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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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This is CNBC’s summary. I just don’t get it when Elon specifically said over and over that they do not need capital raise.
 

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This is CNBC’s summary. I just don’t get it when Elon specifically said over and over that they do not need capital raise.
Well they haven't done anything yet. Besides, Elon said that they wouldn't NEED to raise capital. He never said that they might WANT to if a particularly meaty project came along that would put them in a much better place in the long run.

Dan
 
You gonna translate all that for us now? LOL!

Let me guess...it all boils down to "WE'RE BANKWUPT!"

Dan

Preferably not. I simply posted it there for others to read and didn't plan to offer my opinion on it. For once you should try to read something yourself and not rely on the help of other people. Just give it a try, it's not that hard ... i know you can do it, if you really try. :)

Cheers,
YasB
 
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Why translate ?

Read the important part:

"Our production plan for Model 3 is based on many key assumptions, including:

  • that we will be able to complete ramping high volume production of Model 3 at the Tesla Factory without exceeding our projected costs and on our projected timeline;
  • that we will be able to continue to expand Gigafactory 1 in a timely manner to produce high volumes of quality lithium-ion cells to be integrated into battery modules and finished battery packs and drive unit components for Model 3, all at costs that allow us to sell Model 3 at our target gross margins;
  • that the equipment and processes which we have selected for Model 3 production will be able to accurately manufacture high volumes of Model 3 vehicles within specified design tolerances and with high quality;
  • that we will be able to maintain suppliers for the necessary components on terms and conditions that are acceptable to us and th at we will be able to obtain high-quality components on a timely basis and in the necessary quantities to support high-volume production; and
  • that we will be able to attract, recruit, hire, train and retain skilled employees to operate our planned high volume production facilities to support Model 3, including at the Tesla Factory and Gigafactory 1.

If one or more of the foregoing assumptions turns out to be incorrect, our ability to meet our Model 3 projections on time and at volumes and prices that are profitable, demand for and deliveries of Model 3, as well as our business, prospects, operating results and financial condition, may be materially and adversely impacted."
 
Why translate ?

Read the important part:

"Our production plan for Model 3 is based on many key assumptions, including:

  • that we will be able to complete ramping high volume production of Model 3 at the Tesla Factory without exceeding our projected costs and on our projected timeline;
  • that we will be able to continue to expand Gigafactory 1 in a timely manner to produce high volumes of quality lithium-ion cells to be integrated into battery modules and finished battery packs and drive unit components for Model 3, all at costs that allow us to sell Model 3 at our target gross margins;
  • that the equipment and processes which we have selected for Model 3 production will be able to accurately manufacture high volumes of Model 3 vehicles within specified design tolerances and with high quality;
  • that we will be able to maintain suppliers for the necessary components on terms and conditions that are acceptable to us and th at we will be able to obtain high-quality components on a timely basis and in the necessary quantities to support high-volume production; and
  • that we will be able to attract, recruit, hire, train and retain skilled employees to operate our planned high volume production facilities to support Model 3, including at the Tesla Factory and Gigafactory 1.
If one or more of the foregoing assumptions turns out to be incorrect, our ability to meet our Model 3 projections on time and at volumes and prices that are profitable, demand for and deliveries of Model 3, as well as our business, prospects, operating results and financial condition, may be materially and adversely impacted."

Normal practice to write everything in such documents with a disclaimer.
 
people, of course, can do whatever they want, and while I wouldn't use the term "laughable," I basically agree with you "justvisiting."

fwiw, use of the approach you mentioned (forecasting forward EPS) convinced me to put ~25% of my assets into a core TSLA position in 2012 based on weighted averaging several EPS scenarios I modeled for 2017 (with a lot of help from a report by Adam Jonas) that led me to a $175 target price. I had no idea then how the rest of the auto market would be so focused on kicking the can down the road on getting into EVs, so I had forecasted profits, rather than massive reinvestment into torrent growth for another decade plus.

Using a conservative version of this method (very conservative on the early stage businesses it's far harder to know what reasonable assumptions would be), I forecast a price of $1200-1800 c.2026.
Like i said, estimating future EPS for investment decisions is (the only?) way to invest your money, no argument there. The original poster even said that much in his follow up, only his initial post didnt have that disclaimer and made it seem that he does not care about EPS at all, which is foolish imo.
 
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EM stated on the cc that Fremont capacity is full. They can try to increase the production numbers towards 5,000/week but the jury is still out on this. Any increase beyond that is pure illusion.

The statements of EM have no value and one cannot base any forecasts on these.

And you didn’t see the contradiction in those two statements, did you?
 
They do not rule out cap increases contrary to what EM said:

"We continually evaluate our capital expenditure needs and may raise additional capital to fund the rapid growth of our business."

Page 40 of 10Q

This text has been present in all prior 10-k releases, it is part of the boilerplate stuff. Now suddenly you see this as big news. Come on...
 
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