Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Yep, I was super impressed with all the cars around me tracked. That's the major challenge. There's also sign and traffic light recognition,

Do you mean there's already sign and traffic light recognition in V9 (which would be interesting news) - or that it's another significant area that robust FSD has to cover?

but in the future we may not even need any signs - they can be plugged in directly into electronic maps that are maintained by authorities and cars of any brand can just pull them directly from the maps based on gps coordinates.

I think the ICE manufacturing industry will collapse a lot faster than there's going to be a reliably full coverage of traffic light database, and even when implemented it's probably not robust enough to rely on in any meaningful fashion:
  • the database could be out of date
  • changes to traffic light patterns are difficult to get 100% right
  • the local clock of the traffic light could be mis-calibrated so the timings could be off by a few seconds ...
  • the local traffic control has authority to do things unexpectedly: for example in many countries there's overrides for high priority traffic, such as a high level politician's convoy driving through, or emergency services, etc. These priority overrides will almost certainly not be published via a central database.
  • local traffic control hardware could also be outright buggy:
  • h24BCD757

In fact I'd pay for my car to not rely on any such databases, I'd consider that a safety feature ...

But such a database could be relied on to make decisions that are not safety related, such as the route picked by navigation.
 
It's easier to share a virtual account to view content though, than to share a car that is a physical object to get from A to B.
.
I recenly got an S loaner when my 3 was in service and immediately shared it with my wife, letting her use it for errands :)
Also, my daughters rode in it. It was just a S85 w/o P or D, so in my opinion it was not better than my 3, but the sharing w/ family and friends will take place.
 
  • Love
Reactions: Fact Checking
It's easier to share a virtual account to view content though, than to share a car that is a physical object to get from A to B.

Also, aren't young Netflix viewers creating their own accounts as they get out of school, start earning money, get into serious relationships and start families, instead of using a high school friend's account?

Takes some time, but looks like an inevitable process to me, driven by demographics.

Netflix holds its cards close, and there is a huge amount of sharing indicated by surveys, but one presumes they age out of it as you say. I was playing more on the fact that it's not too many years off (5?) before Tesla mobility and TaaS gets fired up and people are sharing cars in general, which will presumably be quite popular among the young.
 
Also, my daughters rode in it. It was just a S85 w/o P or D, so in my opinion it was not better than my 3, but the sharing w/ family and friends will take place.

Yeah, absolutely - but the original context of my point was that "Netflix sharing" is basically something that happens at the high school level, between friends.

"Car sharing" will be most common at the family level (like it is with ICE cars) - where geographical proximity is usually a given in the mornings and in the evenings. (With the exception of weekends ;).)

I.e. while shared Netflix accounts are largely 'virtual' that have few negative effects on the owner of the account, not having your car there because your friend on the other side of town is driving it is a problem. :D
 
Most fans and industrial motors are not really comparable to an EV powertrain though: much lower loads, much more stable RPM and stable temperature ranges. A lot of the wear-and-tear in an EV powertrain comes from weather related temperature fluctuations and the change in acceleration - the 2nd-5th integrals of velocity: jerk, snap, crackle and pop.

So I'd say the comparison is apples to ... Rice Krispies. ;)
ok, I deserved that due to over simplifying. Industrial loads can be much higher than an EV. If the gears are designed to the max motor torque, they will last (stamping press for instance). Less rotational mass means less higher derivative force available and no dumping the clutch...

Which leads to another region of longevity improvement: no wear/ friction surfaces, no synchros, clutches, bands, friction plates.

what weather temp fluctuations are you referring to? Electronics in general last longer at lower temp due to atomic migration at dissimilar interfaces...

Those one million mile gears sure looked good though!
 
LOL, that's possibly the only accurate fact in the long list of misleading, inaccurate or outright false claims.

Every time I think the quality of tabloid reporting has reached an all time low they surprise me again and again about how much lower they can still go! ;)

Agreed. Seems they worked in all the "greatest hits" in the world of Musk-smearing.
 
That made the rounds before. It was from 2016 I believe.

Indeed. But this 2016 event was resurrected in the NLRB trial last week, which is where this came from.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

ED: These Bloomberg "Are you a robot?" links will be really funny when the topic of discussion turns to Neuralink.... ;)
 
what weather temp fluctuations are you referring to? Electronics in general last longer at lower temp due to atomic migration at dissimilar interfaces...

Unlike the battery module, the gearbox and the motor is not pre-heated I believe?

Say in Canada with annual temperature ranges of -30°C to +30°C (and wider) will cause some extra wear&tear when starting cold from an unheated garage, when the lubricant film (oil) still has higher viscosity. There's probably also some negative effects of thermal expansion/contraction due to dissimilar thermal expansion coefficients of the different alloys in the gearbox and in the motor.

Operational temperatures in industrial environments are typically a lot more stable.

A third factor would be the mass ratio: a car power train is mass optimized, for volume, cost and efficiency reasons. Industrial motors and gears are not nearly as mass critical and typically have a lot higher material reserves in terms of wear & tear.
 
Do you mean there's already sign and traffic light recognition in V9 (which would be interesting news) - or that it's another significant area that robust FSD has to cover?
That's the area where we don't have a visual confirmation yet that V9 is able to handle it.
Sometimes I see speed limits shown on the screen, but don't know if these are recognized or come from some DB.

I think the ICE manufacturing industry will collapse a lot faster than there's going to be a reliably full coverage of traffic light database, and even when implemented it's probably not robust enough to rely on in any meaningful fashion:
  • the database could be out of date
I meant real time pulls. Tesla has LTE in cars, how difficult/expensive can it be in the future to mandate all cars to have it to stay current on road conditions?

There can be significant safety benefits to come from this, like it will allow authorities to react very quickly to changing road/weather conditions:
- bridge is frozen: plug in 25 mph speed limit in front of it;
- earthquake created cracks, downed bridges: mark the road closed;
- maintenance costs can be reduced and changes happen more quickly if you need to update speed limit from 55mph to 65mph.

I'm thinking maybe more into the future than the next couple of decades...

  • changes to traffic light patterns are difficult to get 100% right
  • the local clock of the traffic light could be mis-calibrated so the timings could be off by a few seconds ...
  • the local traffic control has authority to do things unexpectedly: for example in many countries there's overrides for high priority traffic, such as a high level politician's convoy driving through, or emergency services, etc. These priority overrides will almost certainly not be published via a central database.
Yeah, timing issues could be better handled by local recognition until the data connections speed is up and synchronization issues can be solved, I'm sure the day will come when hardware capacity is many times that of today and cheaper.

  • local traffic control hardware could also be outright buggy:
  • h24BCD757
This is an edge case that Tesla has to be able to handle in FSD - if they are checking to see if multiple lights are on, then should not be very hard to handle appropriately.

In fact I'd pay for my car to not rely on any such databases, I'd consider that a safety feature ...
Today yes. I think 50 years from today it may not be so obvious. Automated driving could be many times safer. Maybe it can be financed from the funds that are taken from insurance companies and body shops, b/c there's no longer a need to repair cars if accidents don't happen anymore...

I mean, what is needed? Fast data connections, cars talking to each other like passenger airplanes to avoid collisions and standardized database of road rules that can be accessed real time by all cars.

Scenarios w/ polititians and emergency services having priority can probably be handled one way or another, maybe they can drop their route onto the map having this override access and then other cars yield to them automatically.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Fact Checking
Unlike the battery module, the gearbox and the motor is not pre-heated I believe?

Say in Canada with annual temperature ranges of -30°C to +30°C (and wider) will cause some extra wear&tear when starting cold from an unheated garage, when the lubricant film (oil) still has higher viscosity. There's probably also some negative effects of thermal expansion/contraction due to dissimilar thermal expansion coefficients of the different alloys in the gearbox and in the motor.

Operational temperatures in industrial environments are typically a lot more stable.

A third factor would be the mass ratio: a car power train is mass optimized, for volume, cost and efficiency reasons. Industrial motors and gears are not nearly as mass critical and typically have a lot higher material reserves in terms of wear & tear.

Humm.... I'm thinking the impact of low temp on a gear train is much less than on pistons, rings, and non-roller bearings that rely on a pressurized oil feed. Concider the longevity of a standard car transmission: do the gears themselves ever fail? Or a rear differential (non-track). Only self heating there.
 
I meant real time pulls. Tesla has LTE in cars, how difficult/expensive can it be in the future to mandate all cars to have it to stay current on road conditions?

Whether to drive through a traffic intersection is literally a life and death decision, and "real time pulls" of such data doesn't make the significant edge cases go away. Relying on databases for speed limits is typically not a life and death decision: the car has a good notion of the environment and can decide what the safe speed is, plus the driver sets maximum speed. Driving through a traffic intersection with a traffic light is much more unpredictable: a car could T-bone you from the side at high speeds without the FSD software having much of a chance to predict or avoid it:


Put differently: if there's even a single traffic death or significant injury traced back to a Tesla vehicle relying on an erroneous or inaccurate database entry when driving through an intersection when under AutoPilot then that's a big potential liability, as it could have been avoided by not relying on that database and driving more conservatively (i.e. giving back control to the driver if in doubt).

So I don't think FSD reliance on a database of traffic light timings/schedules is going to be a thing in the next 10 years for Tesla or for other carmakers either, outside of augmenting navigation decisions which are not safety critical.

The only information I could see them using is the GPS coordinate and expected position of traffic lights, to make sure the car expects a traffic light to be there - and fall back to the driver if it cannot reliably see it. Doing this would always improve safety.
 
I meant real time pulls. Tesla has LTE in cars, how difficult/expensive can it be in the future to mandate all cars to have it to stay current on road conditions?

Unless I am misunderstanding what you are suggesting, the answer is it would be very expensive. The operator networks are not currently built to support low-latency or scale requirements of the V2X communications you describe, so someone has to foot that bill. Second, no one guarantees 100% connectivity. 95% connectivity is probably doable today, but the 5% is gonna come back and bite someone. 100% connectivity means at least two independent systems (say 5G and satellite) which will drive up cost and complexity.

For the foreseeable future, you'll see cars making decisions based on on-board logic and data being augmented by online resources.
 
I hate to say this ....but one can almost see certain shorts Trying to cause a FSD Tesla to crash.

The hysteria when a car on EAP crashes is enough to see how unravelled people can get.

I believe some people will stoop to any level to bring Tesla down.

I hope I'm wrong.
It is unavoidable that people will bully and push the limits with FSD cars. It is human nature....Hold my beer, a tesla driving itself!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.