TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[defc0n]

Hope I don’t regret buying today. Went against my instinct that there should still be more downside. The fact someone like me would buy has to be some sort of indicator, right?

In the end, my conviction that we are still near a macro bottom convinced me to buy TSLA, since it was also near my comfortable buying price anyway.

Hoping for some good news...

 

[phil0909]

Dude, car accidents happen and people die in them. WTF? Why should Teslas be held to an impossible standard of zero fatalities? You're ridiculous. Perhaps you need to review the NHTSA safety ratings of the Model S, then consider how drivers in other cars would have fared?

And yes, if autopilot steered right into that wall, it's still the fault of that driver. Not reviewing that tired argument from several years ago.

You've missed the point, Todd. The question at hand is what's driving the 15%+ nosedive in the stock the past two days.

I'm not holding Tesla to any standard. The stock market is saying that Tesla is falling short somewhere. I suspect the recent Uber and Tesla crashes are a significant factor. Whether that's fair or not is entirely irrelevant.

 

[Richgoogol]

21Million shares traded today. Is that a TSLA record? How many were traded yesterday? Does the fact that we stayed in the 250s with such large volume mean we have reached bottom?

Dude don’t mean to sound pessimistic but it’s still a drop of over 7%

 

[bdy0627]

Too soon. After hrs quote: 253.50

Is it down on the Popular Mechanics Model 3 Car of the Year Award, the Bloomberg Model 3 Production Tracker now showing the ramp increasing quickly to 2,000/week early in April, or the pistachio ice cream thing? Sentiment is so low for Tesla now, I think any headline, good or bad, just causes another slide.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Is it down on the Popular Mechanics Model 3 Car of the Year Award, the Bloomberg Model 3 Production Tracker now showing the ramp increasing quickly to 2,000/week early in April, or the pistachio ice cream thing? Sentiment is so low for Tesla now, I think any headline, good or bad, just causes another slide.

Everyone, stop posting. I just learned of the latest bot algorithm:

if "TSLA" in text: sell

 

[bdy0627]

Good luck with that. He's lost credibility with constant unmet promises. Doubt sophisticated mutual and hedge fund managers will fall for it, in the future.

If they are sophisticated and have the dough, they will ride this stock up and down as far as it will go in any direction. Currently, down is providing the pot of gold.

 

[Richard007]

I’m guessing the low may be $252.10.

If it goes lower I’m adding a boat load!

Already added at $324.xx, $328.xx, $291.xx, $293.xx, $262.xx all will be highly profitable trades in a short time!

 

[Tenable]

Hope I don’t regret buying today. Went against my instinct that there should still be more downside. The fact someone like me would buy has to be some sort of indicator, right?

In the end, my conviction that we are still near a macro bottom convinced me to buy TSLA, since it was also near my comfortable buying price anyway.

Hoping for some good news...

Lol I cracked and bought more as well though I adamantly kept telling myself I wouldn't. I actually believe we have more downside but I couldn't help myself.. we are in the 250s!!!! See you at 340 tomorrow

 

[bdy0627]

You've missed the point, Todd. The question at hand is what's driving the 15%+ nosedive in the stock the past two days.

I'm not holding Tesla to any standard. The stock market is saying that Tesla is falling short somewhere. I suspect the recent Uber and Tesla crashes are a significant factor. Whether that's fair or not is entirely irrelevant.

I think the point really is that Tesla has fallen very very short on positive sentiment currently. Almost any news at this point is filtered negatively towards Tesla. Popular Mechanics proclaiming Model 3 car of the year would typically command a substantial climb in share price, but that requires some positive sentiment to be present. Such a positive headline amplifies positive sentiment. At this point, since positive sentiment is so off the charts low, there is almost nothing positive to amplify. Consequently, the stock may not even move on that news. Buyers are understandably cautious with this current overly negative sentiment.

It looks like after hours, the stock moved further down on news of an additional government agency joining the investigation of the fatal Model X accident recently. Is that big negative news? Not really, but with the massively negative sentiment, such news is received as a catalyst for amplifying the negative sentiment further, dropping the share price, while positive news like the car of the year news will have little effect now. That's all that I see going on at this point. This dip has gotten to the point where it really is that simple. The market is dominated by herd-mentality. At some point in the not too distant future, there will be more positive sentiment than there is now, and the stock will climb. Shorts will start to cover, buyers will return, more shorts will cover, and the fear that longs are facing now will shift back to the shorts. They will wonder why the stock is climbing so much when nothing has changed from when they were making so much money as TSLA crashed through support after support on this dip. The billion dollar question is when.

 

[brian45011]

I can save you some time, I know how this exchange ends, it comes down to whether you believe Tesla's guidance that they will be cash flow positive once they're at 5k/wk steady M3 production.

When's that? Will pipe #1 flow net green in 2018? I've been around since Elon said Tesla was cash flow positive in the early winter of 2012; and recall several times in 2013- 2015 when he said Tesla would never need another capital raise. Everybody's projections of the future are just that "projections." Things happen and plans adapt, but I think it comes down to whether pipe #3 is restricted on in-flows for whatever reason.

 

[Starno]

I think the point really is that Tesla has fallen very very short on positive sentiment currently. Almost any news at this point is filtered negatively towards Tesla. Popular Mechanics proclaiming Model 3 car of the year would typically command a substantial climb in share price, but that requires some positive sentiment to be present. Such a positive headline amplifies positive sentiment. At this point, since positive sentiment is so off the charts low, there is almost nothing positive to amplify. Consequently, the stock may not even move on that news. Buyers are understandably cautious with this current overly negative sentiment.

It looks like after hours, the stock moved further down on news of an additional government agency joining the investigation of the fatal Model X accident recently. Is that big negative news? Not really, but with the massively negative sentiment, such news is received as a catalyst for amplifying the negative sentiment further, dropping the share price, while positive news like the car of the year news will have little effect now. That's all that I see going on at this point. This dip has gotten to the point where it really is that simple. The market is dominated by herd-mentality. At some point in the not too distant future, there will be more positive sentiment than there is now, and the stock will climb. Shorts will start to cover, buyers will return, more shorts will cover, and the fear that longs are facing now will shift back to the shorts. They will wonder why the stock is climbing so much when nothing has changed from when they were making so much money as TSLA crashed through support after support on this dip. The billion dollar question is when.

I think the " when " will be on Monday or Tuesday with the production and delivery letter.
But only if it's positive.
If it's negative, it's gonna be black friday, big time.

 

[bdy0627]

When's that? Will pipe #1 flow net green in 2018? I've been around since Elon said Tesla was cash flow positive in the early winter of 2012; and recall several times in 2013- 2015 when he said Tesla would never need another capital raise. Everybody's projections of the future are just that "projections." Things happen and plans adapt, but I think it comes down to whether pipe #3 is restricted on in-flows for whatever reason.

He is an overly optimistic guy, no question. And he doesn't seem to be able to learn to be more realistic about timelines and even financials. But are you really sure you want to bet against the guy?

 

[bdy0627]

I think the " when " will be on Monday or Tuesday with the production and delivery letter.
But only if it's positive.
If it's negative, it's gonna be black friday, big time.

I honestly just don't have any idea at this point. But, I have my plan and I'm going to keep adding if we continue dropping, but only at fairly large intervals now. $50 points ago, I couldn't see $250 in the mix. Now, I can see this ending here, $230, $220, $200, or possibly even a bit lower than that. It will end when buyers decide that they are getting such a good deal on TSLA that there is no way they are going to say no to it. So far, that price hasn't been clearly demonstrated yet. If the model 3 ramp is looking a lot better a week from now, then that number could be much higher than where we are now. That's the catalyst for regaining positive sentiment.

 

[bdy0627]

 

[phil0909]

I think the point really is that Tesla has fallen very very short on positive sentiment currently.

That answer is unsatisfying, but it may well be correct.

 

[nesgoomba]

220-250 is a good buying range. Buy option is the best choice here. Remember this, it is only going to be a temporary bounce (aka dead cat bounce). Once it bounce up for a few days, you sell it for a quick hefty profit. Use the profit to treat yourself a big nice dinner.

 

[Sanny]

Thinking about adding or not adding some at this point. The biggest question for me - why is Tesla down these days - is it because of that Model X crash, or maybe someone knows something about Model 3 production that we others do not know?

 

[anon]

Thinking about adding or not adding some at this point. The biggest question for me - why is Tesla down these days - is it because of that Model X crash, or maybe someone knows something about Model 3 production that we others do not know?

I don't see how that would apply in this case - most likely everybody assumes that Model 3 production is a disaster because of the Bloomberg tracker.

 

[nesgoomba]

Thinking about adding or not adding some at this point. The biggest question for me - why is Tesla down these days - is it because of that Model X crash, or maybe someone knows something about Model 3 production that we others do not know?

It is because people like you keep listening to the PRO side of Tesla and ignore the CON side. You should balance the PRO and CON, as if it is ying and yang.

We are not living in a Utopia world where everything is positive and flawless. This world has flaws.

 

[Todd Burch]

You've missed the point, Todd. The question at hand is what's driving the 15%+ nosedive in the stock the past two days.

I'm not holding Tesla to any standard. The stock market is saying that Tesla is falling short somewhere. I suspect the recent Uber and Tesla crashes are a significant factor. Whether that's fair or not is entirely irrelevant.

Why would a single vehicle crash cause a huge tumble in stock price, especially when said vehicles have a great safety rating?

Answer: Manipulators taking advantage of FUD. There’s not much logic to this drop. TSLA is WAY oversold right now.