TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MikeQ]

What is your mission?

I poked around the survey (answering with bogus answers). It's really a survey trying to figure out how people charge their cars.

We all know we charge from a 110 outlet exclusively and drive 1000 miles a day. I'm not sure why this needs a survey.

 

[M3Rider]

I poked around the survey (answering with bogus answers). It's really a survey trying to figure out how people charge their cars.

We all know we charge from a 110 outlet exclusively and drive 1000 miles a day. I'm not sure why this needs a survey.

To me it looked more like an attempt to figure out which charging perks are likely to influence your decision to buy an EV.

 

[GBleck]

Model 3 motor & gearbox still in good condition after driving 1M miles. Designed for ultra high endurance.

Bots probably are not good at understanding this impact.
Seems to me this means:
1. Model 3 is perfect for Tesla Network. If it can earn $0.5 per mile, that's half million dollars revenue from each car.
2. Used Model 3 will retain it's value very well.
3. It makes even more sense to buy Mode 3 instead of an ICE vehicle.

Maybe Tesla can offer a paid extended warranty. Owners get peace of mind. Tesla earns some money.

The 1M mile model 3 drive train is shared by the Tesla Semi. Semi is going to be a license to print money if the TCO per mile is significantly lower then it's competition.

Unrelated... typing ASS into the high score on Atari games is still fun.

Green day on a down macro is always nice.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Elon Tweeting a lot these last 24 hours - all +ve stuff though!

He seems to be in a good mood lately. Maybe had a chat with Deepak...

 

[NicoV]

If you have the budget for it, consider trading yours in when air suspension comes out.

Is there any news about that? Last time I heard about this was years ago,when Elon tweeted that air suspension was linked to AWD , and people assumed both would appear together but didn’t.

 

[Intl Professor]

Is there any news about that? Last time I heard about this was years ago,when Elon tweeted that air suspension was linked to AWD , and people assumed both would appear together but didn’t.

My remembrance too and nothing since.

 

[dqd88]

A giant middle finger to my computer screen for closing under $260 today. I know it doesn't really matter, though (to me at least).

Looks like it followed the overall market drop off at eod. All indexes down/dropped.

 

[GBleck]

A bit off-topic for market action, so apologies during trading hours, but there's a "gentleman" by the name of Eric Garland Who has 179K followers on Twitter. He bills himself as a strategic intelligence analyst for governments and corporations. Today he is all but accusing Elon of money laundering and pushing the narrative that because Elon is stepping down as Chairman there is something nefarious going on. This is not the first time I have seen tweets from Mr. Garland disparaging Elon without proof. Does this man have any connections to the Market? Again, apologies for non-market related but thought it was important and rumors can and do drive share price.
edit: he did not insinuate drug use, but his followers do.

#TeamPillowForts
As named by Malcom Nance "Team Pillow Forts". His social media graph is... suspect.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

#DieselGate for German car maker Opel (link).

 

[Fact Checking]

Model 3 motor & gearbox still in good condition after driving 1M miles. Designed for ultra high endurance.

Heh:

The Model 3 has also been simplified with service costs in mind: no Falcon Wing Doors, no complex self-presenting door handles, no sunroof, using easier to cool PM motors, using a re-designed battery pack, etc. etc - and the cherry on top is a very clever minimalist interior design that also happens to reduce manufacturing and servicing costs and increases vehicle life time. Car interiors tend to age the fastest.

I believe in a few decades the Model 3 will be taught in business school as an example of modern manufacturing breakthroughs.

So yes, certain versions of the Model S had service cost problems, but that was not really an inherent property of the EV concept, it was more like a side effect of the aggressive innovation cycle and learning curve Tesla went through as a newcomer to the automotive industry.

Note that early Model 3 batches obviously have a higher chance of being more service intense, and there's inevitably going to be recalls - but with the Model 3 I think we are going to see the first high-volume demonstration of how good EVs really are, in terms of significantly reduced service costs.

IMHO the 1 million miles drive train also explains why the Model 3 Performance shares the drive unit with the regular Model 3 (other than bin-sorting for good thermal characteristics), as the 'regular' Model 3 already has a 1 million miles drive train the increased mechanical wear & tear of the more powerful motors of the Performance model is probably still good for well over half a million miles.

A 1 million miles (1.6 million kilometers) drive train is a truly fantastic result, as the motor and its gearbox is one of the very few moving parts in a Tesla powertrain, and it is the one exposed to the highest mechanical loads.

It's looking very good for the Tesla Semi, and Semi powertrain future capex spending just dropped by an order of magnitude if the drive drain is shared with the Model 3 as is.

It also puts in perspective Elon's recent announcement that Tesla's drive train factory reached the 10,000 units/week output recently: that capacity will probably also be able to cover Tesla Semi drive trains.

 

[TradingInvest]

I poked around the survey (answering with bogus answers). It's really a survey trying to figure out how people charge their cars.

We all know we charge from a 110 outlet exclusively and drive 1000 miles a day. I'm not sure why this needs a survey.

Sorry for being off topic, I hope this can help others to save a bit time.
I went through the survey, it seems they are in the business of selling/installing 240V chargers in your garage. It's a waste of my time. I also added the submitter to my ignore list. She/he should make it clear in the post, I would have happily helped.

 

[dqd88]

Sorry for being off topic, I hope this can help others to save a bit time.
I went through the survey, it seems they are in the business of selling/installing 240V chargers in your garage. It's a waste of my time. I also added the submitter to my ignore list. She/he should make it clear in the post, I would have happily helped.

I filled out the survey. Have no idea who created it. But I did feel it could help inform Tesla (or whoever) as to the psychological impact of chargers.

I wonder... can Tesla create roaming super chargers? Ie- Vans that can roam around and charge in more remote areas. Seems that Nio does this.

 

[dqd88]

#DieselGate for German car maker Opel (link).

Loving all the diesel problems. Hopefully the powers that be will soon wake up and say "you know what - f*ck it, let's just go all electric and we'll never have to worry about this sh*t"

 

[KarenRei]

Is there any news about that? Last time I heard about this was years ago,when Elon tweeted that air suspension was linked to AWD , and people assumed both would appear together but didn’t.

No news. But I see no reason to think that they're not going to offer it; they have every incentive to want to keep the ASP up and encourage new sales to existing owners. The only negative to offering it is that it might cost them some Model S sales... but I seriously doubt there's many people choosing S over 3 simply due to air suspension.

 

[NicoV]

Loving all the diesel problems. Hopefully the powers that be will soon wake up and say "you know what - f*ck it, let's just go all electric and we'll never have to worry about this sh*t"

Except in Belgium, because we risk blackouts in november because only 1 of our 8 nuclear power plants are operational.

 

[KarenRei]

I filled out the survey. Have no idea who created it. But I did feel it could help inform Tesla (or whoever) as to the psychological impact of chargers.

I wonder... can Tesla create roaming super chargers? Ie- Vans that can roam around and charge in more remote areas. Seems that Nio does this.

I actually considered starting a business doing something related - a service that picks up your car, drives it to a nearby charging station (building new charging stations where economically optimal, using existing ones otherwise), and then picks it up when its full and delivers it back home. The idea was also to combine it with random perks, like cleanings or carwashes every X trips.

Try as I might, I couldn't make the numbers work. Simply going to and from charging stations, plus the overhead on each end and for getting drivers to their next stop, is just too much labour. It makes the price seem unreasonable in contrast to how much you pay for the electricity, or even vs. gasoline, unless you trick people into working for under minimum wage. Which I know seems to be the trend today, but I have no interest in a business that works via immorality.

 

[Fact Checking]

It's looking very good for the Tesla Semi, and Semi powertrain future capex spending just dropped by an order of magnitude if the drive drain is shared with the Model 3 as is.

It also puts in perspective Elon's recent announcement that Tesla's drive train factory reached the 10,000 units/week output recently: that capacity will probably also be able to cover Tesla Semi drive trains.

We also have Elon's recent visit to Nevada, where he talked about Gigafactory expansion plans to 20,000 employees:

Tesla aims to have 20,000 employees at Gigafactory 1, could invest in local housing, says Elon Musk​

I think it's almost certain at this point that both the Tesla Semi and the Model Y are going to be made at the Nevada Gigafactory. There's probably not enough factory floor space at Fremont to make the Model Y, even if much of the lines were shared with the Model 3.

Also, Tesla needs further capacity expansion in North America, badly:

• Even at 10k/week Model 3 output at a $35k entry price point covers maybe 3% of the domestic passenger vehicle sales in the U.S., a fraction of the addressable market which should be around 20-30% of all sales.
  
• I think dedicated sedan and SUV making facilities probably scale better and are more capex efficient in the long run than shared sedan/SUV assembly lines.
• I think Elon really wants to try the Alien Dreadnought v3 with the Model Y. The Model 3 ramp-up was a painful experience, he really wants to see another ramp-up in North America, done very differently this time.
• I believe there's a fair chance for the component count of the ~10,000 Model 3 parts to drop below 5,000 parts for the Model Y (!), in part achieved via manufacturing break-throughs in automotive wiring and electronics. This would allow even higher margins for the Model Y.

I.e. I'd expect a Model Y unveil next March to come with a "first units expected to be shipped at the end of 2020" production estimate.

 

[Johan]

For any investor who didn't yet read this post, this is a mandatory read. Assuming @jimmy_d knows what he's talking about, which everything points to, this is some very important information with possibly huge implications over time for TSLA from an investor's point of view. If it is in fact the case that we're invested in a front-runner with an increasing lead against the opposition in the self-driving race we could see a winner-takes-all scenario forming... just saying… could be huge.

Neural Networks

 

[Dennisj00]

Wow! Just caught up again. And just had a group of 4 Cub scouts (2m/2f ages 6-10?). Come by selling popcorn. As they left, one exclaimed ‘That’s a Tesla! And they all revolved around the M3!

Imagine the demand coming!

 

[TradingInvest]

Heh, I chickened out calling the Model 3's drive train a 1 million miles drive train, but came pretty close a few weeks ago:



IMHO the 1 million miles drive train also explains why the Model 3 Performance shares the drive unit with the regular Model 3 (other than bin-sorting for good thermal characteristics), as the 'regular' Model 3 already has a 1 million miles drive train the increased mechanical wear & tear of the more powerful motors of the Performance model is probably still good for well over half a million miles.

A 1 million miles (1.6 million kilometers) drive train is a truly fantastic result, as the motor and its gearbox is one of the very few moving parts in a Tesla powertrain, and it is the one exposed to the highest mechanical loads.

It's looking very good for the Tesla Semi, and Semi powertrain future capex spending just dropped by an order of magnitude if the drive drain is shared with the Model 3 as is. It also puts in perspective Elon's recent announcement that Tesla's drive train factory reached the 10,000 units/week output recently.

I agree with you. This 1 million mile drive train news is a big deal. It affects Model 3, Semi, Model Y, and all future Tesla vehicles. It's positive for investors in several ways. In the early years Model S had drivetrain issues. Many cars had to replace the drive units. Now this risk is greatly reduced for Model 3.