I'm not a long and they haven't kicked me out yet.
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MacRocket
Faster than Falcon 9
Shorts have been selling like crazy lately, 41M shares shorted.
Question is, Who has been buying?
Well we know that some long term $tsla shareholding institutions have increased their holdings lately.
We also know that many longs here on TMC have increased their holdings. I have also seen here two cases where new tesla car owners have purchased $tsla shares for the first time.
Tesla shareholders are emotionally invested in this company like no other company I have ever seen.
New and old Tesla shareholders alike do not want to part with their Tesla stock in the near term.
When shorts want to cover who will be willing to sell to them?
Not many I would say and certainly not 41M worth.
This, my friends, is why we are about to have the “Short Burn of the Century “
Market veterans will be stunned by it’s scale and ferocity.
Now, all we need is a catalyst. I wonder what that will be?
Question is, Who has been buying?
Well we know that some long term $tsla shareholding institutions have increased their holdings lately.
We also know that many longs here on TMC have increased their holdings. I have also seen here two cases where new tesla car owners have purchased $tsla shares for the first time.
Tesla shareholders are emotionally invested in this company like no other company I have ever seen.
New and old Tesla shareholders alike do not want to part with their Tesla stock in the near term.
When shorts want to cover who will be willing to sell to them?
Not many I would say and certainly not 41M worth.
This, my friends, is why we are about to have the “Short Burn of the Century “
Market veterans will be stunned by it’s scale and ferocity.
Now, all we need is a catalyst. I wonder what that will be?
I'm inclined to think that the shareholder's meeting on 5th June might drop a few bomb-shells and get things moving. It would be the perfect moment as most probably have their eye on Q2 deliveries and earnings, so this could pull the rug from under them.
My guess: older, less stupid shorts.
My quess: younger, more stupid shorts.
That's the thing with a squeeze ... you cannot foretell the exact reason nor moment. Everyone, short and long, is more or less caught with pants at their knees ...
Tesla shorting is a ponzi scheme ... old shorts exit with more entering. This cycle will repeat until it will not.
sweter
Member
You got me there
But nothing wrong in trying to analyze what things mean. I generally believe Tesla at face value with a slight timeline extension if they give direct and clear guidance, but this could be read in multiple ways. (tbh I'm just anxious to see EU deliveries started to get my car
)If we assume that SR battery is the last one to be produced, then it means that ALL current US reservations need to be cleared for a new reservationist to get their car. That timeframe says 6-12 months. The latter I'm ok with, but the former is weird. Might be just that - encouragement to get new orders (downselling has finished?). Or they gonna start producing SR before clearing all other options.
We just don't know, for sure, but I think the consensus recently has been that there's not gonna be work/capex on 2nd line to get to 10k/wk this year, so the numbers from @kelevra do add up for me. I would be super happy to be proven wrong.
Not sure it will have much impact as their PT was already $470 and BUY, but they get it, one of the few...
I don't think it will. More important is what they say about the gross margins: A consequence of the cost model for TM3 being completely different from S/X. That's the novelty and what is under the radar of most analysts at the moment.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I was wrong about the added weight. My point was that in real world testing by real owners, the car is faster then specs given. The motors are rated for much more just based on the specs. There is no reason that the model 3 cannot best a BMW M5 based on the hardware in the model 3. It's bring limited in software, probably to extend the life of the powertrain.
Reciprocity
Active Member
The M is more about looks then performance nowadays. But the BMW M5 is still a monster at 2.8sec 0-60. Model 3 is going to need a Ludacrous update to beat that in the track. But, when it does, the model 3 is lighter and probably on par with the suspension. Which is pretty amazing when you consider the M5 starts at $102k, realistically more like $115k. I compared the two here before, they are sticking similar in terms of cabin room though the M5 had a slight edge in trunk space but no frunk of course.
Wild guess from Mongo's planet: Brin, Page, Gates, Bezos, Cook, SpaceX. That's enough forward looking billionaires to soak up 29% of the
Less wild guess: every average person that dreams of the Roadster2020/ S100DP/L ...
calling it a fact has been premature because of the possibility that the updated timeline simply means nothing. (other than encouragement to place a reservation)
Elon just said that Tesla needs 3-6 months after reaching 5k/wk to ship 35k.
Even if we reach 5k in a month and Tesla starts delivering just 3 months later the 35k that means they have just 2 months worth of 35k reservations before people who reserve right now can get their 35k in 6 months and this is in my opinion not remotely possible.
The Electrek article stated that new reservations for the base vehicle might get their car as soon as 6 months. Doesn’t this indicate Tesla may go through their entire U.S. reservation list by then?
Assume U.S. at 225k reservations
Assume 5k/week starting today and 30k delivered so far = 150k delivered by 6 months from now.
That would be a take rate of 67%.
More than 5k, or a smaller percentage of reservations being U.S, or SR deliveries for new reservations starting later than 6 months from now would improve that take rate.
Would 67% be positive?
Is this analysis correct?
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Hog Negativity Index is on its way down, after hanging out around a 9 for the past few months. Positive trends usually bode well for the SP.
NOT an advice.
NOT an advice.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
My opinion is no. They’re not gonna produce tons of SR 3’s when they have reservations for Performance 3’s on the books. Perhaps a smattering here and there just to keep the media at bay, but IMHO Performance reservations will soon jump to the front of the line.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Personally, I think it is shooting in the dark to try to speculate on meaning anymore. I would take it at face value. It seems Tesla is going to be able to meet demand sooner than originally expected.
The longs are going to see this as a great positive that the ramp is obviously going better than expected and they are going to be able make cars faster and sooner than originally thought. The shorts are going to point to this as being evidence that Tesla has lost the vast majority of reservations because of constantly missed timelines, quality issues, executive departures, Elon statements, etc. etc.
Frankly I'm tired to listening to it all. Tesla is going to do what Tesla is going to do. Investors and speculators are going to do and say whatever makes their position stronger. Customers are going to get cars...at some point, and be thrilled with them in the vast majority of cases.
Just give me my car.
Dan
5000 per week is the target end Q2, ramp will continue, not stop. Possible we're at 10k/week by the end of the year, then it all adds-up...
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