriction that I know of.

 

[dqd88]

There's some truth to this but that doesn't mean it's a wise move to publicly mock the SEC while simultaneously trying to finalize a settlement with the SEC, and apparently navigate a separate SEC investigation over model 3 production numbers. This move will only increase the resolve of the SEC to use its power to take Musk down however it can.

Musk should counter sue the SEC. They need to tell the world why they do not punish lies by short sellers and media.

 

[dondy]

Any "FUDsters" are no doubt standing back and being Napoleonic.

“N'interrompez jamais un ennemi qui est en train de faire une erreur.”

Napoleon died being poisoned and abandoned by all his buddies. While winning plenty of tactical battles he butchered his country which never recovered and never returned to the time "le Roi Solei". Just saying.
There is no american company which bothers with innovation now outside of Musk basket, I wonder why....

Anyway,
while I am surprised why you don't get banned in time, I don't care really.
Just for your info: his tweet will be ignored, more of it, the second "inquiry" will disappear "in dust".
The crisis time for Musk is over and he is back on track, will he end up bailing from Tesla or not I don't care actually, my last casino games were in 2007.

As I was writing he still can take with him gigafactories "technically", the question if.

 

[Fact Checking]

I estimate Elon could borrow approx. $13.6B* against his shares in SpaceX

SpaceX is valued at $27.5b:

"SpaceX valuation shows ‘an unlimited amount of funding’ available in private markets, Equidate says"​

Elon owns maybe 60% of it, which is $16.5b. He wouldn't be able to borrow nearly as much though - but a couple of billion certainly.

Not sure he has to do any of this: Q3 financials are only ~3 business weeks away.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am glad [Elon] spoke up to his million followers including some big names.

Sorry, NOT on Twitter. Which big names did Elon include? Thanks!

 

[dqd88]

I didn't mean "bribery" as a crime, I meant Elon should use the various legal ways to bribe politicians in the U.S.:

• "Funding political action committees",
• "Giving campaign contributions",
• "Funding super-PACs",
• "Funding think tanks",
• "Funding lobbyists",
• etc.

In many other countries many of these would indeed be bribery, in the U.S. it's apparently a First Amendment right of your money to speak.

These are existing, legal weapons, they are tools that Elon should use for good purposes, because his opponents are sure armed to the teeth and are using them all the time ...

He should also then "bribe" the ad agencies/media/etc by doing at least some advertising. They might change their tune a bit. I don't see much downside to it.

 

[AlexS]

If Elon wants to burn shorts, he could start with Positive Earnings Pre-Announcement.
this is kind a opposite to profit warning announcement.

 

[Artful Dodger]

SpaceX is valued at $27.5b:

"SpaceX valuation shows ‘an unlimited amount of funding’ available in private markets, Equidate says"​

I used 4 years of cash flows for already-planned Falcon 9 launchs and a multiple of 24x cash flow to Market Cap (sames multiple as Boeing Aircraft NYSE:BA). Those assumptions value Elon's SpaceX stake around $19.7B, of which he could borrow around 70%, estimated of course.

Elon owns maybe 60% of it, which is $16.5b. He wouldn't be able to borrow nearly as much though - but a couple of billion certainly.

Elon Musk Trust owns 54% of SpaceX common shares, and 78% voting control (per WikiPee)

Not sure he has to do any of this: Q3 financials are only ~3 business weeks away.

Shorts lied about 2018Q3 production and deliveries. Now they're goading the SEC to investigate fraud on production numbers. How confident are you that shorts and FUDmeisters will magically stop when confronted with 1 quarter of positive news? [BTW, parts of the GOP are still trying to repeal FDR's New Deal enacted between 1933-36. These guys will not quit.]

Love is the answer, but I'd especially love Elon to show them the door.

 

[dondy]

Obviously Elon is trying to create controversy on purpose. It's not lack of control. He's a gambling man with a strategy. He's getting his chess pieces in position for check mate, or "short burn of the century" as he calls it. I know he predicted it to happen sooner, but he's been known to be late. "I would never bet against Elon" is common sentiment for a reason. Luckily I have some dry powder for tomorrow.

lol, he is as transparent as anybody can be. And definitely he doesn't like chess. The team he would assemble if he wants, would definitely do much more than that. But I don't see this happening.

 

[dondy]

His issue seems to be that index funds lend out the shares they own in order to make stock lending fees.

his issue is with index funds managers making money by the lending shares they don't own personally, which are used to suppress or drop value of respective companies. Which would also mean that the owners of these shares actually are loosing real money.