TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Don't we need 28,355 for Model S +X to meet 100k guidance?

Indeed - I edited that characterization to a "miss" as well.

 

[NicoV]

Elon liked this tweet from a random science account a few days back:
World and Science on Twitter
The Earth is traveling around the sun at 67,000 miles per hour or about 18.6 miles per second!

I have collected current Model 3 Q4 forecasts based on detailed models with a public methodology. These can be categorised into four different modelling methods each using different data.

I think there is a fifth method: Elon leaking the numbers by liking a random twitter post.

 

[FrANce]

For anyone who thinks they can outsmart Mr.Market, take a look at last weeks' TSLA chart. Nobody foresaw that. Nobody. I can't even land a Lunar Lander on that baby! It sure is nice to be a Tesla long.
View attachment 364729

Exept for tivoboy:

On Dec 17 when SP bounced around 355

Resistance has become support. We’ve tested here a couple times now. The more we test the stronger it becomes. But if we break significantly below- well then cancel Christmas.

On Dec 20

December is a QUADRUPLE witching month, so EXTRA witching
I know NOBODY wants to hear this, but 29x. coming.. maybe not today, but I think she's coming. Not a bd thing long term.

 

[Artful Dodger]

For anyone who thinks they can outsmart Mr. Market, take a look at last weeks' TSLA chart. Nobody foresaw that. Nobody.

Except for tivoboy:
tivoboy said: ↑ December is a QUADRUPLE witching month, so EXTRA witching
I know NOBODY wants to hear this, but 29x. coming..

And Lodger:

On 02:10 EST on Dec 20 Artful Dodger wrote:

This better not be Sparta.

TSLA was below $300 per share by 10:30 am on Dec 24: (+100 hrs later)

Jus' sayin', some of us knew how the shortz manipulate TSLA w/o news...

Cheers!

 

[hacer]

I have collected current Model 3 Q4 forecasts based on detailed models with a public methodology...

I have another methodology. These came to me in a dream.

3 production 57,603
S+X production 28,709
Total production 86,312

3 deliveries 60,001
S+X deliveries 30,007

 

[humbaba]

Thanks for the video and information. We did not get many insights about the status as of now which has been worrisome for many. Thats really helpful.

End of Q3 many have said that Tesla will miss numbers because the delivery process does not work, volunteers need to help out and the IT system is not able to do the job. Not to mention burst production rate is not sustainable and real production is way lower. At that stage this has led many people to believe in low deliveries despite okay production.

We all learned later that despite delivery issues and challenges they have been able to overachieve expectations on all areas.

Now end of Q4 we hear a lot about its too calm at the delivery centers and that they just not have enough demand for the 3. Not having volunteers helping is all of a sudden a negative sign and its less drama at the centers which people interpret as a negative too.

To all in doubt, no drama is a good thing!

If all works as planed you have a better productivity and its feels like calm but the throughput is higher. Not having leasing and not calling supporters to help is a clear signal that demand is healthy and according to plan and a sign that the process to deliver works according to plan. If it works according to plan we should assume that the achieve what they have been targeting for and that is delivering and producing in Q4 more than in Q3.

Get used to a no drama Tesla. Its the new Tesla.

With a more balanced board a chairwomen that does not put herself in the front row and Elon more controlled on Twitter as well and an reduced stress level simply because Tesla survived a phase in 2018 where a production clash considering the outflow of money could have had a consequence of raising money requirements which would have confirmed shorts, made investors nervous and the SP tank. That could have initiated a negative spiral making consumers nervous. All of those is gone, Tesla is in calm water now focussing on execution and avoiding drama.

You can find this confirmed in the lowest rate of negative reporting so far measured: Tesla Ending 2018 With The Most Positive News Week Thus Far — #Pravduh About #Tesla Report 17 | CleanTechnica.

This is not because all is rosy all of a sudden but because there is less incidents that is sensational enough to report on and reiterate the FUD from the past days again and again. The media does not like to report not sensational stories because they are kind of boring and the click rate is therefore low.

Let all hope Tesla is the new boring in 2019. Bad for the media and good for us investors. It will be still exciting enough though.

When I got my MR in St. Louis it didn't seem very busy to me, but they definitely had a quicker process for handing off the car than what I understood from people's comments here. In my case there was a mistake that significantly delayed the process so instead of taking 5 minutes it was more like half an hour or more. So not particularly busy, but it was a steady flow. I think there were three employees dealing with customers, some of whom were there for a test drive or others simply looking.

That was a couple of weeks ago, but definitely no drama. Although they oopsed in my case it was far less pain than when I had to go to a dealer for a replacement key. Sure, Tesla has its issues, but I think people tend to lose sight of what it is like dealing with traditional car dealers because they have largely become inured to it. (Not me though: I still complain about the key thing though it was years ago, as well as their general inability to diagnose -- much less fix -- engine problems.)

 

[Todd Burch]

There are some comments about service centers being less busy at end of quarter compared to Q3. This doesn't necessarily tell us anything about production or deliveries compared to Q3, however. Although many have pointed out that Tesla's delivery process at the service centers are likely much more efficient than Q3 and they are likely much better staffed up, we also know that Tesla has increased "home deliveries" where they direct-deliver to customer's driveways (for the very purpose of reducing load at the service center).

This was mostly a program in beta test mode in Q3. Does anyone have any gauge of how frequently Tesla is using home delivery this quarter?

 

[winfield100]

^^ <--Off topic
I am "quietly confident" after a "frank exchange of views" with some shortz that the stock price will reach the equivalent of 233.5+K lights or better, it's in the acceleration log phase, perhaps from an Abominator or Psychopaths POV, eh.
(roughly, translated, its time to be on board, boost mode) ie. the stock price will "red shift" into the distance like a punctuated singularity, eh.)
{i really dislike opthalmic migraines, but i _would_ wish them upon my worst enemies}
^^

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

When I got my MR in St. Louis it didn't seem very busy to me, but they definitely had a quicker process for handing off the car than what I understood from people's comments here. In my case there was a mistake that significantly delayed the process so instead of taking 5 minutes it was more like half an hour or more. So not particularly busy, but it was a steady flow. I think there were three employees dealing with customers, some of whom were there for a test drive or others simply looking.

That was a couple of weeks ago, but definitely no drama. Although they oopsed in my case it was far less pain than when I had to go to a dealer for a replacement key. Sure, Tesla has its issues, but I think people tend to lose sight of what it is like dealing with traditional car dealers because they have largely become inured to it. (Not me though: I still complain about the key thing though it was years ago, as well as their general inability to diagnose -- much less fix -- engine problems.)

Average new car sales per dealership in the USA in 2016 was 1,045. That's under 4 per business day.
Of course, they also sell used cars so will be busier than that, but the used car market is about 2 1/2 times the size of the new car market, so even if you ignored used car dealers that'd be only 14 per business day. It shows how ripe for disruption the market is.

 

[EinSV]

@ReflexFunds thanks for sharing your analysis.

One additional data point to add to the mix. According to @tsunamiofhurt, AlphaHat's model of foot traffic data in Tesla delivery centers through 12/16 was tracking to Q4 deliveries of ~61K Model 3s.

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

I don't have a link to the original AlphaHat analysis but their number probably needs to be adjusted for the possibility of increased (or decreased) home deliveries compared to Q3 and also for increased or decreased deliveries in the last 15 days of the quarter compared to Q3.

 

[X Fan]

Up, just under $4 in premarket.

 

[humbaba]

Average new car sales per dealership in the USA in 2016 was 1,045. That's under 4 per business day.
Of course, they also sell used cars so will be busier than that, but the used car market is about 2 1/2 times the size of the new car market, so even if you ignored used car dealers that'd be only 14 per business day. It shows how ripe for disruption the market is.

Noted, but don't mistake Tesla centers for dealerships: there are far, far, far more dealerships than Tesla centers so the average per dealership is not a useful metric for comparison.

 

[humbaba]

I've got a (lengthy) post that is not topical for this thread, but forums just confuse me and I can't figure out where to post it. So can someone help me: I'd like to share some observations about EAP/Auto Steer, where should I post them?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I cant imagine any direction but up today. This is the last chance to buy before Dec numbers, and very close to last chance before Q4, which is almost certain to be profitable, sop 2 quarters of profit.
If that is 2 quarters of GROWING profits, and deliveries are still high, then we are in a totally different ballgame.
Anybody selling today is nuts.

 

[Thumper]

The list goes on...but the current crop of villains include the Kochs, Murray, Adelson, and a fairly wide global array of semi-faceless industrial empires that are built mostly on extractive industries (this list of well known to most of us).

Don't forget the Mercers

 

[NicoV]

I've got a (lengthy) post that is not topical for this thread, but forums just confuse me and I can't figure out where to post it. So can someone help me: I'd like to share some observations about EAP/Auto Steer, where should I post them?

Wait half a day and post it on 1/1 in the new ‘mother of all Tesla threads’ thread.

 

[tivoboy]

Don't forget the Mercers

Nice profile pic. 52?

 

[winfield100]

I've got a (lengthy) post that is not topical for this thread, but forums just confuse me and I can't figure out where to post it. So can someone help me: I'd like to share some observations about EAP/Auto Steer, where should I post them?

@humbaba
OT <---
just put OT and all will be temporarily forgiven it seems
OT<---

 

[anthonyj]

Gap ups on TSLA always fill. It’s almost like a rule

 

[elasalle]

Tesla (TSLA) Price Target Raised to $550 by Global Equities' Chowdhry