Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
OK, repeat topics, here's the summary. Did I miss anything before I go play?
  1. Saudi's as possible investors vs a civil society over there
  2. Tweets hurt, stop it... no they're necessary so people know
  3. Elon's mental, no it's his fight and part of Tesla's problem
  4. "Ignore the Headlines" vs What is Long? Paper loss is real.
  5. GM sucks, and how much inventory do you see in this picture?
  6. SEC is 2-faced (yup, pretty much)
Have a great weekend, look forward to your conclusions on Monday. My guess is SP goes up in 1st hour to $278, then down to $250 after another tweet.
 
So you are quoting some shorts there, right?

So this is a hodgepodge of very confused arguments that are hard to separate. Let me try, in order:
  • "Even if EBITDA is looking good, Interest is going to kill them if nothing else".
  • False:
    • Take a look at Q3 estimates: interest payments are a minuscule amount compared to the cash Tesla has already generated in Q3: they generated over 1 billion dollars of cash, over 500 million in free cash flow after interest payments. EBITDA, cash-flow analysis and even GAAP Tesla is looking good with and without interest payments.
    • In addition to those estimates take a look at Romit Shah of Nomura Instinet stating that Tesla is sustainably profitable:
    • There's also the recent CNBC interview with Ron Baron stating the same.
  • "he's a production line at capacity, servicing a home market with lower transportation and regionalisation, and any further growth is going to require yet more money"
  • False:
    • Firstly, Fremont is not nearly "at capacity" at 4k/week levels - according to recent independent audit they can upgrade to about 8k/week with "minimal capex less than $100m". Tesla is currently limited by the battery production limit of Panasonic lines in the Gigafactory - this is being increased by about 70% by the end of the year. Final capacity will be around 10k and that can be reached with incremental capex.
    • Secondly, Tesla has only scratched the upper crust of Model 3 demand even in the U.S.:
      • they are only selling $49k and more expensive versions at the moment,
      • they are not even leasing/financing while around 80% of all new car sales in the U.S. are financed,
      • upcoming features like the V9 software update will increase incremental demand even more
    • Tesla generally adds extra transportation costs to the ASP in Europe and other global markets, so it's a cost for the customers, not for Tesla. They are still very large markets and generate at least as much revenue for Tesla as the U.S. market.
  • "I've also seen quite an increase in used stock in the US"
  • False:
    • Both Model S+X and Model 3 inventory is at very low levels for the year. Here's the Model 3 inventory:
    • model-3-3q18-jpg.340346
    • Yes, you are seeing that correctly: that's only 1,985 Model 3's in inventory, or less than 3 days of production. As a comparison Ford/GM/Chrysler have inventory levels of over 60 days of production ...
That's the main misconceptions I've been able to find in that argument, but it's all pretty incoherent so I'll stop here.

Fact-check, you and others have really breath some life into this forum with your FUD fighting, handling bears with supported facts. I hope you continue the good work for the foreseeable future, and that somewhere down the road Tesla will recognize supporters like yourself, who spends hours outside the factory into making the company what it is today. We may not be working with Tesla as employees on the Model 3 line, but this is as close to the battlefield as any soldier could get. If Tesla is unable to award you with a thank you, at least I hope that their $2000-4000 PT will be enough to satisfy our bruises and scars from all the abuse shorts have thrown at us. Bless your heart and fighting spirit.
 
Last edited:
He was kicked out as CEO because he was unavailable when CEO signatures were necessary. Thiel and Musk say the same thing.
They each signed a "Separation Agreement and Mutual Release" on May 4th, 2001, that legally requires them to say the same thing. One pertinent section (of several) says this:
(c) Nondisparagement. The Parties also agree that they will not, either directly or indirectly, hereafter make any defamatory, negative or denigrating comments of any type or nature whatsoever about each other (or the other Party's employees, officers, agents, consultants, affiliates, investors or business partners) to anyone.

Robin
 
Would love to hear what y'all think of some of my most recent thoughts on Elon vs SEC. Though I don't agree with the SEC going after Elon so harshly, I also don't agree with Elon attacking and blaming the SEC, the media and shortsellers. If he doesn't stop, there's a good chance that Elon won't be CEO for much longer... and that would be a very sad outcome.

Part 1: The Turning Tide - Why the SEC is going after Elon and why he’s losing many of his most ardent fans
Great article! I wish this forum had more post like this - in depth, critical, and constructive analysis. Over the years I have seen the quality of the forum deteriorating
1. Too many posts arguing with trolls
2. Too much cheer leading without depth
3. Any critical (yet constructive) views were attacked

I also want to take this opportunity to call out the great contribution luvb2b (q2-q4 2018 financial projections) made on the tsla financial model - first rate work! If we keep refining the model over the next few quarters it will be the most accurate model in the world (except Deepak's ;)), and that will have a huge impact refuting FUD regarding tsla financials.
 
Last edited:
It seems to me that Elon's tweets are indeed trying to show that the punishment put on him was not fair, that he is appealing to the judge about that in the unsettled settlement.

I don't know enough to know if that's a viable argument for him here, but that's how it reads.

Am I wrong?

Is it possible he will convince the judge that he is being unfairly attacked & punished?

When your in a hole, stop digging.
 
CNBC is insane with their analysis of Tesla. It's really amazing. As a right wing person I don't understand why the liberal media attacks Tesla. It's so counter their supposed green goal. Ah but I digress. I just want Tesla to build cars at a profit lol.
My boss is a right wing person and is constantly crowing to me about everything negative about Tesla that he hears in the media. His only media source is Fox News, by the way. ;)
 
I want to thank Fact Checking for over 1000 high quality posts in barely 2 months. I can only think of one other person who would be capable of doing this, and it is Elon Musk. Having said that, maybe FC and EM are the same person: they used the same abbreviation for the SEC, and since the Model 3 production hell ended end of july EM has had a lot more time available since august.

Well FC should be the one tweeting ;)
 
They each signed a "Separation Agreement and Mutual Release" on May 4th, 2001, that legally requires them to say the same thing. One pertinent section (of several) says this:
(c) Nondisparagement. The Parties also agree that they will not, either directly or indirectly, hereafter make any defamatory, negative or denigrating comments of any type or nature whatsoever about each other (or the other Party's employees, officers, agents, consultants, affiliates, investors or business partners) to anyone.

Robin
sure and this agreement made Thiel to invest in SpaceX too....
This is normal, standard condition for any separationagreement and was targeting Musk much more than Thiel or any other director.
 
Mod

Mods can we move this to Market politics...and Ulmo what in the world are you smoking?
I thought Neroden's conversation belongs elsewhere; I intentionally responded point by point to what Neroden posted to point out that I am not the one who diverted from the main topic. Why did you single out my post when Neroden is the guilty party? That is so typical of Democrat-leaning politicians.
 
So you are quoting some shorts there, right?

So this is a hodgepodge of very confused arguments that are hard to separate. Let me try, in order:
  • "Even if EBITDA is looking good, Interest is going to kill them if nothing else".
  • False:
    • Take a look at Q3 estimates: interest payments are a minuscule amount compared to the cash Tesla has already generated in Q3: they generated over 1 billion dollars of cash, over 500 million in free cash flow after interest payments. EBITDA, cash-flow analysis and even GAAP Tesla is looking good with and without interest payments.
    • In addition to those estimates take a look at Romit Shah of Nomura Instinet stating that Tesla is sustainably profitable:
    • There's also the recent CNBC interview with Ron Baron stating the same.
  • "he's a production line at capacity, servicing a home market with lower transportation and regionalisation, and any further growth is going to require yet more money"
  • False:
    • Firstly, Fremont is not nearly "at capacity" at 4k/week levels - according to recent independent audit they can upgrade to about 8k/week with "minimal capex less than $100m". Tesla is currently limited by the battery production limit of Panasonic lines in the Gigafactory - this is being increased by about 70% by the end of the year. Final capacity will be around 10k and that can be reached with incremental capex.
    • Secondly, Tesla has only scratched the upper crust of Model 3 demand even in the U.S.:
      • they are only selling $49k and more expensive versions at the moment,
      • they are not even leasing/financing while around 80% of all new car sales in the U.S. are financed,
      • upcoming features like the V9 software update will increase incremental demand even more
    • Tesla generally adds extra transportation costs to the ASP in Europe and other global markets, so it's a cost for the customers, not for Tesla. They are still very large markets and generate at least as much revenue for Tesla as the U.S. market.
  • "I've also seen quite an increase in used stock in the US"
  • False:
    • Both Model S+X and Model 3 inventory is at very low levels for the year. Here's the Model 3 inventory:
    • model-3-3q18-jpg.340346
    • Yes, you are seeing that correctly: that's only 1,985 Model 3's in inventory, or less than 3 days of production. As a comparison Ford/GM/Chrysler have inventory levels of over 60 days of production ...
That's the main misconceptions I've been able to find in that argument, but it's all pretty incoherent so I'll stop here.

FC.......one clarification regarding inventory. The poster references an increase in used inventory, not new inventory. I think there is a degree of merit to this given the first offered 3 year lease vintage has been maturing and we should expect increased off lease intake correlating to the growth of leasing over the past 3 years. The subsequent turnover rate and management of its entrance back into available used inventory becomes key, but shouldnt we expect to see lease returns temporarily contribute to used inventory growth?
 
I thought Neroden's conversation belongs elsewhere; I intentionally responded point by point to what Neroden posted to point out that I am not the one who diverted from the main topic. Why did you single out my post when Neroden is the guilty party? That is so typical of Democrat-leaning politicians.
Did I hurt your feelings?
 
  • Like
Reactions: BioSehnsucht
My boss is a right wing person and is constantly crowing to me about everything negative about Tesla that he hears in the media. His only media source is Fox News, by the way. ;)

Why we gotta bring everything down to leftist vs right wingers?

People seriously think news isn’t spun by any outlet? Doesn’t matter.. Fox, CNN, NBC. If there was no spin news would consist of the following and that’s it:

Kavanaugh loses confirmation vote 48-50.

Kavanaugh wins confirmation vote 50-48.

Tesla produces x vehicles on guidance of y.

This is called reporting. Anything beyond those sentences is an attempted spin to suit a narrative.

Being your boss, he can afford a Tesla.

You want people like that on your side not against you.

Offer him a test drive and separate the politics.

Nobody dislikes clean air, seriously. It’s hard to believe but it’s true.

The nuances behind all that is complex and cant be broken down to labels like trump tards and libtards.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.