re AWD... probably takes a few months of testing, my memory is we first saw VINs in January.
I think Tesla still has reservationists available to take the first production (RWD, PUP) configuration. I think the AWD testing has begun, so Tesla can try to be in position to ship basically May and June production to Canada if pushing off crossing 200K US deliveries seems doable (i.e., extend the US full tax credit one more quarter).
I find it hard to come up with another explanation as to why Tesla not only moved Canadian reservationists up 6 months (when they announced that they pushed out many US reservation holders 6-9 months), but, also that this included moving up non-owners in Canada, and Canadians have been told they will have the dual motor and SR configuration of the car ahead of the timeframe US reservation holders (including owners) have been told these will be available.
In about a month what Tesla is doing, or trying to do, in terms of Canada and the US tax credit will probably be clear one way or the other.
As far as market action, I think it's just guesswork as to whether the ramp will move quickly in the next few weeks or not. If they don't (which is my gut feeling), I may have another chance at some trading shares. If they do, that's why I've never let go of any core shares. Making use of what the market offers seems much more satisfying than trying to predict exactly when the market will offer us any particular kind of pricing on Tesla or anything else.