TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Causalien]

Ooh I forgot Netflix was today.

On-topic, the drop today was nowhere what I feared could happen. There's a lot of strength in the stock.

Yeah the $309 50% retracement support level is really hard to break. Just like the $360 resist.

If anyone needs history to compare this with and see how the stock will move. Check out stock price movements when UAL beat up that doctor and the CEO said some stupid things.

 

[mrdoubleb]

We're sliding because...

• Model 3 deliveries were much lower than expected
• Which means Tesla's Q2 report will be worse than expected
• Tesla added another not-yet-funded project to the list:
  • Semi
  • Roadster
  • Model Y
  • Ford F-150 competitor
  • Solar roof production ramp
  • Now China Gigafactory...

Any analyst worth their dime should know Model 3 deliveries were only lower to help with the 200k threshold. Production was ramping as planned and those missed deliveries will be counted in Q3. this, in fact, is a big win as many people who may have cut back on their spending (say, not ordering Autopilot) will now get the full tax credit and may splurge on extras.

Q2 is irrelevant. Yes, there will be a hefty loss, but they still had something like 2.4 Bn at the bank. Unless they burned through that cash, they have enough to hold over until Q3 and Q4 profits hit.

GF3 was anything but new to that list. Elon talked about it for years and it was obvious it will be in China or Europe.

 

[mongo]

What's your point again?

End of quarter rates have previously been shown to be sustainable.

 

[elasalle]

I bought calls today...

 

[Skryll]

I bought calls today...

Same here. Weekly chart + max FUD + all the recent good news around P3D and margins = ready to bounce back up

 

[hacer]

To clarify, I find his production data reliable. He obviously has a tremendously strong anti-Tesla bias, so all information from him should be filtered according to that bias. However, there is no reason to suspect he is providing falsely elevated production numbers at the moment. He and the other shorts following him are genuinely surprised Tesla is sustaining this level of production.

Fixed it for you.

 

[Causalien]

Same here. Weekly chart + max FUD + all the recent good news around P3D and margins = ready to bounce back up

I bought calls today...

I stayed out. Might be a local trough, but I prefer aiming for SHTF trough. Did sell my BAC warrant that I've held for 10 years though. Now I have lots of dry powder.

 

[Brando]

which leads me back to my question earlier,
what is our best guess of the composition of the outstanding reservations?
what % are awd vs rwd
sr vs lr
etc
isn’t that worth trying to model?

Oh My God ! @Boomer19 just made me realize:
Elon dropped the price of AllWheelDrive by $1,000. The shorts [and Bob Lutz] must be right.
Elon can't figure out how to make a profitable car. Why couldn't I see it before.
Those Wall St. analysts are geniuses !

Or is this just part of the disruptive model Elon tries to follow ?
Nahhh, I forgot, it is just part of his [not so] secret plan.

Try to model? How about just reading the SEC documents?
Seems close enough to me AND it is regulated by our own Federal Government [#1 in the world]. Just ask Trump.
</sarcasm> for at least some of those who bothered to read this far.

seriously - reading SEC documents - annual and quarterly is informative

 

[sundaymorning]

Munro now thinks the Model 3 is over 30% profitable. He admits that the first teardown study was flawed and now is wowed by the Model 3 EV, the only EV to be over30% profitable.

Munro & Associates are impressed with Tesla Model 3 after tearing one apart

The batteries on M3 is 20% bigger but packs 50% more power. Looks like the Semi specs are for real!

This should give the SP a bump once earnings are done.

 

[Quassinoid]

Munro now thinks the Model 3 is over 30% profitable. He admits that the first teardown study was flawed and now is wowed by the Model 3 EV, the only EV to be over30% profitable.

Munro & Associates are impressed with Tesla Model 3 after tearing one apart

The batteries on M3 is 20% bigger but packs 50% more power. Looks like the Semi specs are for real!

This should give the SP a bump once earnings are done.

Agreed. And for long term sustainability, the thought of announcing an S/X refresh with new cells and significantly longer range makes me want to buy more $TSLA. Granted, getting the new cells inside the S/X will not be easy, but Tesla has time to figure this out while M3 demand stays strong. The future of Tesla looks very bright....

 

[wipster]

This article may help as well if it gets picked up enough:
Sorry, Elon — Tesla Model 3 Much Better Than I Expected (#CleanTechnica Review) | CleanTechnica

 

[cheshire cat]

Munro now thinks the Model 3 is over 30% profitable. He admits that the first teardown study was flawed and now is wowed by the Model 3 EV, the only EV to be over30% profitable.

Munro & Associates are impressed with Tesla Model 3 after tearing one apart

The batteries on M3 is 20% bigger but packs 50% more power. Looks like the Semi specs are for real!

This should give the SP a bump once earnings are done.

Would this mean if I had bought his 87 thousand dollar report I could claim a REFUND, with interest @ say- 10%?

 

[-=buzz=-]

Would this mean if I had bought his 87 thousand dollar report I could claim a REFUND, with interest @ say- 10%?

No, the "bad review" was a first impression/preliminary findings while creating the report. Apparently they've finished the analysis and this "new" summary is based on the final report.

 

[Tslynk67]

I think we've just hit peak anti-sentiment and things could turn around from here... sustained 5k+, positive independent tear-down and confirmation of profit margins, thousands of new happy owners flooding the inter-webs with happy thoughts.

Elon hasn't disappeared either, he's re-tweeted some of the positive articles, but he's otherwise, perhaps wisely keeping a low profile.

BTW, I hope nobody bought NFLX yesterday at $400 - now they know what it's like to own TSLA

 

[cheshire cat]

No, the "bad review" was a first impression/preliminary findings while creating the report. Apparently they've finished the analysis and this "new" summary is based on the final report.

No sale or return then;-). Perhaps he should have shut- up 'till he knew what he was talking about-----unless he was pitching?(right term?) for the ICE makers, thought it was odd re UncleJack's (Rickard) comment about his lad' s dismantling of the batteries, (easy) vis-a-vis Munro

 

[Drax7]

30% gross margin per car.
At say an average price of $50,000 per car,
And guess 400,000 sales of model 3 per year.

Translates into $6.0 billion gross profit per year.
Things are starting to look interesting .

 

[mrdoubleb]

30% gross margin per car.
At say an average price of $50,000 per car,
And guess 400,000 sales of model 3 per year.

Translates into $6.0 billion gross profit per year.
Things are starting to look interesting .

Add to that the Model S/X gross profit of, say, 100k ASP x 100k deliveries and 25% gross profit... so another 2.5 Bn.

Now tell me 8.5 Bn gross profit will not be enough to keep the company in the black next year.

 

[jhm]

Has anyone sized up the P&L impact of pay-as-you-go pricing on the Superchargers?

 

[Unpilot]

But ....but...what about the panel gaps!?

 

[andrewt3000]

I think we've just hit peak anti-sentiment and things could turn around from here...

I am convinced there will be a short squeeze at some point in the near term. Q3 results.. Q4 results....

But lately I have been contemplating all the ridiculous negative attention on Tesla. And I keep coming back to this thought... There have certainly been industries in the past that were disrupted and destroyed. For instance... Kodak, and BlockBuster. I am concerned that we haven't seen anything yet. Get the popcorn ready... because Kodak and BlockBuster are peanuts compared to the incumbents that Tesla is going after... GM, Ford, Toyota, VW... Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Valero and Power companies like ConEd, PG&E, Southern Company, Duke Energy, NV energy... and all the miners and frackers of natural gas, coal, and all the companies that support them... like Haliburton, and pipeline companies like Kinder Morgan. Oil rig makers like Transocean and National Oilwell Varco. The Tesla semi competes with rail companies like Norfolk Southern, Burlington, etc.

The list goes on... basically the whole energy and transportation sectors. There is absolutely no precedent for this. It's hard to think by analogy because the scale is mind boggling. I think people don't get this story because they can't fathom the scale of the disruption. I also can't image the backlash. The people that will lose their job... that will lose money in these stocks.

Also I have a lot of retirement money in the S&P 500. Does anyone know a way to be in a similar passive index fund that is lighter on non-renewable energy and transportation?