TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RobStark]

. A Superbowl ad would be quite reasonable to me.

* A second reason is that advertising dollars to network television is a good FUD abatement strategy. FUD doesn't exist without the media.

A 30 second SB commercial cost ~$5M depending on when it airs.

It would be reshown and talked about all over the media dozens of times.

I wouldn't advertise a car per se but make it a brand building ad.

Talk about The Mission. And the fact that Teslas are Made in America by an American company that are powered almost exclusively by American sourced energy which leads to National Energy Independence. Waive the Stars and Stripes a little. Chevy and Ford Truck Style.

 

[Fact Checking]

Talk about The Mission. And the fact that Teslas are Made in America by an American company that are powered almost exclusively by American sourced energy which leads to National Energy Independence. Waive the Stars and Stripes a little. Chevy and Ford Truck Style.

Yes, yes and yes: help preserve America, stars and stripes, the veterans that work at Tesla, the exciting projects, and maybe Starman in a Tesla, riding the Heavy ...

If done right it could be a Superbowl ad for the history books.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Europe +1,13% or 6,3% to the ATH

That's ~ $367.27 USD in Frankfurt right now.

 

[Buckminster]

Yes, yes and yes: help preserve America, stars and stripes, the veterans that work at Tesla, the exciting projects, and maybe Starman in a Tesla, riding the Heavy ...

If done right it could be a Superbowl ad for the history books.

You guys and the Super Bowl ad....

John Lewis Christmas advert is far more important:

 

[BioSehnsucht]

You guys and the Super Bowl ad....

John Lewis Christmas advert is far more important:

Hey, who started cutting onions in here ?

 

[Dreadnought]

OT

OT


Indeed... I'm looking forward to someone timing the car elevator, which will be the throughput-limiting factor. Betcha it's low throughput. (Not to mention the durability and mass production questions...)

Sister company Tesla has a reputation for knowing how to build powerful electric motors. The limiting factor would IMHO be the tolerance of passengers for zero-G on the way down. Kidding aside, I understand that they are repurposing the hole through which the TBM got extracted with an elevator. Cheaper and more throughput would be ramps.

 

[Mich]

Why, just why does Elon say they are paying cash if they don't?
He didn't say they could pay cash, he said the are going to pay cash!


What has changed?

Maybe the growth plans accelerated and capital is a limiting factor again? This would be great. But again, why did Elon said they are going to pay cash?

Is it possible that is is better for them to execute the hedge options and buy back the shares? so paying in shares without dilution?

 

[Fact Checking]

OT

Indeed... I'm looking forward to someone timing the car elevator, which will be the throughput-limiting factor. Betcha it's low throughput. (Not to mention the durability and mass production questions...)

Note that throughput, while important in the short run, literally doesn't matter in the long run: there's plenty of free space underground, and once built such an access point is essentially forever.

It will be much more distributed, very different from the train network:

• There's very little crowding out: there's almost infinite free space in all 3 dimensions underground, compared to an urban surface.
• Every home or apartment complex can build an access point to the Boring Network.
• As size and density of the Boring Network increases the cost of new access points decreases: the next tunnel will be closer and economies of scale improve.
• Once the network is large enough such access points will significantly increase real estate value, in urban areas they'll likely be built when the underground garage space and the foundation of a new home/structure is constructed.
• Depth of tunnels can be used as an advantage in the future: a vacuum tunnel can drop to 100m depth (on a gentle slope) to gain speed via gravity alone, for longer trips. Much less cooling required and utilizes deeper rock layers better.

There are incredible advantages of a tunnel network compared to train networks, both in terms of physics and economics.

Elon's Boring Tunnels are going to replace trains and maybe even planes for both passenger and commercial transport, for everything except oversized items that don't fit into tunnels.

The only disadvantage of them is that the tunnels don't exist yet - but that can be fixed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In early August Elon did sent "the tweet" that made the stock jump from 340 to 378 in one day, the top was $387

Incorrect, and commonly misrepresented in the media. TSLA jumped from the low 340s to the high 350s in the morning of Aug 8 after the Financial Times broke the story (12:18 pm EST) of the $2B Saudi investment in Tesla.

The SP only ran up another $6 after Elon's tweet (12:48 pm EST) before NASDAQ halted trading, but the SP was increasing rapidly anyway. The tweet acted as confirmation of Saudi interest in Tesla.

Further runup to 387 after trading resumed in the last 10 min of the day was likely a squeeze mixed with short seller panic. There was definately a margin call the following morning, which also drove up prices at the opening of the session.

Elon did nothing wrong, and acted throughout to protect retail investors like us. I'm thankful he is CEO.

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

Why, just why does Elon say they are paying cash if they don't?

Thats wrong, they are paying cash: 50% cash, 50% stock - and only if the note holders are asking for stock conversion.

This gives Tesla up to $460m more cash to spend on China Gigafactory, the Model Y expansion and the Semi - i.e. faster growth, without new debt.

Model 3 demand is much higher than expected, so investing into growth is a good move - and 50%/50% is a good balance.

The only people who should be unhappy about this are the $TSLA shorts.

 

[Mich]

Why, just why does Elon say they are paying cash if they don't?
He didn't say they could pay cash, he said the are going to pay cash!


What has changed?

Maybe the growth plans accelerated and capital is a limiting factor again? This would be great. But again, why did Elon said they are going to pay cash?

Is it possible that is is better for them to execute the hedge options and buy back the shares? so paying in shares without dilution?

What happens if Tesla executes their hedge options? I read that it's about 2.5m worth of stock options.

They would need to pay cash to execute the options (what was it? approx 360 per share). So this 2.5m shares would get out of the market for some time! Some time later (minutes? days? weeks?) these shares will be transfered to the bond owners so they are back to the market. This could have a huge impact. I don't like the word "squeeze" any more, but I'd like to have people pay for betting against Tesla.

 

[Mich]

PreMarket reached 370$!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why, just why does Elon say they are paying cash if they don't?
He didn't say they could pay cash, he said the are going to pay cash!

What has changed?

Nothing, This is another B.S. story by Dana Hull. Notice that the story itself doesn't say a 50/50 split cash/shares, that's been added by 3rd parties reporting on her story.

Further, their is no source from Tesla making that statement, only unsubstantiated interpretations of the language in the bond terms of reference.

In sum, Tesla can pay $360 cash, and have their Underwriters provide any surplus value over $360 in shares from the hedges owned by the Underwriters.

Bloomberg as usual, and D.H. especially, are full of *sugar*. They don't know anything, just seeking clicks and hoping to move the SP. Good luck with that.

Bah!

 

[Tslynk67]

 

[Artful Dodger]

What happens if Tesla executes their hedge options? I read that it's about 2.5m worth of stock options.

Telsa doesn't hold those hedges, the Underwriter of the bonds does. The Underwriter will lose money if they have to pay out with the SP over 360, vs them cashing out the hedges themselves.

 

[avoigt]

Incorrect, and commonly misrepresented in the media. TSLA jumped from the low 340s to the high 350s in the morning of Aug 8 after the Financial Times broke the story (12:18 pm EST) of the $2B Saudi investment in Tesla.

The SP only ran up another $6 after Elon's tweet (12:48 pm EST) before NASDAQ halted trading, but the SP was increasing rapidly anyway. The tweet acted as confirmation of Saudi interest in Tesla.

Further runup to 387 after trading resumed in the last 10 min of the day was likely a squeeze mixed with short seller panic. There was definately a margin call the following morning, which also drove up prices at the opening of the session.

Elon did nothing wrong, and acted throughout to protect retail investors like us. I'm thankful he is CEO.

Cheers!

View attachment 358891

Well, lets not go into a discussion why the SP jumped that day because both of us just don't know and will never know. Stock movement interpretations are always speculations and in the aftermath people including you and me are looking for explanations but we only can speculate.

Secondly, the point I made was not what causes the SP to jump that day but what the underlying fundamentals has been versus where we are today. Maybe I did not bring that over clear enough.

So I understand the point you are trying to make but what I was trying to express was a very different topic.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Market Summary > Tesla Inc
NASDAQ: TSLAClosed: Dec. 7, 4:07 a.m. EST
Pre-market 370.00 +6.94 (1.91%)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, lets not go into a discussion why the SP jumped that day because both of us just don't know and will never know. Stock movement interpretations are always speculations and in the aftermath people including you and me are looking for explanations but we only can speculate.

Do you belief in causality? Tell me why the SP jumped $15 BEFORE Elon's tweet.

Thanks.

 

[Tslynk67]

That's quite high pre-market volume, which bodes well for a very green day usually, barring macro of major FUD, drunk rockets landing on top of GF1, etc.

What could be the catalysts:
- OI45 Tweeting that the trade talks with China are going smoothly and could all be resolved within 90 days
- The Fed talking down another rate rise
- SP closing above 360 yesterday
- New legal hire being a very strong pick
- Clarity on the repayment of March convertible bonds
- GF3 progressing

It's all happening!

One thing we haven't discussed recently is the appointment of new board members, this must be due soon, no?

 

[FrANce]

Model 3 Europe update! European customer calls regarding the Model 3 are directed to a central call center. I talked to a charming lady and asked her if there's a lot of interest, to which she laughed and said they're incredibly busy... they get around 2000 calls a day (up from 400 calls/day pre Model 3 configuration invitation). Regarding production rate: they've been informed that a production rate of 5000 Model 3s/week is 'easy' and that 7000/week is reached occasionally.