No, you're right. They will need 10B capital in the next few years. But, if their execution improves, and revenue continues growing substantially, I don't see problem getting it, or carrying it on the balance sheet. It does become an exercise in balancing growth/spend/costs/debt...
But if they keep growing revenue at 50% for next few years, and get to 50B run-rate revenue in 2-3 years, do you think they would really have trouble borrowing and paying for carrying costs? I'm genuinely interested in your opinion.
I personally am confident they can manage this balance. I feel the most important part of bear theses relies on Tesla screwing up that balance, and shooting themselves in the foot, or another exogenous events, like capital markets closing completely. There is nothing in the way that Tesla behaved that makes it mandatory it continues behaving in the exactly the same way. Different models for different phases of the growth stage. Come to think of it, Tesla was very capital efficient as it was starting. But, I feel it's been very inefficient last couple of years, incinerating serious amounts of capital. That's ok, they traded money for time (or tried to to), but that is a choice that can change. Unless you believe they're incompetent, and we'll have to disagree there...