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tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
What the f - Elon you have to have a direct report for sales and service....
Hell I'll do it for free. But have someone.
Apparently McNeill is going to Lyft as COO. Well, enjoy running a taxi app company I guess, should be a lot simpler than changing the world John.
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At 18:01:54 it was up 5 or 1.45%, according to Nasdaq. Papafox has better words for this, but a duel is on and volume now over a million by 40k. Take a look at the trades, a share here, a share there, then 930. Sometimes, as now, more (mysize purchase) than one, and then nibbles. I once asked Papafox if that trade pattern was evidence of manipulation. He said--some qualifier--always manipulated.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Great question. Ota upgrades and how they impact gross margins. My opinion is that fsd and EAP will be 100% take rate over the life of the vehicle. Maybe not first owner or second but at some point in the life of the vehicle it will generate $8-9k for Tesla. You can bank it and no one else has anything else close.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
After hours is mixed, this was a super "tired Elon" call (understandable given yesterday's spectacular launch) with moderate financial news and both positive and negative points, though I suspect this could be received negatively in aggregate. I am stalking additional shares if price drops to my targets for sure though. There is a roadster on its way to Mars - this team will finish 2018 with Model 3's flying off the shelves.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I disagree. Biggest takeaway is the module robots work, they just have to be moved to the GF. Biggest constraint to 2,500 3's. That's great news.
p.s. I was totally wrong about customer deposits. Thought that number would be way higher. So I'm probably wrong about tomorrow
In principle we will be fine over the longer term. However, in my opinion there were far too many ifs and shoulds. The new lines are working in Germany, production should ramp smoothly once they are installed next month, etc etc. I doubt this will be received well in the short term. my .02
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
sweter
Member
I'm always surprised by these ER calls that nobody ever asks about Energy products... No updates on GF2, no updates on tiles, etc etc.
This was my take, too. I'm not overly worried--the company will be fine, and 2018 should prove a banner year overall. But the assurances of short-term 2,500 by end of March, 5,000 by end of June were very iffy. At one point Musk even mused about how they're taking all the learning from the problematic-to-manufacture 3 and applying them to the design of the Y. Which is nearly verbatim what we heard around a year ago, only with S/X learnings applied to the design of the 3. We had Elon forecasting 3-6 months at the outside for a coast-to-coast autonomous drive, released to customers by the end of that frame. Which is what we got 6ish months back. Didn't happen, and the timeline has shrunk by 0% since then. My Model 3 delivery estimate still says Dec-Feb, which is a thing that already has a zero percent chance of occurring. No discussion in the letter or call of customer impact of the next few months' ramp plans vis-a-vis prior/current estimates. And McNeil leaving, with no plans to hire anyone to handle sales/service other than the group reporting directly to Musk? Uhh.
Clearly this is difficult stuff, and I'm over-simplifying. My overall impression, though, is that we got a lot of discussion over what should happen / is expected to happen and very little we did what we said we would. Why would we take the musings over 600k 3s at Fremont seriously when expectations have been so seriously mismanaged thus far?
As a wise man once said, this was very much sizzle, very little steak.
They'll get there. I have little confidence they'll get there when they say they will. Which is pretty par for the course--but the 3, 'designed for simplified manufacturing' was supposed to be a turning point. Clearly it was not (or has not been in its first 6 months of production), and I have little faith it will turn into one in the near future.
Disclaimers: I'm not selling, not an advice, etc etc.
I do not know if people got the magnitude of uncertainty around this problem last earnings call not just in terms of software challenges, but integrating those software challenges to hardware in the line was HUGE. To take that HUGE problem and now know it is just a matter of logistics of disassembly, transport, and reassembly is well ... HUGE. This news makes me feel much more certain that the model 3 production rate will increase soon to at least the 2500 level.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I have to say that as one of the longest term Tesla bulls I'm starting to wonder if they are actually learning from their mistakes. One of my favorite Elon quotes, regarding some of their suppliers, is "Their shi!t is not together". Elon, Tesla needs to get their sh|t together.
Well, we knew that Q4 was going to be bad. And it turned out to be much worse. Much, much worse. And lots of stuff for both bulls and bears to be happy and sad about. Tesla gets to fight another day. Cash number is pretty good, but customer deposits was light. Only a $190 million increase. The Model 3 gross margin as well as solar gross margins were terrible. On the other hand, it seems that they are more certain about the ramp up, especially if the new battery pack integration tooling is ready to go in Germany and will be installed next month.
My fear is that Q1 is going to be another disaster. There were a lot of one time levers that were pulled for Q4. However, Tesla has enough cash for another quarter of disaster before turning the corner.
I am really unclear how the market will react... plenty for both sides to sling at each other.
My fear is that Q1 is going to be another disaster. There were a lot of one time levers that were pulled for Q4. However, Tesla has enough cash for another quarter of disaster before turning the corner.
I am really unclear how the market will react... plenty for both sides to sling at each other.
bdy0627
Active Member
This is my take as well. Modest drop, subject to macro action.
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