TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Sorry for the confusion. It's the latter range value. There were 16 climbs of 30%+, so 16 dips immediately following those big climbs. I looked at all of those 16 dips. I wanted to know what percentage of the dips had reversed with a drop of no more than 12%, 15%, 20%, and 25%. So each larger percentage drop includes those dips that had already reversed. 100% of the dips had bottomed with a drop of 25% or less. No dips dropped more than 25%. Here's another way to look at the data:

13/16 (81%) of the dips dropped more than 12%.
8/16 (50%) dropped more than 15%
5/16 (31%) dropped more than 20%
0/16 (0%) dropped more than 25%.

So if we take the high of $374

12% drop would be $329.12 (81% chance).
15% drop would be $317.90 (50% chance).
20% drop would be $299.20 (31% chance).
25% drop would be $280 (0% chance).

I think 12-15% is reasonable from the high of $374 before earnings. Up or down after earnings it’s anyone’s guess at this point. Given that Tesla missed by 500 cars last quarter which is about 20%, I’ll factor in a 10% miss this quarter and say they come in at around 4,500 (w/o GA3/4 running at full speed).

While it’s obvious the stock will rise if we meet the 5k goal. The question is if Tesla misses by 10% how low/high will the stock be on July 5th?

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I don't think they have the tax credit taper issue.

BMW sells 400k+ 3-series every year.

Model 3 has a lower sticker price (w/out tax credits), better 0-60, lower fuel costs, better residual value, and far higher owner satisfaction. The idea that Tesla needs tax credits to create demand is, indeed, curious.

 

[sundaymorning]

The whistleblower thing does sound a little unlikely. If you're a whistleblower (a smart one at least), you don't go to the press, you go to the SEC. That way you get 10-30% of any fines or penalties assessed.

While we do not know that Mr. Tripp hasn't gone to both the press and the SEC, it seems unlikely because the SEC strongly encourages its whistleblowers to keep quiet while the investigation is ongoing.

The sec has no business in waste or battery safety. Tesla made it clear they threw away the batteries (which would be considered waste). Tripp works at the GF, therefore has no insider knowledge of what goes on in Fremont, he has ruined his career by not keeping his mouth shut. Every word that comes out of his mouth will be used against him in a court of law. As Tesla has stated, his claims are easily refuteable.

 

[Remus]

The sec has no business in waste or battery safety. Tesla made it clear they threw away the batteries (which would be considered waste). Tripp works at the GF, therefore has no insider knowledge of what goes on in Fremont, he has ruined his career by not keeping his mouth shut. Every word that comes out of his mouth will be used against him in a court of law. As Tesla has stated, his claims are easily refuteable.

So it is very important to make an example out of him. And go after his media partners as well

 

[Remus]

I agree on the abundant money - I think that is a necessary condition for the survival of a company like Tesla.

However, I think investors who are thinking of buying a company on the verge of bankruptcy want it to actually go through bankruptcy (albeit prepackaged) to reduce known liabilities and eliminate unknown liabilities.

How many bidders did Larry Page had to compete before he decided to buy out Tesla on a premium?

How much money Apple wasted before they failed to establish their own car manufacturing?

How many venture capitalists in China trying to find and fund a "Chinese Tesla" project?

As soon as the second bidder emerge, kiss your chances of bankruptcy goodbye

 

[CuriousSunbird]

BMW sells 400k+ 3-series every year.

Model 3 has a lower sticker price (w/out tax credits), better 0-60, lower fuel costs, better residual value, and far higher owner satisfaction. The idea that Tesla needs tax credits to create demand is, indeed, curious.

I think you miss the point. What I am saying is that if you are a potential M3 buyer it makes sense to make a reservation this quarter in order to retain the ability to access the full tax credit.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Think twice before feeding the trolls

 

[AZRI11]

There isn't one. Shorts go to hell.
But looking Insane BFPT 12 months out at about 75% (rather bullish) sentiment, $666 looks like a good entry point for a short.

A good OMEN would be Tesla A.I. chip

 

[bdy0627]

So if we take the high of $374

12% drop would be $329.12 (81% chance).
15% drop would be $317.90 (50% chance).
20% drop would be $299.20 (31% chance).
25% drop would be $280 (0% chance).

I think 12-15% is reasonable from the high of $374 before earnings. Up or down after earnings it’s anyone’s guess at this point. Given that Tesla missed by 500 cars last quarter which is about 20%, I’ll factor in a 10% miss this quarter and say they come in at around 4,500 (w/o GA3/4 running at full speed).

While it’s obvious the stock will rise if we meet the 5k goal. The question is if Tesla misses by 10% how low/high will the stock be on July 5th?

It's anyone's guess, but I also feel that this particular dip has a high likelihood of reversing in the 12-15% range. We've got the trendline support below us around $318, which is just a few points under a 50% retrace. If it drops to that, which I think is pretty likely, that's just under a 15% drop. The safest approach is to wait until strong support materializes and the stock demonstrates reversal. To try to catch it before the bottom becomes clear because of the possibility of a rapid rise, splitting things up into several tranches seems to be the way to go. Adding around $320 is a reasonable spot for 1 tranch. If the stock drops below that trendline support around $318, then I think we are likely to find support just above $300 and again in the low $290s. Those would be 2 more spots to consider adding in tranches, particularly since $300 would be a 20% drop. Historically speaking, the stock hasn't dropped more than 25% on dips like this, so I personally would feel quite safe adding heavily around $300. It wouldn't bother me much if it dropped a few more percent before reversing. I would be leveraging heavily at that point for sure unless we dropped because of some really bad news that isn't short term.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I think you miss the point. What I am saying is that if you are a potential M3 buyer it makes sense to make a reservation this quarter in order to retain the ability to access the full tax credit.

I got your point, and I think there is a chance you're right. But a small chance.
I think you overestimate intelligence of the crowd.
Individually, people are smart, but expecting many people on mass to exhibit such a shrewdness? I don't know about that...
That would require high level of being informed about Tesla production levels, about lifecycle of the credit, that you're interested in EVs, ready to buy a car, have disposable money ($1000) that you're putting down just to secure a discount, and that you care about discount. Intersection of all these requirements? I'd guess maybe few thousand people, if that. Most people just get car where they feel they need another one, or start wanting another one.
That you think differently, and internalize this behaviour as a normal one, is probably what made you successful in your life...

 

[AlMc]

I think you miss the point. What I am saying is that if you are a potential M3 buyer it makes sense to make a reservation this quarter in order to retain the ability to access the full tax credit.

I am not sure making a reservation now gives one the ability to access the full tax credit. You would have to be willing to get an AWD or P model to do that. If you want a $35K version model 3 there is a good chance the FULL credit will be gone with a reservation made today.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I am not sure making a reservation now gives one the ability to access the full tax credit. You would have to be willing to get an AWD or P model to do that. If you want a $35K version model 3 there is a good chance the FULL credit will be gone with a reservation made today.

People concerned about getting the full tax credit would have made a reservation a long time ago.

 

[Big Earl]

I am not sure making a reservation now gives one the ability to access the full tax credit. You would have to be willing to get an AWD or P model to do that. If you want a $35K version model 3 there is a good chance the FULL credit will be gone with a reservation made today.

Anyone interested in securing the tax credit without a current reservation should reserve now and order LR+PUP configuration. Other configurations (SR, AWD and P) will be available to configure based on order of reservation.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Anyone interested in securing the tax credit without a current reservation should reserve now and order LR+PUP configuration. Other configurations (SR, AWD and P) will be available to configure based on order of reservation.

Tesla is introducing new paid ‘premium connectivity’ package to support in-car internet features of growing fleet

Now you also have to order before July 1st if you want Internet access on the car to be free. Sigh.

Slowly but surely, all the nice things that used to be free for early owners are going away. I mean this is to be expected but it's kind of sad to see nice things becoming paid as we're all happy our Tesla growing up from a startup into a "real" company.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla is introducing new paid ‘premium connectivity’ package to support in-car internet features of growing fleet

Now you also have to order before July 1st if you want Internet access on the car to be free. Sigh.

Slowly but surely, all the nice things that used to be free for early owners are going away. I mean this is to be expected but it's kind of sad to see nice things becoming paid as we're all happy our Tesla growing up from a startup into a "real" company.

Reminds me of Lexus. Their service center was legendary in the early 90s, now they’re just making profits hand over fist.

 

[kaz90]

Hi all,

Been lurking around here for about half a year now. Love coming here for the news and analysis.

I don't recall seeing this piece posted here when it first came out 5 days ago: Tech Today: Tesla’s Advantage, Apple’s Streaming Ambition, Micron’s Earnings

Contains brief insight from Pierre Ferragu into the bottlenecks. I see that his company (New Street Research LLP) published a report the same day entitled "Holy of the Holies... Visiting the Gigafactory", but access to it is a paid service.

 

[hacer]

I think the problem the bulls may have with presenting this positively is that the obvious rejoinder is to ask, if this is a good thing now, why it wasn't a good thing three years ago. It may add to concerns about managerial competence in the company,

Three years ago there was no solar roof for sale, so they needed to remain in the conventional solar business. Now that the roof is ready, they no longer see a reason to compete strongly in the solar panel commodity market, which has become a low margin market.

 

[Phil Seastrand]

Slowly but surely, all the nice things that used to be free for early owners are going away.

But it was never promised to be free after the first 4 years.

 

[AlMc]

Cross posted this in the 'General Market thread:

@Curt Renz and any others that may have contact with CNBC or other news outlets: Galileo Russell of HyperChange most recent video debunked many of noted short seller James Chanos' claims about why Tesla will be worth nothing.

During that broadcast he invited/suggested that he and Chanos debate one on one the merits of investing in TSLA and the reasons Chanos feels Tesla will fail.

I propose we all do our best to make this happen. Call, email, tweet, etc. to CNBC and others about this challenge. Financial news outlets love to headline news about Tesla/EM. This would be great on a couple levels: A bear and a bull....or a seasoned veteran vs a millennial ..

I have emailed Cramer/CNBC about this......We helped get Galileo on the last conference call and it led to a spot on CNBC where he held his own very well.......Let us do it again.

 

[Boomer19]

Cross posted this in the 'General Market thread:

@Curt Renz and any others that may have contact with CNBC or other news outlets: Galileo Russell of HyperChange most recent video debunked many of noted short seller James Chanos' claims about why Tesla will be worth nothing.

During that broadcast he invited/suggested that he and Chanos debate one on one the merits of investing in TSLA and the reasons Chanos feels Tesla will fail.

I propose we all do our best to make this happen. Call, email, tweet, etc. to CNBC and others about this challenge. Financial news outlets love to headline news about Tesla/EM. This would be great on a couple levels: A bear and a bull....or a seasoned veteran vs a millennial ..

I have emailed Cramer/CNBC about this......We helped get Galileo on the last conference call and it led to a spot on CNBC where he held his own very well.......Let us do it again.

I think @Foghat had a good point. Doing something like this on regular channels, like CNBC, the odds would be stacked in favor of Chanos. But on the other hand, Chanos would never do a YouTube interview. Doubt we’d see it happen either way. CNBC would cut the interview and try to make Gali look silly, and the we would never see the full cut.