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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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1. Moderate his behavior on social media
I think he has already done that. But he still needs to engage with people and keep the hype going. Otherwise Tesla will fade from public memory. Its a delicate balance.

2. Come thru on his prior comments on being both GAAP and non GAAP profitable in q3 and q4; and
Not sure what this means - since Tesla has not given guidance of GAAP profitability in Q3/Q4. (edit : according to the conf call script posted below, Musk said he is highly confident of GAAP profits in Q3/Q4).

3. Do whatever is possible to come thru on his production prognosis for model 3
Model 3 production goal (5k/wk) has already been achieved. What "prognosis" are you referring to ?
 
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Q3 profit was a 'maybe'. That was said by Musk on a conference call. He did not make it a commitment.

A strong maybe.......highly confident actually.

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So serious question - has all short term production and inventory of LR-RWD Model 3 been spoken for?

If you had production not assigned or sitting in lots, taking it off menu would be counter productive?

If I were to play devils advocate and be a dumb ass bear how would I spin this?

Convert existing LRs to MR by removing batteries?

Save the LR for massive mark downs end of quarter?
 
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Between Neroden's comments and Curt's, it's becoming more and more apparent that the huge (650,000+) buying in the final minute of trading on Friday was probably related to market makers or someone protecting 260-strike options they sold, rather than shorts covering at end of day. I've seen what appears to be be shorts covering at end of busy manipulation days (when we see the effects on the daily chart) to the tune of upwards to 200,000 shares in the final minute, but never 650k+. Shorts are careful to stop the covering (buying) during that final minute so that the SP remains constant, and we clearly didn't see such restraint on Friday because of the $2 move in the final minute.

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Here's a new trading story to consider, given some big move by someone other than shorts at end of day. TSLA bottomed out about 2pm and with the tell-tale icicles and with 58.5% of TSLA selling attributed to shorts by FINRA data (always a higher number than reality, btw), shorts certainly had their hand in the over-the-top descent into the mid 250s. After 2pm, we see a recovery which was likely a combination of longs buying the sale price (you heard many on this thread doing so yesterday) and the market makers or others maneuvering in consideration of their expiring options that day starting to buy in. Lo and behold, the shorts doubled-down and started capping just above 258 (notice the near-horizontal trading going into close), which required more extreme measures. With either market makers balancing or sellers of options manipulating, you would see sufficient selling by shorts between 3:30pm and 4:00pm to counterbalance the buying by MMs or sellers of expiring options.

Of the market makers balancing their holdings theory vs. a big seller of options shooting to move the SP to 260 theory, I lean towards the latter, and here's why. If it was just market makers balancing their holdings, the selling could have been spread out during the final half hour of trading so that all is in balance at day's end and no final-minute buying spree of 650K+ shares would have been needed. Instead, we saw a huge quantity of selling and a price spike up to EXACTLY 260.00. For this reason, I am going with someone protecting 260 strike options they sold (probably sold both puts and calls and would make out like bandits if SP closed at exactly 260, which it did.

In a very real sense, the short manipulators yesterday stood in the way of a much more powerful manipulator yesterday, and the big dog prevailed in the final minute with shear brute force.

Looked at from the short's viewpoint, Friday was a mess. The daily chart shows a big drop by 2:00pm, which was great as far as the shorts were concerned, but buying by longs and market makers or option sellers in the afternoon started eroding the gains of the shorts quickly, and so a cap was needed near 258 to stop the recovery. Shorts must have been doing some serious short-selling to keep the cap intact, and in the final minute, to their utter chagrin, hundreds of thousands of shares of buying popped up, which not only made much of their selling on Friday unprofitable, but also messed with their ability to extract themselves intact from the day's trading and remain neutral short interest change on Friday. Monday mornings can be notoriously volatile in a positive direction.

BTW, on an entirely different subject, the best clue we had that "Bored Elon Musk" was being written by Elon himself was the fact that Maye Musk was following Bored Elon Musk on Twitter and Maye follows very few accounts.

All fascinating really.... And I'm guessing that some of what you say here makes some sense, but.....have to ask the obvious question...

You make it sound like the "shorts" are the only ones driving thing the SP around like they're the only ones that have any bearing on pushing the stock around, but help me here...
And feel free to refine my numbers to be more accurate...these were just off the top of my head...

There are around 170 million shares around... All held by "longs...
Then there are another 30+ million shares that are (borrowed) shorts....
Plus, there are another 30+ million LONGS that bought the shares the "shorts" borrowed into existence...

So, we have 200+ million shares held by longs...
And we have 30+ million shares held by shorts...
A factor of almost 7 to 1, longs vs. shorts...

Yet it's the shorts that control the price up and down??
No credit for the price declines, due to long's liquidation, in your analysis?
That....is just fascinating...
 
All fascinating really.... And I'm guessing that some of what you say here makes some sense, but.....have to ask the obvious question...

You make it sound like the "shorts" are the only ones driving thing the SP around like they're the only ones that have any bearing on pushing the stock around, but help me here...
And feel free to refine my numbers to be more accurate...these were just off the top of my head...

There are around 170 million shares around... All held by "longs...
Then there are another 30+ million shares that are (borrowed) shorts....
Plus, there are another 30+ million LONGS that bought the shares the "shorts" borrowed into existence...

So, we have 200+ million shares held by longs...
And we have 30+ million shares held by shorts...
A factor of almost 7 to 1, longs vs. shorts...

Yet it's the shorts that control the price up and down??
No credit for the price declines, due to long's liquidation, in your analysis?
That....is just fascinating...
170,000,000 Total Shares
-40,000,000 Held By Musk
-90,000,000 Held by institutions and early retail longs with strong hands (T. Rowe Price alone holds 17,000,000 shares, doubt they are selling at these levels)
=40,000,000 shares that weak longs and institutions trade with

So yes, shorts can control the price

*Forgot to add the Saudi's own 8,000,000 shares, and probably accumulated more at these depressed prices. I feel like this stock is a coiled spring and will jump just like AMD did from $9 to $34
 
All fascinating really.... And I'm guessing that some of what you say here makes some sense, but.....have to ask the obvious question...

You make it sound like the "shorts" are the only ones driving thing the SP around like they're the only ones that have any bearing on pushing the stock around, but help me here...
And feel free to refine my numbers to be more accurate...these were just off the top of my head...

There are around 170 million shares around... All held by "longs...
Then there are another 30+ million shares that are (borrowed) shorts....
Plus, there are another 30+ million LONGS that bought the shares the "shorts" borrowed into existence...

So, we have 200+ million shares held by longs...
And we have 30+ million shares held by shorts...
A factor of almost 7 to 1, longs vs. shorts...

Yet it's the shorts that control the price up and down??
No credit for the price declines, due to long's liquidation, in your analysis?
That....is just fascinating...

No there are 170 milion shares. There are 30 milion shares or so loaned out by longs to sell short. These were bought up. That did not create any new shares. If tesla were to hold a share holder vote. Only 170 million votes could be cast.

Even short sellers who failed to cover didn't create any new real shares. They created fake shares that have no rights associated with them.
 
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wierd.... My post was supposed to start with smokies quote. I have no idea were the text above that came from.

Mod: you probably started to reply to the other post, then decided not to, but the software 'helpfully' remembered it. Trips me up all the time. I edited it out for you. --ggr
 
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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

I'm about as unsophisticated as can be but it seems to me the short's are in it for trading while longs like me are sitting pat, i.e., not trading.

I suspect you have nothing to learn from Papafox, no? If I'm right, it would seem you are not here for discussion, just to provoke. A waste of my time and others are too sophisticated to even bite this much.
 
Problem with Jonas is he's a automotive analyst. Energy is not his expertise. This is lost by most. I know someone who works at Morgan Stanley as an Industrial & Basic Materials Sector Specialist. Jonas knows nothing about energy.
Tesla Energy is going to melt down the Jonas matrix pretty soon. It is massive and has evolving revenue stream over time.

People will buy solar. Will buy batteries. As solar +storage networked neighborhoods grow, Tesla will sell energy services. From top to bottom as aggregators of networked distributed energy production. All continuous revenue streams over long contracts. And all this will be done through Tesla Energy OS... software product.

So they make money selling solar and batteries. Then make money off of energy services from the same solar and batteries. Then recycling, which is another evolutionary revenue stream later on.

We are just at the tip of the iceberg and Jonas will see it soon enough. The future of Energy is really going to be be defined by Tesla and companies that follow its lead down the line.

A massive massive market shift is about to happen, and the energy world is still looking in the rear view mirror at oil and gas. Pride happens before the fall.
 
A massive massive market shift is about to happen, and the energy world is still looking in the rear view mirror at oil and gas. Pride happens before the fall.

The ICE resale value crash has already been discussed in this thread, but I haven't heard much discussion on the disappearance of gas stations. There's already huge numbers of gas stations closing while EV charging stations are being built all over the place. Every gas station that closes chips away at the biggest advantage ICE cars have: lots of places to refuel. I think we are looking at a gas station death spiral in the next few years which will make the shift to EVs happen even faster. Gas stations will disappear sooner than you think
 
A strong maybe.......highly confident actually.

View attachment 345785
Have to always make a note that anything Elon says is a prediction at the time, and is subject to change in reality. This is the standard warning on conference calls.

Elon also said in the same conference call Tesla may not be cash flow positive if they pay off big loans, but you might have stopped reading soon after you found your bit.

Some shorts are calling for SEC investigations on some of these predictions.

They know investigation is frivolous. However the rumor tactic to spread fear and confusion is the actual goal. Anything to get people to hit the sell button.
 
I tend to agree...largely...but there are a lot of unknowns.
In a world with rational actors then yes this would happen. But we have so many different forces all pulling and pushing in different directions it is hard to know if/when this will happen. I think if you asked a random person if they know about the IPCC report IPCC - SR15 you will get a blank stare from a depressingly high percentage.

Then you have reports like this Tesla's Electric Cars Aren't as Green as You Might Think and that is a sorta kinda friendly article. If your news feed tends towards a less than ECO friendly slant you probably see this Swedish study calls for smaller EV batteries, finds Tesla more polluting than an 8-year-old car | Autovista Group.

So I think while most here think/want the change to happen fast....a lot of forces want the opposite.

Per the article:
"The main environmental impact comes from the processing of these raw materials and the production of the lithium-ion batteries in factories, which accounts for around 80% of the environmental impact."

For an apples to apples comparison, we should also know the totality of the environmental impact of processing fossil fuels, not just the emissions coming out of the tailpipe. We need to know all pollution arising from drilling for oil, refining, transporting, etc.
 
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