My take on the letter and call is a little different than some. As much as I'd love Tesla to beat their ramp targets, at the end of the day I don't think a month or two here or there will matter that much in the long run, although obviously it could affect short term share price.
To me the main takeaways were:
To me the main takeaways were:
- Model Y production target might be 1M per year -- details TBA in 6-9 months
- Target of half the CapEx/vehicle as Model 3
- CapEx for Model Y begins later this year
- Model 3 still on track for 25% GM
- Reasonable expectation (rough guesstimate) of 100K Semi/year in four years (2022ish)
- I believe this is the first time we've heard a number from Tesla on initial Semi production targets
- Semi specs may be exceeded
- Goal of tripling capacity of storage installs in 2018 over 2017
- Fully ramped GF2 will produce enough cells for 150K residential solar installs so WAG of ~100K solar roofs plus panels for 50K roofs
- 5K production goal by end of Q2 confirmed, with appropriate caveats
- Two identified problems for Model 3 ramp to 5K thus far:
- for one a new, validated battery module assembly is being shipped from Germany -- problem is already solved and just a timing issue
- the other (automated parts conveyance) sounds manageable
- Two identified problems for Model 3 ramp to 5K thus far:
- Cash position roughly the same at the end and beginning of Q4
- Positive earnings on a sustained basis expected starting later this year
- 1M vehicles in 2020 still in play
- Reiterates Tesla expected to grow 50% per year
- Current AP hardware still believed adequate for FSD; easy to swap out processor if needed
- As expected, any excess cash flow will be plowed back into Model 3, Y, storage, Superchargers, etc.
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