TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

"...The analyst now believes Model 3 average selling prices are coming in above forecast due to stronger than expected demand for all-wheel-drive and performance configurations. He now estimates blended Model 3 ASP's will approach $60,000 in the second half of 2018. Further, Shah also anticipates cost leverage as Tesla scales to higher levels of production. Tesla can lower per unit costs considerably in the coming months, driven by improved fixed cost absorption and higher labor efficiency, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
..."

Tesla price target raised to $450 from $420 at Nomura Instinet TSLA - The Fly

The strange part is that we actually did not learn anything new concerning units per week, timeline, CFP in q3 and q4, ASP ect. compared to the past but almost all Analysts are now raising targets as if something new appeared. I did not hear one credible argumentation why.

Its like they change their mind because today is a sunny day and Elon did not behave rude..... not that I am against it but its just not credible how they work.

 

[sundaymorning]

The strange part is that we actually did not learn anything new concerning units per week, timeline, CFP in q3 and q4, ASP ect. compared to the past but almost all Analysts are now raising targets as if something new appeared. I did not hear one credible argumentation why.

Its like they change their mind because today is a sunny day and Elon did not behave rude..... not that I am against it but its just not credible how they work.

Analysts generally need more hand holding than we do before being bullish. They’re just not as up to date on the day to day of Tesla as we are. Sure they get to ask questions during CC, but those questions are what we already know. We need people like Andrea James.

 

[Waiting4M3]

The strange part is that we actually did not learn anything new concerning units per week, timeline, CFP in q3 and q4, ASP ect. compared to the past but almost all Analysts are now raising targets as if something new appeared. I did not hear one credible argumentation why.

Its like they change their mind because today is a sunny day and Elon did not behave rude..... not that I am against it but its just not credible how they work.

The take away apparently is that analysts can only believe Elon's forecasts that are < 1 month away. Projecting 5k/wk at the end of June, in early June, is OK. But giving the same projection in early May? that's just crazy talk

 

[Compton]

The strange part is that we actually did not learn anything new concerning units per week, timeline, CFP in q3 and q4, ASP ect. compared to the past but almost all Analysts are now raising targets as if something new appeared. I did not hear one credible argumentation why.

Its like they change their mind because today is a sunny day and Elon did not behave rude..... not that I am against it but its just not credible how they work.

Key point starts at 1 min 30 s.

 

[CaliBear1]

Edit: Waiting since September 2012. That 's almost six years....and it was worth the wait.
Also meant to include the entire buying experience (ie. no Dealers) was awesome. On-Line ordering. Pick-up was great, arrived 1/2 before my appointment, had group instruction tutorial for 1/2 hr, was taken by Tesla rep to see the car and inspect it at exactly the specified time. My vanity plates were already installed (you do have to provide your vanity plates a few days ahead of time if not standard plates), did the paperwork (which took no more than three minutes), was asked to wait in the lounge and within ten minutes another Tesla crew took us out to the car, completed all the car pre-sets (and there are many) for both of us and answered any questions we had. Then the Tesla crew said, Congratulations, and I was thinking to myself....like what, it's mine? You mean I can drive it off the lot?

In California, you cannot use a "3" to simulate an "E." Ridiculous. My clever choice for a personalized plate was rejected for doing something similar to you.

Enjoy your new ride!

 

[Earlian]

What matters are longs who buy with conviction. Why longs should buy is much more important and interesting than why shorts should cover because if you have the former, you need nothing else for the latter.

Well, the reasons, why longs and other buyers are constanly going to load in the next weeks are simple:

1. E.M. already screamed out loud, that the train is ready to leave the station.
2. The train driver got on board on Wednesday (sh-meeting, with emphasizing the 5k/week end of June and the followed almost 10% jump)
3. The last call is about to come (all that M3 vin trackers)
4. The train will definitely start, between today and July 15th, 2018 !!! (Tesla confirming a 5k/week rate, BUT maybe before they do and maybe even before the last call)

Since nobody knows the exact date -> Every day could be the last day for the departure and while the ticket price already rises, we can observe pushes and shoves.

So, while the timeframe moves (with unpredictable accelerations) unstoppable towards day 0, nobody wants to be the one, who missed the train!

Happy vacation everyone.

(Disclaimer: Stockmarket, you now the drill.)

 

[Starno]

Key point starts at 1 min 30 s.

For me, the best analogy to date, is from Warren Buffett.

Imagine you buy a farm for 1 million dollars.

You're not going to care if 3 months later, the farm is worth 1,2 millions or 800k.

When you buy the farm you're gonna care how many chicken you can have, how many eggs will they make etc. each years. And make a consistent profit, and upgrade new machines who's going to make the farm even more efficient etc.

You won't care how much the farm is worth every 3 months right ?

Maybe 3 or 4 years later you will care, if you have a better idea than having a farm, or you want to buy an other farm....

 

[Words of HABIT]

Did you get the rust protection package or scotch seat protection?

There is no upselling. The sales experience is painless.

 

[wipster]

There is no upselling. The sales experience is painless.

That's great to hear, however methinks that was meant as humor...

 

[JRP3]

One of the ways I watch sentiment on the thread is to observe how much focus there is on shirts rather than on other longs.

Those Damn shirts!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Those Damn shirts!

I try to avoid shirts whenever possible!

Dan

 

[wipster]

Those Damn shirts!

Shirts happen!

 

[JRP3]

Topless! T_O_P_L_E_S_S!

*I expect no one to get the reference

 

[LordAstinus]

The strange part is that we actually did not learn anything new concerning units per week, timeline, CFP in q3 and q4, ASP ect. compared to the past but almost all Analysts are now raising targets as if something new appeared. I did not hear one credible argumentation why.

Its like they change their mind because today is a sunny day and Elon did not behave rude..... not that I am against it but its just not credible how they work.

By fear of looking dumb to some of their audience? It was evident for everyone who saw it that he was serious about the 5K/wk, Q3/Q4 profitability, ... So now is better to correct path than too late and lose the bit of credibility they have with some of their readers/listeners...

 

[wipster]

By fear of looking dumb to some of their audience? It was evident for everyone who saw it that he was serious about the 5K/wk, Q3/Q4 profitability, ... So now is better to correct path than too late and lose the bit of credibility they have with some of their readers/listeners...

I concur, and along with appearing serious, more than anything else he appeared confident, happy, and grateful... to the associates that busted their butts to make it through production hell because they believed in his (and their) mission and vision and to the shareholders who in turn had confidence that they would solve the puzzle and did not give up on the Tesla team. It seemed obvious to me that the light in the tunnel in getting brighter by the day, week, and quarter and barring unforeseen incidents we've turned the corner and all the planning and investments (superchargers everywhere, gigafactories, making bets with Australia, alien dreadnaughts) will pay off to make Tesla the company that really will change the way we live our lives and run our businesses.

It's been a while since he could honestly say that and be believed and it really showed, to me at least and apparently to most everybody else... even some of the shirts!

 

[AZRI11]

Topless! T_O_P_L_E_S_S!

*I expect no one to get the reference

I love your salamander tattoo.

 

[defc0n]

To me, TSLA right now has:

1. Almost certainly a huge investor in China (cough Tencent cough) to fund the next gigafactory.
2. Soon to be cash flow positive in upcoming quarters.
3. Some of the best selling models in their class and best performance specs.
4. What appears to be the beginning of a breakout in its chart.
5. Very high level of short interest.
6. Macros starting to once again picking up where they left off, along with strong economy / gas prices.

The probability of a large rise over the next several weeks is extremely good. Also, a friendly reminder that historically I’ve been quite bearish in TSLA the past year or so, until the fall below 250.

The main risk, and what increasingly appears to be a very small one as each day goes by, is if the model 3 has a huge problem that requires a recall.

The upcoming price levels I’m looking at now are:

- 352, almost a sure bet at this point fairly soon
- 380, its been there before, why not again?
- 420, risky bet, but believable with profitability
- 500, if all the stars align and the hype train keeps it going

Haven’t decided what my move is going to be. I’m thinking I’ll want to stick around for 2018Q4 - 2019Q1 as that should be peak hype with sales and revenue.

I’ll revisit as news and sentiment becomes available.

 

[22522]

To me, TSLA right now has:

1. Almost certainly a huge investor in China (cough Tencent cough) to fund the next gigafactory.
2. Soon to be cash flow positive in upcoming quarters.
3. Some of the best selling models in their class and best performance specs.
4. What appears to be the beginning of a breakout in its chart.
5. Very high level of short interest.
6. Macros starting to once again picking up where they left off, along with strong economy / gas prices.

The probability of a large rise over the next several weeks is extremely good. Also, a friendly reminder that historically I’ve been quite bearish in TSLA the past year or so, until the fall below 250.

The main risk, and what increasingly appears to be a very small one as each day goes by, is if the model 3 has a huge problem that requires a recall.

The upcoming price levels I’m looking at now are:

- 352, almost a sure bet at this point fairly soon
- 380, its been there before, why not again?
- 420, risky bet, but believable with profitability
- 500, if all the stars align and the hype train keeps it going

Haven’t decided what my move is going to be. I’m thinking I’ll want to stick around for 2018Q4 - 2019Q1 as that should be peak hype with sales and revenue.

I’ll revisit as news and sentiment becomes available.

Someone said the convertible bond debt becomes invisibly issued stock at $360 share price. 100 percent expect that to happen.

 

[defc0n]

Someone said the convertible bond debt becomes invisibly issued stock at $360 share price. 100 percent expect that to happen.

That’s an interesting point. I would say if some feel 360 is a given for that reason (I’m not knowledgeable enough to know the likelihood based upon those convertible bonds), then from a technical standpoint, 378+ should be practically a guarantee after 360 is hit.

I would of course expect strong resistance at 380 for the obvious reasons. If/when that day is reached, it may be a tough decision for me, as I’m quite risk adverse and don’t usually like being in individual stocks past their all time highs.

 

[RABaby]

That’s an interesting point. I would say if some feel 360 is a given for that reason (I’m not knowledgeable enough to know the likelihood based upon those convertible bonds), then from a technical standpoint, 378+ should be practically a guarantee after 360 is hit.

I would of course expect strong resistance at 380 for the obvious reasons. If/when that day is reached, it may be a tough decision for me, as I’m quite risk adverse and don’t usually like being in individual stocks past their all time highs.

380 in the past was based on expectations that have yet to be realized.

380 in the near future would be based on realization of expectations and would therefore establish a reset for future potential, but it also would actually be based on successfully accomplishing the achievement of the "unachievable" so with the evaporation of a short case, an even greater expectation could conceivably be achievable. That is what I think would launch the epic squeeze.