TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dondy]

I don't think it's the 8k, it's an SEC filing. Musk actually has been buying a LOT of stock (at these levels and lower certainly) but did we get some big announcement for those - nope, it's just in the SEC filings. Why now? That's what has me a tad concerned.

right from 8-K filling
"
Tesla and Elon will each pay a civil penalty of $20 million.
"
"
Separate and apart from the settlement, Elon has notified Tesla that he intends to purchase from Tesla, and Tesla expects that it will issue and sell to Elon, $20 million of Tesla’s common stock during the next open trading window at the then-current market price.
"
They say that Musk is going to pay 20mln, and Tesla is going to pay with issuing 20mln worth new SP, which Musk warrants to buy at market price.
There is nothing to assume or to search between the lines

 

[SpaceCash]

I'm looking for signs of short covering into the close. Power hour hath commencethed

 

[shlokavica22]

Being positive in life/putting out positive doesn’t create an echo chamber. It simply creates a positive life loop, which has infinite advantages.

There is a difference about being positive about things you can't change and about things that you (think) can change.
The way you expressed yourself initially sounds to me as avoiding "negative" opinions without considering the value in the discussion arising from them.

Well presented critique nurtures progress.

 

[BenPrice]

I'm looking for signs of short covering into the close. Power hour hath commencethed

Agreed.

If I were Elon and I wanted to hit back at the ExonMobile advertising anti-Tesla on social media, the select news organizations that are acting like hired guns, etc.

I’d be announcing/leaking good news right about now every day.

 

[oneday]

There is a difference about being positive about things you can't change and about things that you (think) can change.
The way you expressed yourself initially sounds to me as avoiding "negative" opinions without considering the value in the discussion arising from them.

Well presented critique nurtures progress.

True, but you can disregard ALL negative opinions, and at the same time evaluate all the facts.

 

[oneday]

Agreed.

If I were Elon and I wanted to hit back at the ExonMobile advertising anti-Tesla on social media, the select news organizations that are acting like hired guns, etc.

I’d be announcing/leaking good news right about now every day.

If I were Elon I’d stay as tight lipped as possible and probably do another F-You to analysts during the Q3 call just to sucker in more shorts among other reasons (most of the analysts need a F-You).

Just throwing it out there as a contrarian position.

 

[SpaceCash]

If I were Elon I’d stay as tight lipped as possible and probably do another F-You to analysts during the Q3 call just to sucker in more shorts.

Just throwing it out there as a contrarian position.

I would agree with this if I wasn't so sure lately that the bulk if TSLA shorting isn't being conducted legally; I think there's a lot of naked shorting going on.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Tearing Apart Teslas to Find Elon Musk’s Best and Worst Decisions

Is there anything new in this ? Pretty sure all the video footage is old, and the article seems to mostly rehash out of date stuff from back then. "with assistance from Dana Hall" must be why they kept concentrating on the "bad".

 

[Brando]

holy *sugar*, the same movement at 1pm and especially 1:30pm

Computer all trade the same? Isn't that it?

 

[ZeApelido]

My favorite seeking alpha short now touting Jaguar I-Pace is destroying Tesla in Norway, and thus starts the inevitable demise of the company

 

[MXWing]

My favorite seeking alpha short now touting Jaguar I-Pace is destroying Tesla in Norway, and thus starts the inevitable demise of the company

He’s MY favorite short. Go find your own!!

First Bolt in America.. now iPace in Norway.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

That seems not only horribly cost-ineffective and deleterious to CO2 emissions, but will also cannibalize the cell production needed in The States for M3, MY, Semi, Roadster, Pickup, TE, etc.

I could imagine Panasonic making at more local facilities, whether they do all this in Japan though might ne an issue as it might attract import duties, but perhaps - and someone here probably knows - Panasonic either have existing facilities in China they can adapt or expand, or they'll be part of the initial setup.

One thing for sure is that the very recent experience is gold-dust for the new factory! And the new factory is a major risk mitigation for Tesla on many aspects.

GF1 can probably ramp faster than building out and ramping GF3, in the near term. Just build excess capacity (vs Model 3 ramp) and the excess can go to TE (of which there is practically unlimited demand). Plus, that excess capacity can also be used later for Y (though timing wise Y and GF3 production might coincide). Eventually there may be a slump in TE production again as multiple products come online but you can't really overproduce for TE unless there's another bottleneck (such as if the global shortage of IGBT's impacted TE storage as well).

I've always been baffled why Model 3 was focused on at the expense of TE, since the slowdown in Model 3 could have been used to build more storage, and ramping storage should be far easier than Model 3. It was a bit short sighted, as it caused Panasonic to slow their buildout and this then bit Model 3 production later ... If Tesla had simply told Panasonic to keep cranking cells at full tilt and just switch more lines to TE and ramped TE production accordingly, we wouldn't be having a cell supply problem now. They should have been able to ramp both as there is little overlap except for allocation of cell production lines.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

If I were Elon I’d stay as tight lipped as possible and probably do another F-You to analysts during the Q3 call just to sucker in more shorts among other reasons (most of the analysts need a F-You).

Just throwing it out there as a contrarian position.

I hope he is polite & gracious to everyone at the Q3 call. The only FU should be a giant visual representation of Tesla’s positive cash flow in Q3– going from zero to whatever the final number is over the course of an hour. No verbal sparring, no told-you-so, just an unmistakable demonstration of letting the facts speak for themselves.

 

[wipster]

My favorite seeking alpha short now touting Jaguar I-Pace is destroying Tesla in Norway, and thus starts the inevitable demise of the company

But where are they going to charge them there eye-pieces?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Tesla would likely also consider having Samsung manufacture some 2170 automotive cells in Korea for assembly at GF3, if that's allowable under China's import regime. Tesla owns the IP, and could easily have a 3rd party make the cells.

Panasonic has been a good and reliable partner so far, so I'd guess they are the top candidates - unless they are being unreasonable about the GF3 investment (which I don't think they are).

It's still a negotiation process.

My preference would be that they get both Panasonic and Samsung at minimum set up in GF3 (and GF1, and all future GFs), and buy cells from both. Or LG, or ... The point being that I'd like to have some supplier redundancy at scale for the cells. I don't care who it is so long as they're building it to spec reliably.

 

[mongo]

GF1 can probably ramp faster than building out and ramping GF3, in the near term. Just build excess capacity (vs Model 3 ramp) and the excess can go to TE (of which there is practically unlimited demand). Plus, that excess capacity can also be used later for Y (though timing wise Y and GF3 production might coincide). Eventually there may be a slump in TE production again as multiple products come online but you can't really overproduce for TE unless there's another bottleneck (such as if the global shortage of IGBT's impacted TE storage as well).

I've always been baffled why Model 3 was focused on at the expense of TE, since the slowdown in Model 3 could have been used to build more storage, and ramping storage should be far easier than Model 3. It was a bit short sighted, as it caused Panasonic to slow their buildout and this then bit Model 3 production later ... If Tesla had simply told Panasonic to keep cranking cells at full tilt and just switch more lines to TE and ramped TE production accordingly, we wouldn't be having a cell supply problem now. They should have been able to ramp both as there is little overlap except for allocation of cell production lines.

GF1 is production limited as it is with lines meant for TE putting out Model 3 cells. New lines from Panasonic can be installed in GF3 just as quickly as GF1 (once it exists). The cell lines are also easier to set up than the vehicle line, so should get done first.

During the 3 ramp, TE may have been limited in their module assembly so shifting early production to TE, while helpful later in having stock, would have resulted in increased inventory costs and storage requirements.

 

[CorneliusXX]

It reduces the per-share value of future cash flows, ceteris paribus.


This isn't investment income; it's pure dilution for existing shareholders that value the stock at more than current price: i.e. all investors.

It's clear to me at this point that no one stands up to Elon at Tesla, and this, in my opinion, is by far the most significant risk to investors.

Dilution?! You will still receive 99.96% of the value of the business allotted to your shares prior to the issuance. That means you are out a whopping $400 for every million you make. Probably should sell your shares after this daylight robbery.

How would you propose that Elon repay Tesla for the $20m he cost them? Buying shares on the open market just gives money to the seller of the shares, not Tesla. A loan would need to be recorded as a liability and have to be repaid at some point. Perhaps he should just have purchased 2k Model 3s so the margin repays Tesla the money.

 

[oneday]

I hope he is polite & gracious to everyone at the Q3 call. The only FU should be a giant visual representation of Tesla’s positive cash flow in Q3– going from zero to whatever the final number is over the course of an hour. No verbal sparring, no told-you-so, just an unmistakable demonstration of letting the facts speak for themselves.

I hope so too, and so do my Nov 7 calls I picked up today. Perhaps this new oversight committee will ensure this happens. But maybe they are only there to ensure he doesn’t violate federal regulations. Not sure. It still might be prudent to assign some probability that he might call the analysts bone-heads and just go to YouTube or the like.

 

[M3Rider]

Ford had a 100 year head start on Tesla.

GM destroyed their shareholder holdings when they declared bankruptcy and got bailed out. They are going to do it again most likely.

@M3Rider you really need to re-evaluate your statement. Might as well push for flat earth if you think Tesla had any advantage whatsoever over any other auto.

Porsche, Audi, Jaguar are practically vultures trying to ride what Tesla established.

Society needs to reward first movers, not vultures.

Those who dare.. WIN. Not like lame ass Audi who couldn’t even be bothered to stock their dealers with Etrons.

How’s that for commitment to EVs?

Which statement I need to re-evaluate?
Musk took a risk with Tesla and as a result it is better positioned in the market for future expansion, market share etc. That is the reward for the risk. That is why I hold their shares and not GM's.

However, in the long run competition is better than no competition (for consumers), Musk will not be a head of Tesla forever and things might change for the worse when he's not there.

Musk himself stated he will not single-handedly change the future, that it needs to be an effort by many. I see no reason why others, who change their mind and refocus from ICEs to EVs(other than as compliance vehicles) need to be punished. They were not pioneers, but they can still help to make the future better.

I think your point will be moot anyway, b/c for many years ahead Tesla will not have a problem selling all the cars they make, but there will be others wanting EVs, who will have to turn to other manufacturers just b/c of supply constraints.

 

[wipster]

Perhaps he should just have purchased 2k Model 3s so the margin repays Tesla the money.

Just as long as I'm part of the audience at the Oprah special with Elon as her special guest where everybody gets a model 3, I'm fine with that!