UnknownSoldier
Unknown Member
I find it hard to believe there's any weak longs left after the past 1-2 years of this war in the market against Tesla.Maybe the short's FUD is working and causing some weak longs to exit.
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I find it hard to believe there's any weak longs left after the past 1-2 years of this war in the market against Tesla.Maybe the short's FUD is working and causing some weak longs to exit.
YA, KSA brings about a lot of ethical concerns. If die hards like us are taking a step back. The more recent starry eyed younger investors might have bailed already. Sentiment on reddit's teslamotor forum seem to be negative on KSA. So I guess many small retails are bailing right now.
That seems like it could be the case. Or I wonder if he is using the Saudi's as a first of many bidder. IIRC with the scty merger there was a "go shop" period where they had to entertain other bids, I don't recall if there were any but scty looked pretty worse and worse at the time so maybe there wasn't. I wonder if they could attach a "go shop" to this going private deal, that could get interesting considering tsla is supposed to be profitable this quarter and moreso in 4th qtr. Say they had a vote by late November then a 45 day go shop period that went into Jan after 4th qtr sales were posted that could get interesting. Anybody ever heard of doing a go-shop for taking a company private or would they just sort of collect as many bids in the first place and go with the best or try to group them together?"I don't think Elon intends for the Saudi's to have too big of a stake. The reality is that they have started accumulating so they forced his hand... "
Not sure why any weak long would exit now, because as we stand it's $420 to get out before private or we stay public and continue as we were, maybe with a few less shorts.
And as things were, we were going fine. M3 ramp was looking good. Rave reviews. I really think the short squeeze was looking more and more likely.
So I'm also of the opinion that Elon's hand was forced by the knowledge of SA's PIF having bought a big stake and he felt he needed to head-off a potential hostile bid.
But yeah, it's a mess right now and I'm personally very stressed with the whole affair.
Something doesn't compute: for example the 2019 CV notes of $920m represent (920m/360=) 2.55m shares exposure, which could be hedged with 25k call options.
When TSLA was down to around $250 then GS could have bought the hedges as DOTM call options for less than $5m?
What are the chances that 4 years after the CV note hedge was sold to Tesla and the price has dipped deeply twice, GS is still exposed and is fighting a rising tide, instead of just flipping their position and rising with the tide?
That doesn't seem to make sense to me, unless GS's short exposure is a lot more than the 2-3m shares from all the CV note hedges ...
Do we have any ideas/rumors about how the 35m short positions are distributed amongst the players?
Because someone is fighting the stock price like there was no tomorrow, and is doing it competently.
This "all in" long is going to sell a few thousand shares due to a margin call. That's how it works when the price is held down $20 below where you bought as much as possible.Not sure why any weak long would exit now, because as we stand it's $420 to get out before private or we stay public and continue as we were, maybe with a few less shorts....
"Silver Lake’s aim is to invest in the carmaker as part of its potential delisting, which could be worth tens of billions of dollars, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said."
Tesla’s Board Moves to Oversee Musk’s Efforts to Take Company Private
The firm [Silverlake] isn’t going to be paid for any work it does to help the Tesla co-founder explore his options, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential negotiations.
Senior executives of Silver Lake, one of the biggest technology-focused private-equity investors, have known Mr. Musk for years and have had him speak at an annual meeting of its portfolio companies on at least one occasion. An arm of the firm, Silver Lake Kraftwerk, had invested $100 million in SolarCity, the solar-power company that Mr. Musk co-founded and is now part of Tesla.
The people wouldn’t say when Silver Lake began working with Mr. Musk on his plan.
Would you feel the same way about Norway's soverign fund which is used to hedge oil as I understand it? I understand the human right differences but what is wrong with an oil economy recognizing that it is soon going to be faced with a future witout oil?
Since we quote him so much...it is getting interesting when the shorts realize that there is no way out.
I am getting used to the idea that there will be no squeeze.The VW event was a quick hit - news went public and shares started disappearing immediately, because this more of a "traditional" buyout which will take time to finalize and execute,, shorts will have plenty of time to cover their positions if necessary.
i’ve always wondered this kind of reasoning in the stock market. Isn’t it clear, that there’s a seller and buyer in every trade?If shorts are covering but price is not rising, some longs must be quietly exiting as well...
Since we quote him so much...
Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
I am getting used to the idea that there will be no squeeze.