TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tivoboy]

Audi e-tron revealed, a non-worry for Tesla. It has good styling for those looking for aggressive lines and grilles, good acceleration 0-60 3.5, and respectable range (248.5 miles). Only posting this comment here because this is yet another "Tesla Killer" revealed and crossed off the list. Sorry but this car isn't going to affect Tesla sales, therefore it should not affect stock prices either.

Next?

I'll take the other side of that bet.. the new Audi e-tron sedan is built on the Porsche Taycan platform. In a year or so when released, it will still come with about a 10% discount in north america (federal tax credits still in place for Audi) So, it'll take some of the Tesla S sales for sure and it won't be 1-3%,

 

[KarenRei]

I'll take the other side of that bet.. the new Audi e-tron sedan is build on the Porsche Taycon platform. In a year or so when released, it will still come with about a 10% discount in north america (federal tax credits still in place for Audi) So, it'll take some of the Tesla S sales for sure and it won't be 1-3%,

You think the federal EV tax credit structure will remain unchanged one year from now? I'll take that bet.

Almost nobody in the US government likes the current EV credit system. Conservatives want to remove it and liberals want to renew / reform it, but almost nobody is happy with a system that uses federal money to reward foreign competitors at the expense of US manufacturers (Tesla, GM).

I expect a compromise: a limited renewal with the removal of the per-manufacturer limit - rather, a simple time-based phaseout for everyone.

 

[tivoboy]

You think the federal EV tax credit structure will remain unchanged one year from now? I'll take that bet.

Yeah, I'll take that bet too..

 

[SpaceCash]

So, it'll take some of the Tesla S sales for sure and it won't be 1-3%,

Absolutely, unequivocally, unforgivably false statement.

Tesla is supply constrained, not demand constrained. Those who opt for an Etron over an S take exactly NOTHING from Tesla, who will sell that S to another person. Possibly another person in another country.

Get it right. This is FUD.

 

[KarenRei]

Absolutely, unequivocally, unforgivably false statement.

Tesla is supply constrained, not demand constrained. Those who opt for an Etron over an S take exactly NOTHING from Tesla, who will sell that S to another person. Possibly another person in another country.

Get it right. This is FUD.

Exactly. Tesla makes a relatively fixed number of S+X vehicles per year. The global EV market keeps growing. Therefore, by definition, Tesla is planning on S+X market share declining. They may change this strategy at some point, but so long as they're based on the 18650s, the plan is for them to lose market share.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Absolutely, unequivocally, unforgivably false statement.

Tesla is supply constrained, not demand constrained. Those who opt for an Etron over an S take exactly NOTHING from Tesla, who will sell that S to another person. Possibly another person in another country.

Get it right. This is FUD.

In fairness, it’s a prediction of the future. Anything could happen in 2-3 years, can’t say anything is unequivocally false for that.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Ah, I see the PREVIOUSLY CAUGHT ASTROTURFER has returned to our forum.

Mods, you know what to do.

(We seriously need permabans for astroturfers. On an IP level. Shorts who are on the level are very welcome here. Liars are not.)

Exactly what I was thinking. Seems like a fishing question to draw out the arguments while appearing harmless.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Re, E-Tron's "150kW" charging:

1) There are almost no charging stations in the world today which can provide that. All of those "175kW" and the like CCS stations are V1 CCS, which has a max 200A limit; to get 175kW you have to charge at nearly 900V, which no EV supports. Real EVs cap out at 80-90kW on them. Only V2 CCS can handle 150kW for "normal voltage" cars (max current 500A, liquid cooled cables). These are the "350kW" stations that they're only just beginning to install. Unless E-Tron can switch halves of its battery pack from parallel to serial (ala Taycan) to up the voltage for charging, it cannot get 150kW from current chargers. Not that there's even that many V1 chargers at 150kW+.....

2) Model 3 appears to be at least 150kW, possibly 180kW. We've been told that it already supports higher charge powers, and that all of Tesla's current production line can already handle V3 powers. The battery pack supports 525A, so capping out over 180kW at realistic voltages for max current. Ingineerix argued that the cabling only supports 430A, so over 150kW at realistic voltages. But that's A) at steady-state temperatures, B) without any heat-sink effect, and C) without any air circulation. I'm not sure that all three of these conditions apply to the Model 3's charge cabling (the first one certainly doesn't for the first couple minutes of warmup time)

FWIW, Audi claims the eTron GT can charge at 800V, suggesting they’d get maximum charging speed on the v1 CCS you mentioned.

 

[SpaceCash]

by definition, Tesla is planning on S+X market share declining. They may change this strategy at some point, but so long as they're based on the 18650s, the plan is for them to lose market share.

I don't even think the plan is to lose market share!

I'm quite positive that if S&X production output doubled TODAY, they would still sell every single one, regardless of Etron availability. The Etron's release is a good thing for Tesla and the future of EVs in general. Always been the goal: to guide the world into a renewable energy reality with electric cars for everyone

 

[SpaceCash]

In fairness, it’s a prediction of the future. Anything could happen in 2-3 years, can’t say anything is unequivocally false for that.

Respectfully disagree that there's any doubt here. In 2-3 years, those automakers who genuinely make an effort to produce compelling EVs will still be playing catchup, and all the while helping Tesla create a better future

 

[azaz]

Respectfully disagree that there's any doubt here. In 2-3 years, those automakers who genuinely make an effort to produce compelling EVs will still be playing catchup, and all the while helping Tesla create a better future

based on this logic the industry leader would always stay the industry leader. its like saying android could've never caught up to the iPhone. competition will borrow/steal and their path will not be as difficult as Tesla's was because Tesla went first. eventually there will be compelling EVs on par with Tesla.

 

[tivoboy]

Absolutely, unequivocally, unforgivably false statement.

Tesla is supply constrained, not demand constrained. Those who opt for an Etron over an S take exactly NOTHING from Tesla, who will sell that S to another person. Possibly another person in another country.

Get it right. This is FUD.

We’ll see. Twt

I am 100% certain that there are Western Europeans and Brits who would buy this Audi instead of the Tesla S. ergo a Tesla S sales loss

Same with some Americans. There are some who would buy the Tesla but would prefer the newness and cache of the newest latest hottest hard to get e-tron

Frankly I’m not really sure why you have to label this FUD but then again I’m not surprised.

 

[M3Rider]

They just revealed a new e-Tron sport sedan. On that note, I’m still shocked how they’re able to get such poor mileage out of such a large battery. My S 75 has better range than their new car with its 95kWh battery...

This article says 100kwh battery
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

I'd rather keep my 310 miles from 75kwh battery in model 3 vs their 248 miles, thank you.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I'll take the other side of that bet.. the new Audi e-tron sedan is built on the Porsche Taycan platform. In a year or so when released, it will still come with about a 10% discount in north america (federal tax credits still in place for Audi) So, it'll take some of the Tesla S sales for sure and it won't be 1-3%,

Disagreement is with last sentence. If it sells it will take ICEV sales, not Tesla S sales.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Respectfully disagree that there's any doubt here. In 2-3 years, those automakers who genuinely make an effort to produce compelling EVs will still be playing catchup, and all the while helping Tesla create a better future

I mean, the Fremont factory could get hit by a meteor and explode tomorrow(killing Elon Musk in the process). That’d be pretty effective in making Audi steal away market share.

I’m not saying I think @tivoboy ‘s prediction will happen, or even is likely, just that I don’t feel comfortable saying any prediction of the future is 100% right or wrong.

 

[SpaceCash]

based on this logic the industry leader would always stay the industry leader. its like saying android could've never caught up to the iPhone. competition will borrow/steal and their path will not be as difficult as Tesla's was because Tesla went first. eventually there will be compelling EVs on par with Tesla.

Ok but surely you understand that the market is still drastically undersaturated with EVs, and in 2-3 years it still will be. Global battery production on its own is one limiting factor. These thought experiments are missing the point. Try this angle again in 15 years, maybe.

 

[Carl Raymond]

In fairness, it’s a prediction of the future. Anything could happen in 2-3 years, can’t say anything is unequivocally false for that.

Agreed.

Replace
"Absolutely, unequivocally, unforgivably false statement" with
"Absolutely, unequivocally, unforgivably false logic".

 

[guidooo]

Re, E-Tron's "150kW" charging:

1) There are almost no charging stations in the world today which can provide that. All of those "175kW" and the like CCS stations are V1 CCS, which has a max 200A limit; to get 175kW you have to charge at nearly 900V, which no EV supports. Real EVs cap out at 80-90kW on them. Only V2 CCS can handle 150kW for "normal voltage" cars (max current 500A, liquid cooled cables). These are the "350kW" stations that they're only just beginning to install.

Could be true, while above statement could be far in the rear view mirror soon too

To name just one company; Fastned currently has 12 locations in the Netherlands (and 6 in Germany) that provide 175 KW charging service for cars able to charge at that rate. To place that number in perspective, currently there are 16 Tesla super charger stations in the Netherlands (and many more in Germany). The number of charging locations with both companies are expected to grow fast. I assume other charging providers will grow their 175 KW locations reasonably fast too.

When Fastned says a specific vehicle will charge at 150 KW at it's chargers, then to me it will unless proven otherwise. (I cann't try it out with my first generation Leaf.).

175 kW fast chargers

 

[anthonyj]

I’ve had two Porsche’s in the past 3 years. Let me tell you, they are so technologically dated. Tesla is light years ahead. Doubt Taycan will be any different.

 

[tivoboy]

I’ve had two Porsche’s in the past 3 years. Let me tell you, they are so technologically dated. Tesla is light years ahead. Doubt Taycan will be any different.

Not trying to peddle FUD here but from the people I know who have driven the Taycan they would probay disagree with you.

( and I only said probably to soften the blow)