It’s *probably* a good time to buy since I *suspect* that today’s drop was due to the entire tech sector getting hit due to Facebooks stock drop, which shouldn’t affect Tesla at all, but big funds often trade stupid, so there you are.
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It's really hard to tell, people were saying the same thing for Facebook after Thursday hoping for a repeat of Netflix earnings bounceback and here we are Monday and it's still dropping. Netflix dropped another 5% today. Like it or not Tesla is somewhat lumped in the tech sector, when it comes to stocks it's not about what you know, it's about what other people are going to do.
There's been 4 or 5 of these tech sector corrections the past 3 or so years and typically you want to wait until the sector has fallen by 25% or so and then you buy in and ride to another all-time high. FB and NFLX getting slaughtered like this isn't the whole sector though so don't use either of those to benchmark the sector's local bottom IMHO
stef
Member
I’m thinking also that many are selling going into earnings to protect from the risk of another “boneheaded” call. I myself am a bit nervous of what could come out of Elon after last time (not selling anything though, on fact keep buying).
If he manages to keep his cool (and I expect he will), I think we will rebound regardless of the numbers. How much will depend on the news.
Why does Elon even do these calls when he hates the ANaLYSts so much? Just do what Bezos does and make the other guys do it. The CEO isn't obligated to be in these calls and Bezos can't be bothered so he doesn't.
bdy0627
Active Member
I wonder this too, particularly financial stuff. Let Deepak respond to those things.
stef
Member
I think he’s (naively maybe) still hoping to convince some analysts to get back supporting him by “selling” how good a job the company is doing.
But yeah ... not sure how successful he’s been at that recently.
Totally agree he should let the others talk more.
280 isnt DOTM though, we hit 284 today didnt we? I expect tomorrow to go lower, and maybe even a drop after earnings before it skyrockets after that, if it follows last bonehead questions pattern.
bdy0627
Active Member
Yeah, definitely not DOTM. I'm going with a little bit more risk, not a lot. I was originally going to go ITM with a strike of $300 or $320, but decided to keep the risk lower. The break even price on the $280s is $258. I expect a climb after earnings, which is why I thought about going with a strike of $320, but you know how TSLA can be. I figured I should keep the risk lower.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'd expect the stock would take a hit if Elon were absent.
How long will you continue to believe the stock has anything to do with company performance?
This forum was full of "analysts will have to upgrade after 5k".
How many did?
Zero.
Analysts are not the one to please, they are the one to fight.
This forum was full of "analysts will have to upgrade after 5k".
How many did?
Zero.
Analysts are not the one to please, they are the one to fight.
Yes, non-GAAP is so much better--it's whatever anyone wants it to be.
Why not just issue a press statement (pre-call) that he has a conflict and is in Germany discussing GF sites?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Only if it were true, and it still might not matter. Elon=Tesla at this point.
There's so many different ways you can debunk this notion. You can point out economies of scale - or as I'd put it, SG&A is rarely simply linear with volume. You can point out that Tesla's SG&A isn't going up as volumes do. You can point out that many types of SG&A expenses have a significant time lag associated with them (e.g. expenses start before revenue). You can put out that the 9% layoffs were basically an SG&A cut for Q3 and beyond. You can point out that Tesla is converting the Supercharger network from a SG&A loss leader (also some capex loss) into self sustaining. Or you could just go with the simple approach: who exactly is Tesla supposedly paying now? Hiring for jobs that would be filed under SG&A hasn't anywhere near tracked pace with Model 3 volumes. And there's no signs that they're outsourcing SG&A-related jobs (Tesla has actually been doing just the opposite). And what non-manpower SG&A expenses are they thinking of that are supposed to track with volumes? I can't think of any that are remotely tracking Model 3 volumes. So what, SG&A is just supposed to go up.... 'cause? Do they just throw the money in a fire in order to not disappoint this "SG&A linearly corresponds instantly with volume" short hypothesis?
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I don’t agree. Non-GAAP isn’t false (otherwise they’d be sued), it is the same numbers but analyzed differently. Non GAAP is usually what executives use to analyze their own business quarter to quarter. To take a simple example, a software company that sells three year long software leases, but gets the money up front. GAAP says to prorate the revenue over three years, non-GAAP would show the sale only in the quarter it was made. If that’s the only sale the company made, GAAP would make it look like the company was steady eddy for 12 quarters, while non GAAP would show the company only made one sale and is now in trouble.
To properly analyze a quarterly report, you have to back out all the nonsense GAPP crap and look athe company the way managers do. When a company publishes non GAPP, it is just trying to help educated investors.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Elon just has to remember that analysts are tools, both literally and figuratively. Literally, because no matter how dumb the question, it’s an opportunity to tell the world about the great things Tesla is doing.
So a question about conversion rates is an opportunity to talk about:
—how many 3s have already been delivered
—how many people are getting to drive a Tesla for the first time
—how many orders have been booked for the rest of the year
—how that ensures profitability
—how that profitability lets them grow even faster
It doesn’t matter what question the analyst asks. What matters is answering in a way that tells the rest of the world what they need to hear.
FINALLY! That last sentence is an actual truthful statement and it DOESN'T APPLY TO TESLA!!!
Never said it was "false" Which company publishes standards for looking "at he company the way managers do"? Can we at least save taxpayer remittances by disbanding the SEC?
FirebirdAlpha
Banned
I've also wondered this, but I get the sense that Elon is the only one who has a complete view of Tesla's business future. They have enough divisions now (Solar, Energy Storage, Auto, Autonomous Vehicles) that it would be hard for anyone to know it all.
On questions for the call, what I don't understand is why Tesla isn't more aggressive with shutting down the shorts.
For example, here's one paragraph that just obliterates people like Montana Skeptic or Mark Spiegel:
"We would like shareholders to know the following. We are not aware of any SEC enforcement investigation, action, or pending action over the past seven months. We have seen warranty costs for the Model S stable around $X per car, and warranty costs for the Model X around $X per car. In July, we delivered XXXXX cars to customers - only ZZZZZ refused delivery. We have spoken with Y bank, who is in the process of conducting diligence and is prepared to be an underwriter should we need a bond or equity offering."
A paragraph like that ends the short argument. It obliterates it.
That paragraph would cause the short burn of the century.
Again, the shorts (such as myself) will be pointing to the absence of that paragraph. But trust me, we will all go away the day a statement like that shows up.
Gene Munster pre-ER note:
Tesla Preview: Bumps Remain, but Trend Is Positive | Loup Ventures
Tesla Preview: Bumps Remain, but Trend Is Positive | Loup Ventures
- Tesla will report second quarter earnings on Wednesday, August 1st.
- We are expecting results to be a mixed bag, but remain optimistic regarding the Tesla story.
- June profitability and tariffs could weigh on shares.
- Most importantly, Model 3 demand remains healthy, production is improving, profitability is increasing, and Elon Musk’s behavior is more measured.
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