TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[WarpedOne]

This makes me wonder what the point is in offering the SR version.

LR: 4416 cells
SR: 2976 cells

1/3 less cells for SR translates into 1/2 more cars built/sold with same amount of cells.
2 M3LR need same amount of cells as 3 M3SR do.
2 years ago Tesla did not know where this bottle will grow its neck.
SR is there for the real possibility of GF ramp suffering cell production hiccups.
As it happened, cell production was fine, the neck grew elsewhere.

 

[Mkorpal]

Yumm, pushing through 290.

 

[LoveTSLA]

It looks like that the SP will be over $300 very soon before this Friday. Not a advice.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Apparently production is on track, time for share price to zoom.

500k units at 25% GPM clears what.....$5B? Nice.

 

[jhm]

LR: 4416 cells
SR: 2976 cells

1/3 less cells for SR translates into 1/2 more cars built/sold with same amount of cells.
2 M3LR need same amount of cells as 3 M3SR do.
2 years ago Tesla did not know where this bottle will grow its neck.
SR is there for the real possibility of GF ramp suffering cell production hiccups.
As it happened, cell production was fine, the neck grew elsewhere.

Ok, as a contingency against a limited battery supply, this makes sense, but stationary storage also can play that role.

 

[Waiting4M3]

You got me there

But nothing wrong in trying to analyze what things mean. I generally believe Tesla at face value with a slight timeline extension if they give direct and clear guidance, but this could be read in multiple ways. (tbh I'm just anxious to see EU deliveries started to get my car )

If we assume that SR battery is the last one to be produced, then it means that ALL current US reservations need to be cleared for a new reservationist to get their car. That timeframe says 6-12 months. The latter I'm ok with, but the former is weird. Might be just that - encouragement to get new orders (downselling has finished?). Or they gonna start producing SR before clearing all other options.

We just don't know, for sure, but I think the consensus recently has been that there's not gonna be work/capex on 2nd line to get to 10k/wk this year, so the numbers from @kelevra do add up for me. I would be super happy to be proven wrong.

IMO taking 6 months to clear all US reservations seems possible, at 5k/wk it would equate ~125k. I think Tesla has already sold ~25k M3 in the US. This would put total US M3 sales at 6 months from now at close to 150k. I would guess the total US reservations is ~200k, so 150k could be a little low compared with the total US reservations, but it's not off that much.

At the worst, we have 75% take rate of reservations. But my guess is that there will be people who will wait because of the old "don't buy 1st model year" saying. Some people may wait for other reasons such as not being ready financially or logistically to buy the M3. Or Tesla sees some possibility that they can really crank up production towards the end of 2017 (6 months from now), and can fill orders much quicker.

Overall I think the shortening of order wait time has a lot to be excited on face value. Demand issue is the something that kept getting thrown around at Tesla but has never ever shown up, like bankwuptcy. I'll worry about it when there are actual signs of it. My biggest worry right now is with the new China policy change, there will be too much demand in China that Tesla won't be able to fill in time.

 

[NicoV]

Yeah! If that doubles, we’re back where we were last monday!

Okay, now it has doubled. I should say these stupid things more;

Somehow I have the feeling that I’m mixing up correlation and causality.

 

[dc_h]

CNBC had two positive links today. Please retweet. They like getting traffic push.

Model 3 price hype helps Tesla shares bounce Model 3 price hype helps Tesla shares bounce

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla shares to soar more than 80% on strong Model 3 profitability: Analyst

The analyst raised his price target for Tesla shares to $500 from $470, representing 81 percent upside to Friday's close.

 

[MP3Mike]

I will trade you mine for 3 shares of TSLA, but I get to open it and use it for incidentals for a week prior to transfer.

Didn't you read the terms and conditions? You aren't allowed to sell/transfer it.

 

[ZachF]

IMO taking 6 months to clear all US reservations seems possible, at 5k/wk it would equate ~125k. I think Tesla has already sold ~25k M3 in the US. This would put total US M3 sales at 6 months from now at close to 150k. I would guess the total US reservations is ~200k, so 150k could be a little low compared with the total US reservations, but it's not off that much.

At the worst, we have 75% take rate of reservations. But my guess is that there will be people who will wait because of the old "don't buy 1st model year" saying. Some people may wait for other reasons such as not being ready financially or logistically to buy the M3. Or Tesla sees some possibility that they can really crank up production towards the end of 2017 (6 months from now), and can fill orders much quicker.

Overall I think the shortening of order wait time has a lot to be excited on face value. Demand issue is the something that kept getting thrown around at Tesla but has never ever shown up, like bankwuptcy. I'll worry about it when there are actual signs of it. My biggest worry right now is with the new China policy change, there will be too much demand in China that Tesla won't be able to fill in time.

Here in the US, I suspect demand will always be ahead of supply, enough so that there will be a consistent multi-month wait going well out into the future.

Once the M3 gets into the wild, more and more people will want it. Many people don't even know Tesla exists. The biggest way Tesla sells cars is people getting a ride in their friends Tesla.

Once they're told they'll have to wait 3-4 months to get one, ironically that will just make people want it even more....

 

[Cosmacelf]

Demand issue is the something that kept getting thrown around at Tesla but has never ever shown up, like bankwuptcy.

The biggest thing some people miss is that reservations are very much a dynamic number. They don't stand still. It isn't as if Tesla will run through 400K reservations and then wonder where all the customers have gone. If you promise 6 months delivery, then that will get a lot more people to reserve. If the waiting time is 3 months, another huge number of people will reserve. If you can drive one off a lot when you show up at a store, then another huge number of people will buy. Unless demand is truly unlimited, the wait time will necessarily go down as manufacturing rates go up. Eventually, Tesla will throttle Model 3 manufacturing rates to match demand when stores have inventory to sell, just like they now do with 100K/yr Model S/X. Elon was right, worries about conversion rates truly are boneheaded.

 

[JoaoD]

Didn't you read the terms and conditions? You aren't allowed to sell/transfer it.

There is nothing written in the terms that do not allow you to resell the Not a Flamethrower.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I foresee there always be a bit of a wait time for the $35 SR Model 3, simply because they want to meter production to be below demand. Two years from now the Performance variant could have a 1-2 month wait while the SR would be 3-4, simply because they are only going to dedicate a limited amount of production towards it so as to not negatively impact profits. Where that number is depends on the demand, but the high margin cars will, and from a business sense should, get priority. People won't like it, but getting the wait time down to 4 months from order to delivery is still pretty good and might just incite people to add on a few options: not exactly unheard of in the car biz!

I NEED FRESH POWDER!!!

LOL I moved some more over the weekend, woke up and saw the spike this morning, and said, "Naw, I'll wait!"
(This means it's headed for 300 LOL! Not an advice. )

 

[DurandalAI]

Didn't you read the terms and conditions? You aren't allowed to sell/transfer it.

I’m not sure how they intend on controlling the distribution of physical assets after delivery. That phrasing is there only to prevent liability to the Boring Company, “see, they violated ToS!” And to have a way to legally take them off of eBay and such. Private party sales regulation is virtually impossible.

Plus, who’s to say I would end up selling it anyhow? I probably will have to hang onto it until I get my Model 3, or put it on my Elon Musk altar.

 

[MP3Mike]

There is nothing written in the terms that do not allow you to resell the Not a Flamethrower.

Really? Seems pretty clear to me:

 

[RobStark]

Really? Seems pretty clear to me:

View attachment 302690

Just put a "Not a Boring Company Not a Flamethrower Tesla Elon Musk" for sale on Ebay without a pic.

 

[dc_h]

Really? Seems pretty clear to me:

View attachment 302690

That should really drive up the resale value!

 

[brian45011]

I foresee there always be a bit of a wait time for the $35 SR Model 3, simply because they want to meter production to be below demand. Two years from now the Performance variant could have a 1-2 month wait while the SR would be 3-4, simply because they are only going to dedicate a limited amount of production towards it so as to not negatively impact profits. Where that number is depends on the demand, but the high margin cars will, and from a business sense should, get priority. People won't like it, but getting the wait time down to 4 months from order to delivery is still pretty good and might just incite people to add on a few options: not exactly unheard of in the car biz!

"Over the weekend, Chief Executive Elon Musk announced a new, $78,000 version of Tesla's car for the people, the Model 3. More important was his admission that his promised $35,000 version would cause the company to "lose money and die" if built right away."

Is Tesla Abandoning the Mass Market?
MARKETWATCH 11:18 AM ET 5/21/2018

 

[EVMeister]

"Over the weekend, Chief Executive Elon Musk announced a new, $78,000 version of Tesla's car for the people, the Model 3. More important was his admission that his promised $35,000 version would cause the company to "lose money and die" if built right away."

Is Tesla Abandoning the Mass Market?
MARKETWATCH 11:18 AM ET 5/21/2018

Oh look, it's another article with a question as a title. So the answer is probably no.